The economy isn’t the political issue it used to be

Trends like technological innovation, pandemics and supply chain disruption don’t depend on economic policies or presidents

Democratic strategist James Carville famously said in 1992, “It’s the economy, stupid” in framing Bill Clinton’s winning presidential political strategy during a recession. But in today’s polarized electorate, do voters still vote their pocketbook? More directly, do they connect their pocketbook with actual economic policies?

Political polls continue to show the economy ranks as a top voter concern. But what economy is cause for concern? If you religiously follow Fox News or Newsmax, you may think the U.S. economy is a basket case. If you listen to mainstream news, you may think inflation is coming down while employment keeps growing and unemployment remains low.

The U.S. stock market went up as federal spending increased and the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates. The stock market is losing some of those gains amid uncertainty in Congress and renewed inflation concerns. Who gets the credit and who gets the blame? For many voters, it doesn’t matter.

Those who think the economy is in the dumpster likely will vote for an alternative to President Biden, but they would vote for an alternative no matter what. Those who think the economy is making a gentle landing from high inflation rates are inclined to vote for Biden, but they would vote for him no matter what.

The truth is the “economy” is a personal issue. An unemployed worker in a booming economy thinks the economy sucks. An investor gaining wealth in an economic expansion may not give credit to the current President. A family living paycheck-to-paycheck just wants to price of chicken to drop. But those aren’t the only – or even the real – reasons for their political choice. Conservatives may base their vote on border security and gun rights. Liberals may base their votes on climate action and reproductive rights.

The “economy” has always been a fantasy game of political football. Conservatives believe tax cuts promote economic growth, despite evidence to the contrary. Liberals believe targeted spending stimulates job creation and lifts family income, often at the expense of enlarging national debt. (As Mark Hester noted in his column yesterday, there are tradeoffs with most economic decisions.)

Actual data isn’t especially convincing. The tax cut pushed by President Trump raised the national debt, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, by $2 trillion. In his 2024 campaign, Trump calls for more tax cuts, even as his conservative allies in Congress are pushing for steep reductions in federal spending to reduce national debt.

A majority of Americans have a dim view of Bidenomics despite its demonstrated success in preventing a recession or worse during the pandemic, injecting money to revive domestic manufacturing, investing in infrastructure, bringing down unemployment to historic lows and lifting 3 million children out of poverty. Instead, Biden critics point to high gas and food prices as evidence of his bankrupt economic policies.

Biden’s campaign team is trying to adhere to Carville’s admonition but with limited effect so far. The individual pocketbook-effect of the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act is hard to detect. The steps Biden’s administration took to avoid a recession put money in the pockets of families, businesses and schools, but those steps also contributed to inflation as consumers started buying before merchants could restart supply lines.

Systemic issues like chronic worker shortages appear harder for Americans to grasp than many economic migrants who risk their lives to get here to fill job vacancies.

Climate change is viewed by a core of conservatives as a hoax and by liberals as an avenue to rejuvenate the economy and repatriate jobs.

Efforts to emphasize diversity and inclusion are scorned by conservatives as “woke” while being applauded by liberals as broadening economic opportunity.

You can argue over which views are wise or whacky, but there is no dispute they are elements of the “economy” that don’t directly affect the pocketbooks of their respective believers. They are articles of political faith, more like religion than economics.

There is another way to look at the economy that isn’t centered on economic policy. New York Times columnist Ross Douthat cited economic data showing wage growth has been uneven for low-wage, middle-class and managerial workers and the pattern doesn’t follow a political through-line.

There was “a serious period of stagnation from the end of the dot-com era through the mid-2010s,” Douthat observed. “Meaning that at the time of Trump’s first campaign, the populists had a point about economic disappointment, and the 21st century economy seemed to be letting workers down.”

“But then in the 2015-2020 zone,” he added, “stagnation gives way to rapid growth that also became more equitably shared, with the rate of gains for the 50th percentile and the 10th percentile of income converging with the gains for the 90th percentile.“

The pandemic tubed the growth trend and it wasn’t until the last year that wage growth kept up with inflation. The hole people feel that affects their political view is that rebounding wage growth still is in catch-up mode, akin to the learning loss students incurred when schools closed.

The political argument that the economy is getting better but isn’t as good as it might have been without the pandemic is a hard one to articulate, let alone sell on the political stump. It doesn’t fit neatly into a campaign slogan or debate talking point.

Americans collectively sense something went wrong and, if pressed, can point to what went wrong. It’s harder to point a finger of fault at an economic policy or a political candidate. There is more variability in American understanding that the pandemic effects were global or appreciation that the U.S. economic recovery has outpaced most other nations.

Because of a U.S. economy in flux, continuing pandemic recovery, Chinese economic challenges and a land war in Europe, many American voters may zone out on the “economy” and focus on other issues that can be argued on a bumper sticker.

Gary Conkling has been a newsman, congressional aide and public affairs professional for more than 50 years

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