The fund-race for Oregon governor (Democrats and Republicans)
Some surprising cash-on-hand totals and even more surprising contributions early in the race for Oregon's next governor.
Below are two charts that describe the state of the fundraising race for potential candidates for Governor.
First, a caveat: remember that it is likely that several candidates will raise north of one million in the primaries. No one is close to that total yet.
It’s August; that’s very early. The current numbers will have no correlation with who’s actually likely to win — at least not yet. The closer we get to the May 2022 primary, the more that a fundraising advantage will matter. Why? Because money pays for voter contact. Most voters today don’t know much about any of these candidates.
But, there is still plenty to be learned from these early numbers. With that, let’s dive in.
The Democrats
Let’s start with some obvious but important points:
None of these candidates, except Casey Kulla, have declared that they’re running. It’s likely that about half of the candidates listed won’t run.
It’s also likely that at least one or two folks that we haven’t listed will run.
It’s possible that at least one of these candidates will run as a member of another party — or as an independent (we’re looking at Senator Betsy Johnson).
Nick Kristof and Melissa Unger have not created PACs yet, so they sit at zero — but both have the potential to raise lots of money quickly.
So, what’s important about these number?
Much of Senator Johnson’s cash rolled forward from previous years; she has not accelerated her fundraising post-session. But, with nearly half a million in the bank, she is obviously a skilled fundraiser.
This is partly because she serves as a “tri-chair” of the powerful budget-writing Ways and Means Committee — a fundraising advantage that likely wouldn’t exist if she runs for Governor (at least it didn’t exist for Sen. Richard Devlin, Johnson’s predecessor, when he ran in the primary for Secretary of State in 2016). Johnson will have to choose between running for re-election to the senate or governor.
Similarly, Speaker Tina Kotek has done almost no fundraising since the legislative session ended. However, she has a strong shot of consolidating support among the institutional left (think public sector labor organizations, pro-choice groups, environmental groups, etc.), much like Secretary of State Shemia Fagan did in the 2020 Secretary of State primary after a late entry into the race. In other words, Kotek could raise a lot of money in a short amount of time. But this race at this stage is substantially more complex than the ‘20 SOS primary was.
Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle has had a very successful summer of fundraising. She’s pulled in some big checks, mostly from labor organizations: $100,000 from Northwest Regional Organizing Coalition PAC, $50,000 from Engineers Political Education Committee, and $35,000 from IBEW PAC Educational Fund, among other smaller contributions. Hoyle is up for re-election at BOLI, so this fundraising should not (necessarily) be viewed as a ramp up for the Gov’s race.
Treasurer Tobias Read has also been raising cash over the summer, but mostly from individuals donating in the $1,000 to $10,000 range.
Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum’s fundraising looks similar to Read’s, but with more cash coming from out of state.
The Republicans
While the numbers look relatively similar on the GOP side, there are more declared candidates. Of the folks listed, only House Minority Leader Christine Drazan and State Senator/GOP Chair Dallas Heard have not declared (it’s very possible that neither will end up running).
Here are some highlights:
Dr. Bud Pierce is leading the pack — largely because of self-funding. He has given his campaign well over $300,000, though he also has many smaller-dollar contributions — and a $100,000 contribution from a group called Mountain West Investment Corp., a Salem-based real estate development company. In his previous campaign for Governor, Pierce contributed over $1.5 million of his own money.
Consultant Bridget Barton initially pulled in $75,000 from the Freres family (of Freres Lumber). She also has a $150,000 contribution from “Oregon Pathfinder”. From what we can tell, Oregon Pathfinder is a 501(c)4 that Barton and her business partner, Jim Pasero, have been affiliated with.
Mayor Stan Pulliam lacks the benefit of any six-figure checks (at least, he hasn’t received any yet). He has about $140,000 on hand.
Jessica Gomez entered the race more recently and has a little over $65,000 on hand.
In closing, it’s still very early, but here’s one main takeaway from these early numbers: this could very likely end up being the most expensive Governor’s race in history, thanks in large part to Oregon’s campaign finance system with no contribution limits. Candidates who can’t successfully solicit multiple five-figure and six-figure checks will be at an extreme disadvantage.
We will continue to provide analysis on the race to be Oregon’s next Governor. If you want to follow along, make sure you subscribe!