Kelley Minty Morris: How can we Big Think ourselves into economic recovery
The good news is that now, especially compared to WWII, we have far more tools to ready Oregonians for the jobs of the future.
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Recently referred to as "the least political person in politics," Kelley serves as a non-partisan, elected, Klamath County Commissioner.
The size of the COVID-induced economic crater
COVID-19 has changed so many things for us. We travel less. We Zoom more. We go out less. We order take out more. We hope for certainty. We persist through ambiguity. Thankfully, though, some things are beginning to become clear.
In the month of December, the extent of job losses finally started to become empirically quantifiable. Because many businesses were in limbo, or people were still working partially, the impact of the pandemic-related economic shutdowns took a while to show up in the unemployment numbers. But now the picture of just what COVID-19 is doing to employment is starting to become apparent.
Some of the obvious findings: the pandemic will (and already has) shift(ed) where people work, and how much; and, we know there will be future losses in hospitality, tourism related business and retail, among others. Estimates nationwide indicated something like 1.4 million in job losses in December alone.
It’s hard to be optimistic during these times, but amid the losses, we’ve also discovered some opportunities.
Oregon’s opportunities
The turmoil and tumult last year in Oregon showed potential areas of economic growth. In particular, we don’t have enough people cleaning up and managing our forests. The catastrophic wildfires ravaging the West for years were particularly damaging last fire season, and fire bosses say had those conflagrations happened earlier in the summer, the horrific displacement of people and lives would have been a lot worse. We need more people working in our forests; we need to invest in forest management.
Another clear finding: Oregon, like many places across the county, has been in a housing crisis for several years. We don’t have enough homes for the people we have, nor those now displaced due to the aforementioned fires. We need trained craftspeople to build and rebuild homes. A recent report out of ECONorthwest estimates Oregon’s underproduction, basically the current housing shortfall, at just shy of 101,000 homes. We need people to work us out of the housing crisis.
And speaking of crises, experts predict the closing of schools and businesses due to COVID 19 and the impacts of isolation and quarantine are leading to a mental health crisis. And, like housing, we already lacked enough mental health providers. With more need anticipated, we need people to receive training in the behavioral health realm. Importantly, like those that fill the needed contractor and forest worker roles, those that fill these roles will be making a good, living wage.
To mitigate our losses and seize our opportunities, we need to mobilize on a scale not seen since WWII. Then, as is now, the economy experienced overnight changes that demanded people pick up new skills, move to new areas, and jump into jobs they previously had never contemplated.
The good news is that now, especially compared to WWII, we have far more tools to quickly upskill, retrain, and educate workers for these roles. It will take a centralized and coordinated effort to bring our high schools, community colleges, universities, and more into alignment, but that’s the effort Oregonians need to get back on their feet. At a time of deep partisan division, I hope we all can align for Oregon’s future.
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