Election takeaways: Time to confront political divide, pursue accountability and broaden access to Oregon primaries

The Red Wave didn’t reach Oregon, but Governor-Elect Tina Kotek and Democrats should act like it did

Oregon once again proved it is a true blue state, electing a Democratic governor, U.S. senator, four members of Congress and legislative majorities. However, close 2022 election contests suggest victory was less a rubber-stamp of one-party rule and more of a wake-up call that policy and politics don’t start and stop in the Willamette Valley.

Much of media coverage centered on the hard-fought gubernatorial race between Democrat Tina Kotek, Republican Christine Drazan and unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson. Kotek was portrayed as Kate Brown 2.0 and Drazan as the Trojan horse for right-wing extremists. Johnson positioned herself as someone who could bridge the state’s political divide and was rewarded with 9 percent of the total vote for governor.

Perhaps the most revealing reflection of the state of politics in Oregon could be seen in Senator Ron Wyden’s re-election. Wyden is one of the most popular political figures in Oregon. He has held townhall meetings in all 36 counties every year since his election to the Senate in 1996. He goes out of his way to support funding and legislation than benefits all regions of the state. One of his best friends is former Oregon Republican Sen. Gordon Smith from Pendleton. Despite all that, more than 600,000 Oregonians voted for his opponent in the 2022 election, despite her public support for QAnon.

The political division in Oregon isn’t a one-way street. The winners of 2022 election contests – from governor to congressional representatives to legislators – should consider it their collective duty to show Oregon can work across the political divide for the broader benefit of all its citizens. Kotek as governor must show the way, not just to score political points but to underscore it’s time to make the Cascade Range a passageway, not a political wall.

In the 2021 legislative session, House Speaker Dan Rayfield previewed a possible path by allocating a substantial amount that Republican lawmakers could divide among their districts as they saw fit. In the 2023 legislative session, a more challenging version of that idea would be to pursue economic investment in promising opportunities benefiting the entire state from computer chips to mass timber to renewable diesel fuel.

See the lack of legislative supermajorities as an opportunity

While Democrats will continue to control both the Oregon House and Senate, they won’t have the ability to pass revenue-raising measures without bipartisan support. Some may view that as a bummer. Oregon legislative leaders in both parties should seize it as an opportunity for cooperation. Previous legislatures have done so to notable success. In our divided political moment, it may take more determination to set the stage for cooperation and stick with it.

Accountability will go a long way

All three Oregon gubernatorial candidates made a point of emphasizing the need for accountability in programs. Kotek’s command of many of the state’s newest programs, which she pushed through the legislative process, uniquely qualifies her to provide accountability through who she appoints in her administration and in her own actions. This may be the time when making accountability an “old record” would be welcome music to the ears of Oregonians.

Broaden access to Oregon’s primary ballots

Another way to subvert hardliners on both sides of the political divide is to open Oregon primary elections to all registered voters. Political parties have a right to decide on their general election standard-bearers. The best way to serve both goals is to give non-affiliated registered voters the option to align with a major party to vote in its primary election. Opponents will argue this dilutes the viewpoint of party members. Supporters argue it will result in more moderate nominees. Both or neither could be true. What would be undeniable is that all Oregonians would have a chance, if they chose, to participate in selecting the candidates who appear on the general election ballot. And it would encourage even larger turnouts in primary elections.

What pre-election political polls didn’t reveal

Political polling in this election wasn’t that far off. What it failed to reveal – and isn’t designed to detect ­– is voter motivation. Exit polls provide the best hints. They suggest the message that “democracy was on the ballot” may have spurred a significant surge in Democratic voting that blunted the anticipated “red wave”.  

Much was made in advance of election day of President Biden’s relatively low approval ratings. Exit polls indicated that many election-day Democratic voters gave Biden a higher approval rating than reflected in polls, and that informed their decision to vote and who they voted for.

Professional pollsters have made technical fixes to their samples to account for the growing unwillingness of certain groups to participate in telephone surveys. Now, they need to adjust for attitudes and arguments that can influence whether someone votes, just as politicians must consider whether such arguments will work in future elections.

The Donald Trump factor

Oregon elections were mostly devoid of Donald Trump’s influence. Washington’s third congressional district was all about Donald Trump, with Republican Joe Kent brandishing the former President’s endorsement. Preliminary vote counts place Democrat Marie Perez ahead of Kent by an 11,000-vote margin, too close to call with thousands of votes still to count. Kent predicts he will prevail, as he did in the primary when he edged out incumbent Republican Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler as votes from rural parts of the district trickled in. That may not happen this go-round because the bulk of votes to be counted are in Vancouver and Clark County, where Perez posted an early 18-point lead. Herrera Beutler was on Trump’s naughty list because she voted for his second impeachment. That list may result in a Republican seat flipping to the Democrats.

The real winners of the 2022 general election

TV stations ran endless streams of political ads starting in the spring until election day. One media report indicated Portland TV stations aired more than 26,000 individual political ads since Labor Day.

Vote-by-mail is a winner, too

Despite political objections and misplaced fears, vote-by-mail is here to stay, not just in Oregon, but everywhere it is permitted in some form. There are many motivations for voting and just as many stumbling blocks. Receiving paper ballots at your home address, the convenience of voting at your leisure without waiting in line, the ease of dropping a ballot in a mailbox or drop box and free postage trumps just about every real or imagined stumbling block.

Gary Conkling has been involved in Oregon politics for more than 50 years as a reporter and editor, congressional staffer and public affairs professional.