The Liftoff: Big developments in Governor's race; national Republicans not targeting Oregon (yet)
PLUS: National attention for Newberg, the Proud Boys vs. Antifa aftermath, accountability reporting you should read, what to make of the $1.9 billion kicker, and rough pandemic news.
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1. Big moves expected this month in Gov’s race
This week, we had Dr. Bud Pierce on The Oregon Bridge podcast, and it was a fascinating conversation—it veers from personal (discussing the passing of his wife, Selma) to political (his reason for calling the Governor’s mask mandate a “failure” and how he would address Portland’s challenges). Check it out on Apple and Spotify. According to my dad, this is our best episode yet (and he’s a Democrat!).
It’s happening: We expect multiple announcements this month about potential gubernatorial bids. One unconfirmed rumor says Speaker Tina Kotek will announce this week. Our advice: Forget about the polling and war chest comparisons—Kotek starts in first place because of her likely ability to marshal the support and resources of Oregon’s broad progressive infrastructure. But, as we’ve mentioned before, the Speaker has made some enemies after over a decade leading the State House (many consider her the most powerful politician in Oregon). It’s unlikely she’ll have as clean of a sweep as then-Senator Shemia Fagan had in her successful Secretary of State bid.
New York Times columnist Nick Kristof released a 15-page memo outlining his eligibility (and Oregon thoroughbred credentials), co-authored by Governor Kate Brown’s former lawyer Misha Isaak. To quote Nigel Jacquiss’ article: “[It’s] the clearest evidence yet that Kristof, a Democrat, intends to seek the governor’s mansion.” Kristof got some flak on Twitter for the conclusion of the memo boasting his Oregon bonafides, including that he that he has “hiked the entire length of Oregon along the Pacific Crest Trail, sent his children to OMSI camps, backpacked around Mount Hood, [and] eaten at Mo’s in Lincoln City.” But overall, especially given Oregon’s relatively lax history of interpreting residency eligibility, it’s a compelling memo.
Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle and her agency were essentially completely exonerated by an independent investigation released by the Department of Justice (and conducted by a private firm). The most comprehensive reporting on the investigation’s findings comes from The Oregonian. While this investigation will not prevent the ongoing lawsuits, this is clearly good news for Hoyle. But—Hoyle told KLCC that she is running for reelection, not Governor.
Oregon’s current governor, Kate Brown, had to defend herself against a bizarre attack from Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who was apparently confused that a bisexual person can date/marry someone of the opposite gender? Very weird.
2. Redistricting Round-Up: Horvick says gerrymandering possible; NRCC not targeting Oregon (yet)
John Horvick, Director of Political Research at DHM Research (and one of Oregon’s top pollsters), thinks that Oregon’s new 6th congressional district will lean Republican—unless the Dems stack the deck and gerrymander it.
Good news for the incumbents: Axios reports that the National Republican Congressional Committee, the campaign arm of congressional Rs, is targeting the 15 “hottest districts” across the country with TV ads. Neither OR-4 (Rep. Peter DeFazio) nor OR-5 (Rep. Kurt Schrader) are on the list. That’s bad news for Alek Skarlatos and Lori Chavez-DeRemer—but the NRCC may be waiting for redistricting in Oregon to shake out before investing.
The state legislature will be subject to new maps in 2022, too. Redistricting could impact the gender composition of the legislature; as of today, the State House is over half women (33/60). This is driven primarily by the Democratic caucus (2/3 of the women of the House are Democrats), but the House GOP is trending toward gender equity; the additions of Rep. Anna Scharf and Rep. Christine Goodwin make the GOP caucus 11/23 women.
3. Newberg School Board in the national spotlight
The Newberg School Board has been in the spotlight for the last month following a controversial decision around prohibiting the display of Black Lives Matter and LGBTQ+ pride flags. The saga continued this week when the board broke public meeting law to hire outside counsel, according to reporter Ryan Clarke of The Newberg Graphic. That outside counsel, Tyler Smith, boasts on his website that he is a past Vice Chairman of the Oregon Republican Party.
Virtually every statewide media outlet in Oregon (as well as some national outlets like NPR and NBC News) has covered the controversy in Newberg. The board’s actions have been criticized by the Oregon House Democrats, the legislative BIPOC Caucus, the ACLU, Congresswoman Suzanne Bonamici, the Newberg teacher’s union, and the Newberg City Council—and yet they seem to be moving full speed ahead.
Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was in Yamhill County last week and met with advocates on the issue.
4. Proud Boys vs. Antifa: Wheeler says police response worked; critics call it a disaster
Shot: “Gunfire erupts after Proud Boys and anti-fascists openly brawl in Portland without police intervention” via OPB
Chaser: “Portland mayor claims victory as Parkrose residents reel from unchecked political violence” via OPB
A quote from Parkrose Superintendent Michael Lopes Serrao from the second article:
“This is where we live. This is where we gather. Our kids are watching this happen right in their backyard. And I do think that it sends a message to them that we don’t care as much if this happens in this part of the city.”
Meanwhile, the journalists who were covering the event were literally under attack, and it caught the attention of some national voices. Author and Rolling Stone contributing editor Matt Taibbi is furious that journalist Maranie Staab was assaulted by Antifa—and wrote a scorching piece on his Substack about it.
Another piece worth reading, from a different perspective: Steve Duin defending the police response and criticizing the untenable political status quo on public safety.
5. Accountability reporting: WW’s “Hydro Hogs” and The O’s City of Portland salaries
Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler, with a salary of $143,655, is making more than the Oregon Governor, Secretary of State, State Treasurer, Attorney General, and Labor Commissioner. The Oregonian released their database of City of Portland salaries, with police officers and firefighters making up the vast majority of top earners (over $200,000).
Meanwhile, Willamette Week is out with “Hydro Hogs”, their report on who is using the most water (and spending the most on water bills) in Portland. There are some familiar names on the list for #orpol followers, including State Senator Kate Lieber (water bill of $5,339) and Columbia Sportswear CEO Tim Boyle (water bill of $5,653).
6. A “faster, more complete, and more inclusive” economic recovery—and a controversial kicker
The latest revenue forecast is out, and, according to The Oregon Office of Economic Development, it’s looking bright—thanks to strong household incomes boosted by federal aid. Here’s a key excerpt from Josh Lehner: “The current recovery will be faster, more complete, and more inclusive than recent experiences coming out of the tech and housing bubbles. As some of the pandemic-specific challenges fade, the underlying economy is on solid footing due to the strength of corporate and household balance sheets.”
Much of the #orpol world spent the last week either celebrating or deriding the personal income tax kicker, which is projected to be a staggering $1.9 billion. If you’re new to the kicker or want a refresher, here’s a great fact sheet from the Department of Revenue.
For one view, read Republican strategist Reagan Knopp’s piece on The Oregon Way defending the kicker, which he says helps limit government spending and create better budgeting practices.
Alternatively, read the left-leaning Oregon Center for Public Policy’s May release calling for kicker funds to be spent on the needs of low-income Oregonians—or reissued in equal amounts to all Oregonians (currently the kicker is distributed proportionally based on how much each person paid in taxes).
The kicker caught the attention of Vox co-founder (and writer of one of the most popular Substacks) Matt Yglesias. After John Horvick tweeted about the kicker’s infamous popularity with voters, Yglesias wrote: “Wouldn’t it be politically feasible to restructure it in a flatter way?” (essentially, the second proposal from OCCP). Horvick wrote back: “Perhaps. In practice, though, the reform I've had more clients test is voter support for dedicating (portions of) the kicker to popular programs and rainy-day funds.” That’s what Ballot Measure 85 did in 2012 with the corporate kicker, reallocating it to public education.
Our take: In a populist-dominated political space, a kicker reform proposal that reallocates the funds more equally might just be viable—and even bipartisan.
7. “Oregon no longer a pandemic success story”
A powerful and depressing OPB newsletter headline summarizes how many of us are feeling after a rough month: “Oregon no longer a pandemic success story.” Here’s the full article.
Southern Oregon, in particular, continues to suffer. An important tweet from April Ehlirch of Jefferson Public Radio: “Not sure how aware the rest of Oregon is about this but the southern region has been immersed in smoke for more than a month on top of experiencing a huge covid surge. You cant go anywhere without being exposed to smoke or possibly a deadly virus.”
At least two counties (Tillamook and Josephine) have requested refrigeration trucks to store bodies because of increased deaths from the COVID surge and limited funeral home capacity.
Meanwhile, at least three school districts have delayed the start of school because of COVID outbreaks. The number could grow: Beaverton City Councilor Nadia Hassan has called for the Beaverton School District to “consider delaying” the return to in-person learning.
8. Is telemedicine the future?
According to the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center (OVBC), telemedicine has a sky-high approval rating in Oregon.
You’ve probably noticed that OVBC provides an infographic each week for this newsletter (thank you, OVBC!). They provide “accurate, inclusive opinion research to help Oregonians working to build stronger communities.” Statewide public opinion research has historically been rare and/or reserved for private, wealthy (or well-funded) interests. OVBC is changing that (which we think is pretty cool).
One correction from last week: In mentioning former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s ties to Lake Oswego, we linked to the wrong article. We should have linked to the original article (from way back in 2015!) in The Lake Oswego Review, written by Jillian Daley. We regret the error.
Thank you for reading.
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