The Democrats: Crowded, competitive field expected in primary to replace Gov. Kate Brown
Welcome to the Thunder Dome.
This is our early-summer analysis of the Democratic primary for Oregon Governor. For our analysis of the GOP primary, click here.
The Democrats: Crowded, competitive field expected in primary to replace Gov. Kate Brown
Being governor is hard. Gov. Kate Brown is listed as one of the five “most unpopular” governors in the United States, according to the Morning Consult (37% approval; 50% disapproval).
Democrats’ Royal Rumble Primary: And yet, the list of potential successors rumored to want the job is long. Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle, Treasurer Tobias Read, Speaker Tina Kotek, and Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum are all rumored top-tier candidates. Secretary of State Shemia Fagan is apparently not running -- but she also was not running for Secretary of State, until she was (following some unusual circumstances). Each has the proven ability to raise millions of dollars and win competitive races.
It’s likely (though not guaranteed) that only one of the Hoyle/Kotek/Fagan triumvirate will run — they occupy similar political lanes. If two or more of them do run, vote-splitting (and resource-splitting, and endorsement-splitting) will be a challenge.
Bad Timing: Hoyle would have to give up her job at BOLI. Kotek would have to give up her job as Speaker. Fagan could keep her job as Secretary of State — but announcing a new campaign after just one year on the job is not the best look.
Hoyle has the distinct advantage of hailing from down-state, in Lane County, where she has always performed strongly. Nearly every other potential candidate is from the Portland metro area (vote splitting!).
BUT: Unresolved internal problems at BOLI could pose a challenge to her campaign.
Kotek would be the only LGBTQ+ candidate in the race, with perhaps the longest track record of progressive victories from a decade as House Speaker.
BUT: She’s also earned some battle scars and enemies over that decade in House Leadership (including PERS recipients).
Fagan is young and exciting, and would likely be the “most progressive” candidate in the race (expect a battle over who can rightfully claim this label).
BUT: Just last year, she barely defeated Sen. Mark Hass by less than a point in a three-way race (with Jamie McLeod Skinner).
Rosenblum is already conducting polling for the race. She was a political outsider when she was first elected, coming from Oregon’s court system. She was buoyed in her first race (against Dwight Holton) by being a history-making candidate (the first woman AG), the only unabashedly pro-marijuana candidate (which earned her about $200,000 in campaign contributions) against a candidate with endorsements from sheriffs and DAs, and by framing herself as an Oregon candidate (vs. an alleged carpetbagger).
See You in Court: None of those dynamics will apply to this primary, but Rosenblum does have a track record of suing Donald Trump that will appeal to Democratic primary voters.
BUT: She is currently the target of an organizing campaign by Color of Change and the ACLU of Oregon. They are running Facebook ads with her face in black and white and the caption: “END JIM CROW JURIES. DEMAND AG ELLEN ROSENBLUM ACT NOW.” Ouch.
Read is termed out at the State Treasurer’s office in 2024, so a midterm, open-seat opportunity to run for the Governorship seems very likely. There is a lane for Read’s appeal as a centrist, competent, business-friendly leader (a similar lane to Hass’ in the 2020 S.O.S. race) -- but will it be enough for a plurality of the vote? Depends on who else is running.
BUT: Read (a straight, white man) will certainly not be a darling of the left (see the now-resolved Elliot State Forest controversy and his soft criticism of Gov. Brown and legislative leaders’ pandemic response) — but neither was Joe Biden in 2020.
Don’t Sleep on Labor: SEIU 503 Executive Director Melissa Unger, a powerhouse in progressive politics, just floated a trial balloon. She would be an extremely unconventional candidate, with no elected experience and almost zero name recognition — but our advice is don’t listen to WW’s anonymous “observer” calling this a “joke”. While she is unlikely to run, if she did, she could scoop up big labor endorsements, quickly raise hundreds of thousands of dollars, and campaign on a track record of progressive wins at the ballot box and in the legislature. Plus — she might bring powerful allies with her. In a crowded primary, anything is possible.
There will surely be others, too (Yamhill County Commissioner Casey Kulla has already jumped in). For more context on Kulla, check out a well-reported piece called “How a trail in rural Oregon became a target of far-right extremism”
Who else? Multnomah County Chair Deb Kafoury, Metro Council President Lynn Peterson, and Portland Public Schools Board Member (and Nike executive) Julia Brim-Edwards are three Portland-based, dark-horse candidates who may jump in (though we think all three are unlikely to run). Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler seems unlikely to win, but that doesn’t necessarily make him unlikely to run, as he has wanted the job for years (plus, self-funding can be the great equalizer, or not) and his current job seems terrible.
Our take: We know that some potential candidates have thrown cold water on the idea of running for Governor. It’s still early. “I’m not running” should be interpreted as “I’m not currently running…yet”
There will be at least 3 top-tier, well-funded candidates running — but there could be even more than that.
Blinded by the White: The only person of color to serve as governor in Oregon history is the late Vic Atiyeh (R-Washington County), who was the first Governor of Syrian descent in U.S. history (and one of the kindest, most decent humans I have ever met). Every single one of the potential 2022 candidates listed above is white (as far as we know).
Rukaiyah Adams, Chief Investment Officer of the Meyer Memorial Trust and a prominent Black leader in Portland, is a name that’s been floated for both mayor and statewide office — but she has ruled it out (“this time”).
The highest-profile elected Democrats of color in Oregon are (in no particular order): Portland City Commissioner Jo Ann Hardesty, Multnomah County Commissioner and former Rep. Jessica Vega Pederson, House Majority Whip Rep. Andrea Salinas, Senate Majority Whip Sen. Lew Frederick, and Senate President Pro Tem. Sen. James Manning.
It’s hard to imagine any of them running for governor in 2022.
Former Governor Ted Kulongoski made the unusual transition of State Supreme Court Justice to Governor. Will Justice Adrienne Nelson try to follow in his footsteps? Unlikely.
Rep. Janelle Bynum has already expressed interest in running for Congress, not governor (same with former Multnomah County Commissioner Loretta Smith). First-term Reps. Wlnsvey Campos, Ricki Ruiz, and Khanh Pham all seem likely to run for a higher office someday, but it won’t be Governor in 2022.
Takeaway: It’s possible that the entire Democratic field will be white.
Underestimate at your own risk: Communities of color still represent powerful voting blocs in the Democratic primary. Racial justice issues will still be front and center in the campaign.
Revenge is a dish best served after semi-exoneration: Former Governor John Kitzhaber is 74-years-old, four years younger than Joe Biden. Kitzhaber could mount the most unprecedented comeback in Oregon history for a fifth term. His nearly-universal name ID in Oregon makes a plurality in a crowded primary (which may include many of the same elected officials who abandoned him at the peak of the 2014 scandal that rocked Oregon politics) entirely possible. A campaign would give him a larger platform than he’s had in years. Will he do it? Possible, but unlikely.
Even More Unlikely: Kitzhaber has always had an independent streak and never been cozy with the Democratic Party establishment (he endorsed Steve Novick over Jeff Merkley for U.S. Senate and Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton in 2016). He could leave the Democratic Party and run on his own. But Kitz running as a non-affiliated (or Independent Party of Oregon) candidate would benefit the Republican nominee more than anyone else.
Thanks for reading! If you have story tips or feedback, I would love to hear from you. Email me at: benjaminwbowman@gmail.com.