The Liftoff: Betting odds, polling averages, and projections
PLUS: The end of Democratic supermajorities?; an increasingly bitter fight for Portland city commissioner; eye-popping wealth inequality in Oregon; the RGA's record-breaking investment; and more!
Welcome back to The Liftoff!
Tomorrow is the big day! After months of record-breaking spending, incessant TV commercials and digital ads, and flooded mailboxes, by tomorrow evening we’ll know the outcome—at least in some races! To all the candidates and campaign workers/volunteers who read this newsletter, thanks for being part of this community.
Stay tuned for next week’s Liftoff where we’ll help make sense of the results and interpret what they might mean for Oregon’s future. If you want to be sure not to miss any exclusive content, we recommend becoming a paid subscriber now.
1. Betting odds and polling averages in the Governor’s race
Here are the latest projections for the Governor’s race (as of Sunday, November 6—these projections change constantly):
PredictIt (betting market): 55¢ for Kotek (a significant swing in the last few days from a high of 61¢ for Drazan).
538 Polling Average: Kotek wins in 55 out 100 simulations.
RCP Polling Average: An exact tie! 40.8% for Kotek and 40.8% for Drazan (12.8% for Johnson).
RCP is projecting that Drazan will win.
Cook Political Report: They call the race a “toss up”.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Oregon is one of five “toss up” gubernatorial races in the country.
Here are some other quick hits from the race:
Trevor Noah made fun of an Oregon Right to Life ad that says “babies need to watch their backs because of Tina Kotek”.
Willamette Week looks at how the two leading candidates are co-opting each others’ messages in the final days of the campaign.
The Republican Governors Association has donated an additional $1.25 million to Christine Drazan. How does their support for Drazan compare to their investments in previous races? Here are the numbers, courtesy of Reagan Knopp:
2010: $2.775 million to Chris Dudley
2014: $0 to Dennis Richardson
2016: $0.125 million to Bud Pierce
2018: $3.325 million to Knute Buehler
2022: $6.95 million to Christine Drazan
2. The end of Democratic supermajorities in Oregon?
Here’s the lede on an OPB article: “The GOP is almost certain to eat into Democratic supermajorities this year. The question is by how much.” Here are some key takeaways from the article:
Senate Majority Leader Rob Wagner is confident that Sen. Jeff Golden will win re-election.
Senate GOP Strategist Bryan Iverson is confident that Sen. Kim Thatcher will win re-election.
There were no bold predictions in the other two key “swing races”: Senate District 10 between Sen. Deb Patterson and Rep. Raquel Moore-Green, and Senate District 20 between Sen. Bill Kennemer and Rep. Mark Meek.
The article concludes that the GOP has a path at winning or tying the Senate—but says “it will have to be a truly terrible year for Democrats for the GOP to claim enough seats to win even a piece of the House majority.”
The Oregonian analyzed the ten most competitive state house seats, including fundraising numbers and registration edges.
OPB takes a look at some of the incendiary mailers focused on abortion that are hitting mailboxes in competitive legislative races.
The House Conduct Committee has rejected former state rep. Diego Hernandez’ complaints against Tina Kotek.
Speaker Dan Rayfield and Majority Leader Julie Fahey issued a statement indicating that they will be pursuing changes to the legislature’s harassment policies.
3. What the national experts are saying about Oregon’s congressional races
Here are some of the national projections for Oregon’s congressional seats (as of Sunday, November 6):
CD 4 (Hoyle vs. Skarlatos):
538 Polling Average: Hoyle wins in 87 of 100 simulations (with a projected 50.8% of the popular vote)
RCP Rating: Toss up
Cook Political Report: Leans Democratic
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic
Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic
CD 5 (McLeod Skinner vs. Chavez DeRemer):
538 Polling Average: Chavez DeRemer wins in 58 of 100 simulations (with a projected 50.7% of the popular)
RCP Rating: Leans Republican
Cook Political Report: Leans Republican
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Republican
Inside Elections: Tilt Republican
CD 6 (Salinas vs. Erickson):
538 Polling Average: Salinas wins in 72 of 100 simulations (with a projected 49.5% of the popular vote)
RCP Rating: Toss up
Cook Political Report: Leans Democratic
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic
Inside Elections: Toss up
One other story worth noting for the congressional races:
Mike Erickson has loaned his campaign over $2.4 million, vaulting him past Rep. Andrea Salinas in fundraising totals.
4. State Treasurer Tobias Read joins the Oregon Bridge and talks running for governor and what else he’s been up to
In this episode, State Treasurer Tobias Read reflects on his experience running for Governor, provides updates on some hot topics at Treasury (e.g. the “work from home” dispute), and muses on what his future might look like after he is term-limited in two years. We talk about his recent New York Times op-ed (A Sneaky Form of Climate Obstruction Hurts Pension Funds), PERS, crypto/blockchain, and more.
5. An increasingly bitter fight for Portland city commissioner
The battle between Commissioner Jo Ann Hardesty and Rene Gonzalez is becoming increasingly bitter (bonus from the WW article: which commissioner did Hardesty call an “*sshole” on a hot mic?) as we head into election night, with Gonzalez’s campaign issuing a cease-and-desist letter to Hardesty and an intense exchange on Twitter about race.
From Willamette Week: “Mayor’s Office and Metro Officials Spar Over Idea to Reallocate Homelessness Dollars to Benefit Portland”
From the Oregonian: “Housed Portlanders support city proposal to ban homeless camping, poll finds; unhoused people, experts oppose it”
Nearly half of fires in Portland were started in homeless camps, according to Willamette Week.
6. Two must-read items
First, the Oregon Center for Public Policy is out with a report on wealth inequality in Oregon—and the numbers are staggering. Here are two excerpts:
“How extreme is wealth inequality in Oregon? So extreme that, together, three billionaires residing in the state have about twice the wealth as that of the entire bottom half of Oregonians.”
“The wealthiest 1 percent of Oregonians collectively own about $588 billion, more than a third of all wealth in the state and more than the bottom 90 percent of Oregonians own together.”
The Oregonian is out with a profile on labor leader Melissa Unger, who serves as Executive Director of SEIU 503. Here are a couple of highlights:
“The native Oregonian is poised to play an even larger role in state politics if Democratic candidate for governor Tina Kotek, a close confidant, wins election on Tuesday.”
The article also discusses Unger’s role in election for House speaker, the 2020 primary for secretary of state, and key ballot measures and bills.
7. Is common ground still possible in Oregon politics?
Thanks to our friends at the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center for this week’s graphic showing that most Oregonians agree that common ground still exists in Oregon politics.
8. News Roundup: Road rage, Halloween candy, and rainy day funds
In a move being called “problematic” by legal experts, Marion County Deputy District Attorney Brendan Murphy encouraged a judge in a competitive re-election race to rule on a sex abuse case prior to the election “because it is informative for the electorate”. Read about the race between Judge Erious Johnson Jr. and Amy Queen for a seat on the Marion County Circuit Court.
You can also read about another interesting judicial race—this one between incumbent Lane County Circuit Court Judge Beatrice Grace and Rep. Marty Wilde.
Yikes: Mayor Dowen Jones of the small town of Rufus was booked on charges of attempted murder and assault after a road rage incident ended with him shooting at a vehicle with four passengers (including two children).
Eugene police are investigating razor blades that were found in candy given out to kids.
A US federal court ruled that a beauty pageant could prohibit a transgender woman from Oregon from competing. The opinion was delivered by the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals and became a quick national story.
Oregon has dramatically increased its “rainy day funds”, from 0% in 2007 to 12.7% in 2022, according to an analysis by Pluribus.
Red Alert: A new poll shows Measure 114 is at risk of not passing.
From the Oregonian: “Oregon Democrats said they accepted $500,000 from a Las Vegas cryptocurrency startup. Now they say the real donor was someone else”
CNN did a deep-dive on the use of psilocybin in Oregon and their future.
Thank you for reading.
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About the Authors
Ben Bowman is the chair of the Tigard-Tualatin School Board and the Democratic nominee for Oregon House District 25 (Tigard and Beaverton). In his day job, he works as an administrator for a public school district. Previously, he worked as a legislative aide for former Reps. Margaret Doherty and Val Hoyle. He also co-hosts The Oregon Bridge podcast. In the newsletter and podcast, he speaks only for himself.
Alex Titus is a small business owner and consultant to businesses, nonprofits, and associations. Previously, he served as an Advisor in the Trump Administration and as a Policy Advisor to President Trump’s Super PAC. His writing has appeared in National Review, Fox News, The Hill, RealClearPolitics, and other publications.