The Liftoff: A national embarrassment for Oregon—plus primary election winners and losers
PLUS: A "shocking" kicker; how bad is Oregon's addiction crisis?; big legislative projects in the interim; OSU president finalists; and more!
Welcome back to The Liftoff! Congratulations—if you’re reading this, you survived Oregon’s 2022 primary election! Enjoy the break from mailers and commercials.
As you’ll see below, this week OR360 is debuting some premium content available only to paying subscribers—meaning it’s behind a paywall. There will be more content like this in the future, so please consider joining the community of paid subscribers today. Subscribing is quick and easy—and it’s only $10/month or $110/year.
As always, The Oregon Way and The Oregon Bridge will remain free!
1. Winners and losers from the primary (and why they matter)—plus, post-primary endorsements
Our full primary election analysis, including winners and losers from the primary election—and why they matter moving forward—is available here. As thank you to our hundreds of paying OR360 subscribers, our primary election analysis is only for subscribers. If you’d like to join the community of paid subscribers, you’ll be able to access this content and more, too!
Immediately following the primary, some big names made endorsements in the historic three-person primary election between Betsy Johnson, Christine Drazan, and Tina Kotek.
Johnson has earned two prominent endorsements from former office holders: former Governor Ted Kulongoski (D) and former Senator Gordon Smith (R).
Kotek was endorsed by her former rival, Nick Kristof.
2. The elections debacle in Clackamas County is a national embarrassment for Oregon
By now, you have almost certainly heard about the ballot counting debacle in Clackamas County Elections Division run by Clerk Sherry Hall. Here are some headlines from across the country (not including the dozens of Oregon headlines):
The Washington Post (via AP): Pressure mounts over Oregon primary ballot fiasco
The New York Post: Ballot fiasco delays results in Oregon, vote-by-mail pioneer
The New York Times: Mail ballot problems will delay results in two counties in Pennsylvania and Oregon
Secretary of State Shemia Fagan has called the delays “unacceptable”. Clackamas County Chair Tootie Smith has criticized Hall (an independently elected official). Rep. Janelle Bynum has called for a legislative inquiry. 6th congressional district candidate Loretta Smith has asked Gov. Kate Brown to declare a state of emergency and intervene in Clackamas County.
There is no doubt this will be a story to watch in the coming months. Hall is up for reelection this November.
One important note: There has been no evidence (or even suggestion) of fraudulence—critics are questioning the timeliness and competence of the clerk’s office, not the outcomes of elections.
3. “Nothing short of shocking”: Is Oregon headed for a record $3 billion kicker?
Oregon has collected far more revenue than anticipated—meaning the kicker (a tax rebate) could “kick” again.
“We never really could have imagined the sort of things we have seen in the past couple of months. What that has left us with is unprecedented balances for the current cycle,” the state’s chief economist, Mark McMullen, told legislative leaders.
But—economists warn that there are some signs of a potential economic downturn could significantly reduce or wipe out the kicker.
Additionally, it’s worth noting that despite record revenue collection (driven in part due to capital gains from wealthy Oregonians), purchasing power for the average Oregonian is actually down from what it was a year ago, according to the state.
Head to Wikipedia for an easy-to-understand refresher of how the kicker works.
4. How bad is Oregon’s addiction crisis?
According to CDC data, reported by Willamette Week, “deaths from drug overdoses in Oregon rose 33.6% in 2021”. The widespread emergence of fentanyl in the west coast drug market is driving the increase. Deaths from drugs and/or alcohol totaled nearly 250,000 nationally last year.
Here are some highlights from Nick Kristof’s recent reporting on the crisis:
Drug pricing trends are moving in the wrong direction: fentanyl and meth are both getting cheaper. A high from either only costs about $5 today.
“Overall, fentanyl is now the leading cause of death among Americans ages 15 to 45.”
Pills laced with fentanyl are oftentimes “indistinguishable” from the real things—and taking a single pill can be enough to kill.
Only 10% of those who struggle with addiction have access to treatment.
From Kristof: “Let’s just be clear: This response is a scandal. It’s a failure of the political system, of public health and medicine, of journalism, and of the private sector. We lose far more people each week to addiction than were lost in the 9/11 attacks, and yet we can’t muster a firm response.”
5. Cheri Helt on her vision for BOLI—and how she would handle controversial decisions
Cheri Helt is a candidate for Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor and Industry (BOLI) and a former state representative from Bend. She finished in second place in the primary; she will face civil rights attorney Christina Stephenson in the general.
In this episode, we talk about her experience as a moderate Republican in the legislature (including a couple of difficult votes she took on the Student Success Act and vaccines). We also cover her vision for the role of Labor Commissioner (apprenticeships, workforce development, BOLI staffing, etc). We have an interesting exchange on the famous "Sweet Cakes by Melissa" decision regarding LGBTQ+ rights and religious freedom (which played out under Commissioners Brad Avakian and Val Hoyle, but may be resolved by the next Commissioner).
6. Big legislative projects get moving in the interim
House Speaker Dan Rayfield has created a legislative work group to “to consider budget, legal and service questions that will arise if the U.S. Supreme Court follows through with a decision to overturn or restrict a federal constitutional right to abortion,” according to Pamplin. Legislative members include Reps. Travis Nelson and Andrea Valderrama and Sens. Elizabeth Steiner Hayward and Kate Lieber.
State Rep. Khanh Pham of Portland has been appointed to the legislative committee in charge of overseeing the I-5 bridge replacement project. WW calls her “a leading skeptic of the Oregon Department of Transportation’s record on massive highway projects”. Check out this interview where she describes her vision and concerns with the project.
7. Oregonians agree: child care affordability is critical—and access is already a challenge
Thanks to our friends at the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center for this week’s graphic. Their research shows an overwhelming majority of Oregonians support making childcare more affordable—even if that means paying more in taxes. Additionally, it shows that accessing affordable childcare is a significant challenge in the current environment.
8. News Roundup: Intel, Dutch Bros, OSU, and wildfires
The next president of Oregon State University will be a person of color. Jayathi Murthy of UCLA and Charles Martinez of University of Texas at Austin (and formerly of the UO) are the two finalist.
Dutch Bros. founder Travis Boersma lost over $500 million after the company’s stock price fell last week.
Intel will build a $700 million “mega lab” facility in Hillsboro to study ways to make data centers operate more efficiently.
Compare spending by office using this super-handy campaign finance tool created by The Portland Record.
If you thought a rainy spring in the Willamette Valley would mean no fire risk this summer, you were wrong. State leaders are concerned that drought conditions and labor shortages will make firefighting a significant challenge this summer.
Thank you for reading.
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About the Authors
Ben Bowman is the chair of the Tigard-Tualatin School Board and a Democratic candidate for Oregon House District 25 (Tigard and Beaverton). In his day job, he works for the Oregon Department of Education. Previously, he worked as a legislative aide for former Reps. Margaret Doherty and Val Hoyle. He also co-hosts The Oregon Bridge podcast. In the newsletter and podcast, he speaks only for himself.
Alex Titus is a small business owner and consultant to businesses, nonprofits, and associations. Previously, he served as an Advisor in the Trump Administration and as a Policy Advisor to President Trump’s Super PAC. His writing has appeared in National Review, Fox News, The Hill, RealClearPolitics, and other publications. He also co-hosts The Oregon Bridge podcast.
The kicker is taxpayers only protection from a state full of liberals that constantly raise taxes and fees, often calling them something else to hide what they really are.