Deteriorating relations with China pose economic threat to Oregon
Concerns over China are warranted but there is still time to pursue pathways that lead to competitive coexistence
Deteriorating U.S.-China relations grab daily headlines. Those headlines don’t address how a breakdown in relations with China could present a huge economic blow to Oregon.
China is by far Oregon’s largest export partner, with sales in 2021 totaling $10.6 billion, a third of all the state’s exports. By comparison, Oregon exports to South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia totaled $7 billion. Oregon exports to Canada were $3.2 billion.
Oregon sends China computer chips and electronics, industrial equipment, transportation equipment, agricultural and food products, scrap metal, chemicals and Pinot noir. Oregon is one of only four states to enjoy a trade surplus with China. The Chinese are the largest source of international tourists and students in Oregon.
The reasons for deteriorating U.S.-Chinese relations are serious and real. Proprietary technology theft, human rights abuses, interference in international shipping lanes, saber-rattling at Taiwan and a military build-up are legitimate concerns, as is the budding alliance between China and Russia. President Biden has labeled China an existential threat. Congress is considering a ban on Chinese-owned TikTok. Concerns over Chinese economic and security threats prompted formation of a House select committee focused exclusively on China.
Ohio Republican Congressman Mike Gallagher, who chairs the select committee, says he understands the allure of earlier normalization efforts, but he says China has now shown its true colors. Gallagher, who routinely refers to the Chinese Communist Party, wants to get tough with China. The specter of a Chinese spy balloon floating across America has become a Bat-Signal rousting political batmen to save America from China.
Foreign policy rightfully trumps state boundaries and commercial considerations. However, foreign policy shouldn’t be blind to impacts on regions of the country that benefit from international commerce with China – or to possibilities for commercial collaboration that could ease bilateral tensions.
As a child of the original Cold War, I believe we should exert energy and creativity to avoid another one with China. As we gird for conflict, America should look for ways to defuse the causes of conflict. Most of us aren’t diplomats or politicians, but we can have geopolitical perspectives and ideas of how to move forward. Here are mine:
Show Willingness to Meet Halfway
The Chinese, like Americans, chafe at being lectured to or shamed by outsiders. China views itself as one of the world’s oldest countries still intact after 3,500 years. They resent humiliations suffered by colonization and Japanese invasion. As a negotiating strategy, bullying doesn’t work well with the Chinese. A better approach is to identify and pursue issues with the prospect of common ground. The most obvious opportunity is sustaining bilateral trade.
Eliminate Punitive Trade Tariffs
The Trump-era tariffs haven’t produced whatever results were intended. U.S. consumers largely have born the cost of higher-priced goods, not Chinese producers. Phasing out the tariffs can be an initiative to get high-ranking officials from both countries around a negotiating table. Both sides have bargaining chips and reciprocal needs. China and the United States benefit from international commerce. Decreasing our strategic dependence on Chinese assets, such as computer chips and rare earth minerals, doesn’t have to negate other commercial activity. Talking at a trade table is much better than not talking at all.
Find Ways to Collaborate
The most obvious is coordinated U.S.-Chinese leadership to combat climate change. As the two global leaders in greenhouse gas emissions, joint action can have an impact and an influence on other nations. This would involve sharing a world stage with China, which would be a welcome sight compared to seeing China cozy closer to Russia. Instead of sniping and name-calling, why not propose a big idea – like diverting a small percentage of each country’s military budget as co-equal world leaders committed to peace and progress.
Strive for Competitive Coexistence
The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) is an intelligent initiative by President Biden to enhance economic security, counter Chinese investment and increase pressure on China to play by international rules. But it shouldn’t be seen as an exclusive club. The goal should be to create a strong partnership that China cannot avoid joining. We can address competitive challenges in goods with national security significance and competitive opportunities in products and services than benefit both countries. We can make competitive coexistence the ‘battlefield” instead of creating battlefields fought with bombs and missiles.
Final Thoughts
Like other West Coast states, Oregon is home to many Chinese-Americans who have family ties in Taiwan, Hong Kong and the mainland. For people who have travelled to China, it is despairing to see what began as friendship devolve into hostility. Turning the Pacific Rim into a ring of military bases and missile targets is deeply discouraging.
We can tolerate different economic systems and have faith that our version of capitalism will more than hold its own. We can be fierce competitors without being domineering parents. We can recognize China is not a failed state, nor is likely to be one in the foreseeable future. There are so many better ways to demonstrate our resolve and our strength than to slide into a major conflict that could be fought overseas and on our own shores as well. It is not weakness to seek peaceful resolutions of differences before digging the trenches of war.
Gary Conkling has been a newsman, congressional aide and public affairs professional for more than 50 years.
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