The Liftoff: Betting market predictions for the next Oregon Governor
PLUS: The first TV campaign ad of 2022; Oregon in the national news; a deep dive with Jimmy Crumpacker; public education issues in the new year; and McLeod Skinner ramps up campaign.
Welcome to the first Liftoff of 2022!
Over the holidays, I finished Malcolm Gladwell’s “Miracle and Wonder: Conversations with Paul Simon”, an audiobook/podcast hybrid about one of the greatest songwriters in history (highly recommended!). Since then, I’ve been thinking about Simon’s “American Tune” and how relevant it feels as we end another pandemic year dominated by political division:
And I don't know a soul who's not been battered
I don't have a friend who feels at ease
I don't know a dream that's not been shattered
Or driven to its knees
And yet, despite all the dreams shattered by COVID-19, it’s hard to escape the hope and optimism of a new year and a clean slate. And who would want to? Here’s to new dreams and better times for all of us, and for Oregon, in 2022.
Start the new year right and join the Oregon360 community by becoming a paid subscriber for just $10/month!
1. What do the betting markets say about the race for Oregon Governor?
The online betting market PredictItt gives Democrats a 72% chance of winning the Oregon Governor’s race in 2022; Republicans’ probability is 24% and there’s no price/probability for an independent candidate. The market believes the Democratic primary will be a close one, with Speaker Tina Kotek given a 42% chance of winning and Nick Kristof given a 40% chance of winning. Treasurer Tobias Read is at 8%.
Nick Kristof continues to bring in major cash, clearing the $2.5 million mark. Kristof is also finding more observers who believe he meets Oregon’s residency requirement for running for Governor. This time, journalist Jim Redden cites the obscure (but similar) case of former Rep. Bill Wyatt (who also served as chief of staff to Governor John Kitzhaber and as the longtime head of the Port of Portland).
On the GOP side, Mayor Stan Pulliam has launched the first TV ad of the primary: “New Year, New Governor”.
A word from a former Governor: Dick Hughes has a new column that features a systems-level critique of budgeting and policymaking in Oregon from Kitzhaber:
“Each legislative session and budget cycle seem to operate almost in isolation from one another — from what came before and what must come next — with the only certain thing linking the policy and budget decisions of one session with another being the intervening, and increasingly toxic, election cycle.”
Last week, Oregon Governor Kate Brown was inducted into the LGBTQ Victory Hall of Fame for her contributions to advancing LBGTQ political power.
From The O, first reported in The Liftoff: “People for Portland co-founders join Oregon governor’s race as advisers to Betsy Johnson”
2. Timber lawsuits, mug shots, and mayors: legislative news
“Dragging Oregon into the 20th Century”: Independent journalist Jacob Fenton has launched a project called “The Portland Record”, which aims to make campaign finance records more accessible and user friendly than ORESTAR allows. Check it out.
Rep. Chris Hoy (recently appointed to replace Brian Clem) will run for mayor of Salem. Current Mayor Chuck Bennett will not run for re-election.
The Oregonian has a rundown of all the new bills that will take effect on January 1. It includes everything from police reform to over-the-counter Sudafed to class sizes.
Included on this list is a bill that limits the release of booking photos (mug shots) by law enforcement agencies. House Bill 3273, chief sponsored by Rep. Brad Witt and Rep. Janelle Bynum, passed on a bipartisan basis.
A new law intended to expand affordable housing is not making some municipalities happy.
Sen. Lew Frederick calls for a settlement to the Forest Trust Land Counties timber controversy.
“Benefit navigators” are coming to public universities and community colleges in Oregon, thanks to Rep. Jeff Reardon and others who sponsored House Bill 2835.
Competitive Primary Alert: Travis Nelson, a candidate for the seat being vacated by Speaker Tina Kotek, is hiring a Field Director (he already has a campaign manager). His primary opponent, Eric Delehoy, posted an opening for a campaign manager on December 9.
3. “Modern America’s most successful secessionist movement”: Oregon in the national spotlight
A fascinating and sad deep dive on the “Greater Idaho” movement from Antonia Hitchens at The Atlantic. Here’s an excerpt:
Greater Idaho supporters I met often articulated the movement’s aims in the same terms McCarter and Kreitner used. “This is actually very American, choosing our own government,” Gilson, the county captain, told me. “It was all about choosing our government when we left England in the Revolutionary War.” Some proponents of Greater Idaho swiftly offer another American revolution—or another civil war—as the backup plan if moving the border doesn’t work out. The aesthetic of armed politics is still ingrained in recent memory in eastern Oregon; just five years ago, in Harney County, Bundy led a 41-day armed takeover of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge that led to a standoff with the federal government.
“‘The Fuse Has Been Blown,’ and the Doomsday Glacier Is Coming for Us All” from The Rolling Stone, featuring the analysis of Erin Pettit, a glaciologist at Oregon State University. Here’s an excerpt:
Given the ongoing war for American democracy and the deadly toll of the Covid pandemic, the loss of an ice shelf on a far-away continent populated by penguins might not seem to be big news. But in fact, the West Antarctic ice sheet is one of the most important tipping points in the Earth’s climate system. If Thwaites Glacier collapses, it opens the door for the rest of the West Antarctic ice sheet to slide into the sea. Globally, 250 million people live within three feet of high tide lines. Ten feet of sea level rise would be a world-bending catastrophe. It’s not only goodbye Miami, but goodbye to virtually every low-lying coastal city in the world.
4. Jimmy Crumpacker might not be who you think he is
This may be our most surprising podcast episode to date. Folks may remember Jimmy Crumpacker as a candidate for Oregon's 2nd Congressional District in 2020, running as a staunchly conservative Republican (he had a popular ad that labeled him as a "Trumpbacker") to replace retiring Congressman Greg Walden. In a tight four-way race, he finished behind eventual winner Congressman Cliff Bentz, Knute Buehler, and Jason Atkinson. Now, Crumpacker is running again, this time in the new, ultra-competitive 5th Congressional District.
He will face former Mayor Lori Chavez DeRemer in the primary (Congressman Kurt Schrader faces Jamie McLeod Skinner in the Democratic Primary). This episode starts with Jimmy's personal background, but veers quickly into a fascinating conversation on global geopolitics, including how the U.S. should handle China. This conversation on foreign affairs was the deepest of any we've had so far, and we really enjoyed it. We also talk about two of Jimmy's "celebrity donors", his beliefs on investing government funds, why 2020 was a challenging year for new candidates, and how he plans to appeal to voters of color this cycle.
5. One big issue that will dominate state politics 2022: the future of public education
Read this devastating portrait of the impact of the pandemic from NPR. Here’s the headline: “$17 trillion: That’s how much the pandemic could take away from today’s kids”. Here are two big takeaways:
The big picture: “With less schooling, children learn fewer skills. That takes them out of the running for higher-wage jobs. If they don't make up the time lost in school, it could potentially lead to lost earning over a lifetime.”
The upside: “…there is still time to recover.” There first recommendation is to invest in education, noting that “only about 3% of government COVID relief funds globally have gone to education so far.”
So how are things going in Oregon? From KGW: “By many accounts, this school year has seemed harder than even last year’s issues related to remote learning. Teachers and educators have told us they’re feeling overwhelmed from the fights, classroom disruptions, and heightened anxiety of in-person school.”
Expect public education to be a big issue in state politics in 2022. Candidates for governor have been elevating education issues since they announced; legislative candidates will follow. Mask mandates, vaccine requirements, and potential closures will all be debated in 2022—and so will racial justice, equity, pride flags, Black Lives Matter symbols, and other hot-button issues that dominated 2021.
6. Merkley champions tribal sovereignty; McLeod Skinner ramping up campaign
Jamie McLeod Skinner is hiring a campaign manager. She also recently announced a slate of new endorsements, including some, like State Rep. Jeff Reardon, who previously endorsed her primary opponent, Congressman Kurt Schrader.
Senator Jeff Merkley has proposed a tribal sovereignty bill, as reported by OPB: “For more than 35 years, the Grand Ronde and the Siletz tribes of American Indians have been bound by legal agreements that strip them of the right to manage their own hunting and fishing seasons on tribal land. [Merkley], an Oregon Democrat, is sponsoring legislation that would give those tribes a chance to renegotiate those agreements with the state and the federal governments.”
7. Dutch Bros. founder’s group escalates dispute with Oregon Racing Commission while Tribal leaders ask executive branch leaders for help
Keep your eyes on this one: The dispute between a group backed by Dutch Bros founder Travis Boersma and Tribal leaders in Oregon continues to escalate. Boersma’s group has filed a lawsuit against the Oregon Racing Commission; meanwhile, at the urging of Tribal leaders, Secretary of State Shemia Fagan’s office will be auditing the Commission.
Burying the lede: Oregon will get $92 million in 2022 for clean drinking water. But the money “will only put a small dent in what is required, with Oregon cities needing at least $23 billion over the next two decades to to fund the cost of repairing, replacing and upgrading water infrastructure.”
Oregon’s health insurance marketplace outpacing last year’s enrollment; and there’s still time to sign up!
8. News Round-up
Scott Asphaug will serve as Acting U.S. Attorney for Oregon while the White House determines on a permanent appointment.
“How Portland leaders fumbled through a historic year of disorder, violence and despair” from The O.
Oregon and Washington broke records for annual deaths in 2021. Tom Banse has the story.
We finally know what happened with the false leak against Portland Commissioner Jo Ann Hardesty: internal investigation finds officers (including the union president) acted inappropriately and retaliated against Hardesty.
The (COVID) Good: Predicted Oregon COVID hospitalization surge revised significantly downward. And Bad: COVID cases across the country soar to highest level on record.
Drink Up: Oregon distillers to see a boost in Europe after the removal of Whiskey tariffs.
CNN: “Two Trump-appointed judges reject comparisons between January 6 and Portland unrest”
Be Careful Salem: “3 patients in Salem diagnosed with first-ever Oregon cases of serious fungal infection”
The Oregon Ducks fall short (again) at the Alamo Bowl.
Wild video from Zane Sparling at The O showing what appears to be a shoot out in NE Portland. Over 100 shots were fired. Story here.
Thank you for reading.
Tips? Feedback? Ideas? Corrections? We want to hear from you! Email benjaminwbowman@gmail.com.
If you value this newsletter, please become a paying subscriber today. Your support will help us grow and offer more opportunities to this community. It’s just $10 a month!
Interested in advertising with us? Get in touch!