Loran Joseph: Resisting the temptation to focus on the short run
Even though I know the personal costs of keeping things shut down, the alternative is still too bleak to justify a hasty reopening.
Housekeeping
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Loran Joseph is the former Mayor pro tem of Baker City.
I'm still the Mayor of Baker City until January 12th of 2021, when the new council will be sworn in and select my replacement. While it's very tempting to resign to avoid an awful lame-duck finale, that solves nothing and merely puts the awkwardness on someone else.
So when I was invited by Stan Pulliam, Mayor of Sandy, to a private zoom meeting for Oregon mayors that want to hasten reopening small businesses subject to COVID-19 restrictions, I had to think long and hard about my response and my duty to Baker City and its residents.
Our town has obviously suffered economically from the restrictions. Agriculture is our top industry, so when beef and potato prices bottomed out our anxiety rose equally. COVID-19 also directly struck another key industry: tourism.
Out of town visitors have become a very important part of Baker City's revitalization; we have a fantastic variety of restaurants, art galleries, museums, retail shops, and attractions that were ravaged by the lack of travelers. Hotels, motels, and BnBs have all been hammered.
These impacts radiated out from specific industries causing negative and widespread secondary effects; for example, less driving means less work for auto mechanics and bar closures result in kegs of beer getting sent back to the brewery.
Federal and state government “fixes” have failed to meet the needs of Baker City residents (as well as those of Oregonians and Americans in general). The CARES Act attempted to keep these businesses afloat and employees paid through this pandemic, but there is no way to make everyone whole.
These attempts are made less effective due to inadequately policing fraud, waste, and nepotism. Nevertheless, even if the aid had been larger and delivered with more accountability, there is no mistaking the fact that businesses would prefer to be open and doing what they were built for instead of writing grants and filling out applications for aid.
Similarly, employees would much rather work than sit at home hoping for politicians in D.C. to get their acts together and officials in Salem to provide timely relief. Yet, far too many Oregonians have had to deal with the abject failure of our unemployment insurance system to get necessary benefits out to laid off and sick workers. So it makes sense that people want to reopen no matter what; they are more afraid of losing their livelihood than they are of catching the virus.
We also can’t deny that many of these restrictions have been arbitrary, or that carve outs have been created for those industries and companies that are better at lobbying. Mayor Pulliam is right: we need to continue to fight for fairness and science-based decisions.
Many efforts to refine restrictions have already been accomplished. Our local school district and health department have successfully challenged blanket restrictions and achieved more local control by presenting thorough arguments based on science, evidence, and well-designed plans (and backup plans, and contingency plans). These entities have shown us a path forward when there is a disagreement, and the State has shown they are willing to listen.
Still, some restrictions, as painful as they are, need to remain. My wife and I own a small business in Baker City—a bakery with 11 employees that was in the middle of expanding to a full service location with a bar. We understand the motivations to reopen. We know the business owners and employees that are struggling. We also know the local victims of COVID-19 and their families.
Our local hospital has one ICU bed. Total. Life Flight takes patients to Idaho if they can't be treated here; Boise hospitals average 75% ICU availability at the time I'm writing this according to Department of Health and Human Services data. Portland area hospitals average 81%. The following picture is what you can expect when you are COVID-19 positive, have a fever of 103F for three days, and need to visit the emergency room here:
A rush to reopen threatens our healthcare system, the ability of our school districts to teach in-person, and the health of our community. Businesses that flaunt restrictions may be fined and also face penalties to their State liquor or lottery licenses that would be much more devastating in the long term.
The goal of this group to save small businesses that have been restricted more heavily than large corporations is noble and shared. However, I don’t agree with their path forward. The evidence is clear that enclosed areas where people gather for longer periods of time spread the virus; unfortunately that describes many small businesses, including my own. That is why I cannot endorse Mayor Pulliam's actions, or encourage Baker City businesses to ignore statewide orders and reopen with everything that is at stake.
The vaccine rollout has begun and we are entering the final stretch for restrictions, but there are still months ahead of us before the vaccines are distributed widely enough to make a difference. I would encourage people to fight the failures of our government to provide relief to those that are most impacted by following the recommendations and guidelines.
No Oregonian should have to risk their health to stay economically afloat. No Oregonian should have to put their small business on the line during a pandemic just so they can make it to “normal” times. No Oregonian should endanger the lives of their neighbors because they are so fearful for their own economic well being.
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