Everything you need to know about Oregon politics this summer
PLUS: A new media partnership between The Oregon Way and The Oregon Bridge
It’s been a good year for re-building Oregon’s civic scene. Since it began, The Oregon Way (founded by Kevin Frazier) has served as a modern op-ed page for civic leaders across Oregon. Meanwhile, a new podcast called The Oregon Bridge (hosted by Ben Bowman and Alex Titus) has built a space for long-form dialogue about the future of Oregon with influential leaders and thinkers from across the political spectrum. In the next few months, we’ll be announcing an new media partnership to provide political news and build community across Oregon. Stay tuned!
Here’s a sample of what’s to come: an efficient, news-aggregating newsletter by Ben, Kevin, and Alex hyper-focused on Oregon politics, policy, campaigns, and elections.
Everything You Need to Know About Oregon Politics This Summer
1. Legislature adjourns; some surprising winners and losers
The legislature adjourned sine die on June 26, concluding a five-month virtual session that was productive, exhausting, and unlike any session that anyone can remember.
Who is celebrating?
House Speaker Tina Kotek and Senate President Peter Courtney. First, Kotek quickly dispatched a challenge for the speakership, and Courtney survived yet another leadership election. Legislative leadership tightly controlled the session, forged bipartisan votes on big issues, advanced their priorities, and avoided late-session walkouts.
Will this be the last Kotek/Courtney-helmed long session? See: a) Governor’s Race and b) Redistricting (down below).
House GOP Leader Christine Drazan. Despite being nearly super-minority status, Drazan’s slow-down tactics helped her caucus punch above their weight class (see Redistricting below).
Even more remarkable: her caucus was unanimous in disavowing the State GOP “false flag” position on the Capitol attack, and unanimous again in calling for Rep. Mike Nearman’s resignation (and ultimately the caucus unanimously voted to expel him). Compare that to GOP House Leader Kevin McCarthy’s caucus in Congress — it’s night and day.
Advocates for police reform (kind of), gun control (kind of), climate change (kind of), and housing (kind of). The legislature took major steps in each area — but advocates say there is lots more to do, and that good bills were killed.
Anyone who works in or adjacent to the construction industry. The legislature allocated an unprecedented amount of money to building things all across Oregon (boosted by the “experiment” of giving each legislator their own piggy bank of federal recovery dollars to dole out in their district): housing, health centers, jails, docks, museums, education centers, tiny homes, memorials, libraries, shelters, and more. Check out House Bill 5006 for general fund projects and Senate Bill 5534 for the list of lottery-backed projects.
And who is unhappy?
United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) 555. Alongside SEIU Locals 503 and 49 and AFSCME, the labor union pushed hard for “Essential Worker Pay” (direct payments to frontline workers) — and it didn’t happen. They released a blistering press release saying, among other things: “Kate Brown and Oregon Democrats once again fail Oregon Workers.” Ouch. The next question: will a reduction in campaign donations and volunteer hours in 2022 follow? Which leads us to our next “non-winner”…
Campaign finance reform advocates. Despite the wind at their back from a lopsided ballot measure victory, the legislature was again unable to pass political contribution limits, leaving the largely “Wild West” framework intact: no contribution limits for individuals, corporations, or labor groups.
Hot tip: This policy issue is a lot more complicated than it seems. Limiting contributions could have the affect of providing advantage for wealthy self-funders, where limits would not apply (e.g. half of members of Congress are millionaires, despite strict federal contribution limits). A bill that would have offered public financing to offset this impact died in the Ways and Means Committee.
State Senator and State GOP Chair Dallas Heard, who continued to vote no (or not vote at all) on legislation through the very end of session in protest — even HCR 32, a legislative memorial for former Rep. Bill Markham, who represented Douglas County (Heard’s district) in the legislature for 14(!) terms. Heard was excused.
+1 For Heard: It wasn’t all bad news for Heard…a bill that would have prohibited him from simultaneously being GOP Chair and a member of the Senate died without a hearing.
Former Rep. Mike Nearman. You know the story.
Blast from the Past: The Nearman comeback attempt overshadowed another wild comeback story in the race to fill the vacant House District 23 seat (won by Anna Scharf, a former aide to Nearman). Third on the list of five candidates selected by precinct committee people and forwarded to county commissioners was a familiar name from generations ago in Oregon politics: former state senator and one-term U.S. Congressman Jim Bunn. Nigel Jaquiss of Willamette Week once described him as “someone who plummeted faster and farther than any Oregon politician this side of Mt. Packwood” after he lost his 1996 re-election to Darlene Hooley (following a public divorce and re-marriage to a legislative aide). That was 25 years ago.
2. The race to elect a new governor begins
Here’s our summary of the 2022 election for Oregon Governor. For a detailed early analysis, check out the links below:
Being governor is hard. Gov. Kate Brown is listed as one of the five “most unpopular” governors in the United States, according to the Morning Consult (37% approval; 50% disapproval).
Democrats’ Royal Rumble Primary: And yet, the list of potential successors rumored to want the job is long. Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle, Treasurer Tobias Read, Speaker Tina Kotek, and Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum are all rumored top-tier candidates. Each has the proven ability to raise millions of dollars and win competitive races.
Don’t sleep on labor: SEIU 503 Executive Director Melissa Unger, a powerhouse in progressive politics, just floated a trial balloon. She would be an extremely unconventional candidate, with no elected experience — but our advice is don’t listen to WW’s anonymous “observer” calling this a “joke”. While she is unlikely to run, if she did, she could scoop up big labor endorsements, quickly raise hundreds of thousands of dollars, and campaign on a track record of progressive wins at the ballot box and in the legislature. Plus — she might bring powerful allies with her. In a crowded primary, anything is possible.
There will surely be other candidates, too (one rural county commissioner has already jumped in).
Our take: We know that some potential candidates have thrown cold water on the idea of running for Governor. It’s still early. “I’m not running” should be interpreted as “I’m not currently running…yet”.
GOP searching for a way forward: On the Republican side, the field is wide open: former GOP gubernatorial nominee Dr. Bud Pierce, Jessica Gomez (Oregon Way contributor), Sandy Mayor Stan Pulliam (Oregon Way contributor), and Baker City Mayor Kerry McQuisten are all running. Sen. Dallas Heard and House GOP Leader Rep. Christine Drazan are both rumored to be considering.
Will a third-party candidate complicate things? Rumors of conservative Democrat Sen. Betsy Johnson running as an independent are flying around in political circles. Anyone remember the 1990 Governor’s election?
3. Oregon “woefully underprepared” for wildfires
State Treasurer Tobias Read, co-chair of the Oregon Wildfire Economic Recovery Council, said in a June town hall that Oregon is “woefully underprepared” for wildfires.
The old era of wildfires is gone, he said: “No longer can we count on a manageable number, manageable size, manageable intensity of fires”.
While parts of Oregon are still recovering from last year’s devastating wildfires, it will require massive investment to build resilience in the coming years.
Rep. Dacia Grayber, the only professional firefighter serving in the legislature, said in an interview with The Oregon Bridge: “To make a meaningful difference in what we are going to experience this summer, we would have to [go back in time to] five years ago…we have the conditions for a powder keg…If we avoid the smoke conditions and fire conditions that we had [last summer], it will be a miracle.”
The legislature took action on wildfires (Senate Bill 762, for one), but the resources and scale necessary to meaningfully mitigate serious damage is staggering.
The situation is not unlike the challenge with Oregon’s public schools infrastructure, where hundreds of buildings are at high risk of significant damage due to earthquake (despite hundreds of millions in investments through the state’s unsung but highly successful Seismic Rehabilitation Grant Program).
Climate change (with 117° days) is not helping. The impacts of climate change — including wildfires, deadly heat, droughts and water scarcity — are likely to be larger campaign issues in 2022 than ever before.
4. Redistricting could upend Oregon politics (or not)
Redistricting is constitutionally required every ten years — and it has the potential to reshape Oregon politics. Alternatively, it could sustain the status quo for another ten years.
Speaker Tina Kotek’s bargain with Republican Leader Christine Drazan (equal votes on the House Redistricting Committee in exchange for an end to legislative obstruction tactics) — has drawn the ire of swing-seat congressmen Rep. Kurt Schrader and Rep. Peter DeFazio.
On the deal, Schrader said: “That was like shooting yourself in the head.” DeFazio called it “an abysmally stupid move on her part.” This type of public inter-party fighting is highly unusual in Oregon politics, and it demonstrates the seriousness with which DeFazio is approaching an anticipated rematch with Alek Skarlatos and Schrader is approaching a long list of potential challengers (one announcement is expected this week).
While a failure to pass new state legislative maps would likely allow progressive Secretary of State Shemia Fagan to draw them (all the “required” timelines are out the window because of COVID delays), federal maps would be settled in the courts.
BUT: If past practice continues, any gerrymandering (or gerrymandering-lite) that does occur will likely favor state legislative incumbents of both parties. Federal maps, with a new sixth district to draw, will be a different story, as new candidates (including Rep. Janelle Bynum, potentially, and former Multnomah County Commissioner Loretta Smith) jockey for position.
5. Critical Race Theory is here
The push for racial justice in Oregon since the murder of George Floyd has been swift. In addition to policy successes in police reform (a well-earned hat tip to Reps. Janelle Bynum and Ron Noble for building a meaningful, bipartisan agenda), education, and economic justice, Governor Kate Brown’s Racial Justice Council continues to be a potentially powerful vehicle for shifting state agency practice (and will now be permanent).
While the legislature forged (some) bipartisanship across their agenda to advance racial justice, a new education concept focused on racism is proving to be one of the most explosive political wedge issues.
Depending on who you ask, Critical Race Theory (CRT) is either an obscure, grad-level sub-field in academia with little relevance for K-12 curriculum, or a framework for teaching students about racism with historical accuracy, or the blueprint for indoctrinating children to actually become more racist. It’s quickly becoming a political Rorschach test.
In reality, the CRT controversy was invented to stoke division and organize politically. And it’s working. Public comments across Oregon school boards about CRT have escalated, while many GOP-led states have moved to ban CRT from classrooms at the state level.
Recalls are being attempted across the country. In Oregon, newly-elected officials have a 6-month grace period before recalls can begin.
Fact check: In Oregon, curriculum taught in K-12 public schools must be adopted by locally-elected school boards in public meetings — and aligned to state standards.
That won’t stop this issue from bubbling up at school boards across the state — and likely in partisan primary races in 2022.
What did we miss?
Tips? Feedback? Ideas? Corrections? We want to hear from you! Email benjaminwbowman@gmail.com.
Do you have a different list of winners/losers from the legislative session? Tell us who and why.
Are you running for Governor? Oregon’s 6th(!) Congressional District? Do you know someone who is? Tell them they have an open invite to chat with us — we’d love to have them on The Oregon Bridge or write on The Oregon Way.