Homelessness in Oregon: Some First Steps Toward a Solution

Homelessness is more than a “branding” or “visibility” problem. It’s a serious social crisis that harms the homeless themselves as well as the community at large.

I'm am Oregon-based economist. When I'm not writing here, I'm doing research on state and local government and international competition policy.

"Tent city on the streets of Portland. 2017" by drburtoni is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

Portland’s housing crisis is now in its sixth year. If it was a child, it would be entering first grade this Fall. With kids, the first six years are marked by enormous growth and advancement. With homelessness, these last six year have seen enormous growth but in the wrong direction.

The growing crisis is getting on the nerves of local leaders. Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler says the homelessness crisis has hurt the city’s “brand.” In a recent Metro Council meeting, Councilor Mary Nolan suggested the crisis is a “visibility problem.” In some ways they are correct. But, in others, they are way off base.

The crisis has become unavoidable for residents as well. Wheeler and local officials are correct that homeless camps, cars, and RVs are a blight that harms the region’s reputation. Nearly every neighborhood in Portland has a homeless camp. Most residents are within a five-minute walk of one. It’s more than just the camps and campers, there’s the garbage, the piles of bicycles, and the burnt out hulks of shopping carts. Paraphrasing Mayor Wheeler and Council Nolan, it’s ugly.

But, it’s way more than just ugly. It’s a crisis of public health and safety. And it ought to be treated as such

In 2019, the most recent year for which data is available, 113 people in Multnomah County had died homeless. Many of those deaths could have been prevented if our region didn’t have such a hands off approach. 

Multnomah County’s latest count of the homeless population found that two-thirds have some combination of substance use disorder or mental health issues. Unfortunately, these are the people who are most resistant to treatment. Drug users want to use drugs. Many of those with mental illness either can’t get the necessary treatment or don’t want it. Shoveling hundreds of millions of dollars toward so-called wraparound services will do nothing if the people who need them don’t use them.

The human cost of misunderstanding the nature of this crisis is immense. KATU reports in just one night in May, Portland Fire and Rescue responded to at least 18 reports of fires connected to homeless camps. The number of reported homeless camp fires have more than doubled since last year. As we head into a hot dry summer, wildfire season won’t be confined to the forests.

"Portland homeless & COVID19. July 2020" by drburtoni is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

The ongoing crisis has also created substantial social costs. Walk through a Portland Fred Meyer store and you’ll notice that much of the camping gear is locked behind glass doors. Some stores have armed security guards. Drive around town and you’ll quickly put two and two together: most of the tents spread throughout the region were stolen. 

Surely every resident has some story on the crisis impacting their day-to-day Portland experience. Early one morning, I went to QFC to get some milk. As I entered, two employees were chasing down a man who stole a bag of groceries. They told me that was the third person they chased out of the store that day. I asked where all the shopping carts were. Stolen. It was only 6:30 AM.

Walk through a homeless camp and you’ll see some very nice bikes. When my daughter and her friend’s bikes were stolen in broad daylight in front of my house, the police officer who took the report told me they’d probably end up in a homeless camp. 

Sure, these are just “petty thefts”—a shopping cart here, a bicycle there, a propane tank over there—but these costs add up across thousands of victims and over years of time.

Research from Portland State University found that nearly 40% of Portland’s reported property crimes occur near homeless camps. Nearly 60% of what the researcher calls “crimes against society” occur near homeless camps. These crimes include drug and narcotic violations, as well as weapons law violations, prostitution, and animal cruelty.

But, it’s not just the community at-large that’s harmed by the spread of the homeless population. The homeless themselves are frequently crime victims. Last month, Portland police were called to a horrifying crime scene. They found a hand sticking out from under wood in a fire pit at a northeast Portland homeless camp. Both the victim and the accused were identified as residents of the camp. Earlier this month, a man was arrested for shouting racial hate speech and threatening language while swinging a machete at a homeless man. 

The three counties in the Portland area spent $112 million last year on housing services. That does not include the millions of dollars spent each year on building housing with Portland and Metro’s affordable housing bonds. Metro’s two new income taxes for “supportive housing services” is expected to more than double the region’s services spending. 

Even so, housing advocates say that’s not enough. They say they know what works but it’s a matter of scale. And they need more money to scale. 

This is not true. 

What we’re doing doesn’t work, and it doesn’t scale.

For more than two decades, a “Housing First” or “permanent supportive housing” approach has been heralded as the best solution to homelessness. The approach has two components: first provide permanent, affordable housing for those experiencing homelessness and then provide a wide-range of supportive services to help them maintain their housing. These services can include treatment for medical and healthcare issues as well as mental health and substance use. Metro’s plan goes even further. Their plan includes rent assistance for people who already have housing, job training, tenant advocacy—even classes on how to sue your landlord.

But, permanent supportive housing projects take years to build, and construction costs per unit are more than double private sector costs. The most recent project approved using Metro’s housing bond money will cost more than $355,000 per unit to build. The “wrap-around” services are expensive and require individuals to have both the ability and intent to fully use them. Even worse, there is no evidence that the Housing First approach is effective at reducing the total number of unsheltered people in a community.

In a comprehensive study of three best-in-class Housing First sites, researchers found less than half of participants remained in housing for the first 12 months, while 41% were “intermittent stayers” who left and returned and 16% abandoned the program or died within the first year. If the best programs produce such dismal results, it’s unlikely the region’s programs will produce better outcomes.

Oregonian/OregonLive’s in-depth research on homelessness, “No Space Anywhere,” reported the region’s emphasis on a Housing First approach during the ill-fated “10-Year Plan to End Homelessness” diverted money away from emergency shelter beds that provide immediate relief to unsheltered people. 

There are no easy solutions to homelessness, but there are cost effective things that can be done. 

First, we need enough emergency shelter space so that anyone who wants shelter can have it. Oregon should establish that everyone in the state has a legal right to shelter, and build enough to fulfill that pledge. It doesn’t have to be LEED Platinum, it just has to be better than outdoors. In addition, the state should establish that people have a legal obligation to vacate public spaces if they refuse available shelter. That’s a fair trade-off.

Second, we need a system to track the availability and location of open shelter space. Here we are in the Silicon Forest, and none of our state or local agencies have a method to track shelter space. One city in California began its tracking system with pen and paper. And, guess what … it worked. The Legislature should mandate Oregon establish and run a statewide real-time shelter vacancy tracking system. 

These are just two straightforward steps toward humanely reducing the number of unsheltered homeless in the state. Of course there is more to be done, but these are two steps that can be implemented relatively quickly. And, it’ll be way more effective than waiting a decade or more for sufficient permanent supportive housing to come online.

Homelessness is more than a “branding” or “visibility” problem. It’s a serious social crisis that harms the homeless themselves as well as the community at large. We are not doing any favors to the homeless or ourselves in overspending on programs that will do nothing to help these members of our community get back on their feet.

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