The Liftoff: Carrick Flynn Has Something To Say
PLUS: Behind the scenes of the GOP ad wars; former legislators dish on gubernatorial candidates; congressional endorsements; big PAC spending in Portland council elections; and more!
Welcome back to The Liftoff!
We have been trying to trim down this newsletter, but after news-packed weeks like the last one, it’s a challenge. Here are the top stories we think you should know about.
1. Who is Carrick Flynn, the candidate with unprecedented SuperPAC support?
Carrick Flynn, a Democratic candidate to represent Oregon’s new 6th Congressional District, was this week’s guest on The Oregon Bridge podcast. Flynn has attracted more headlines in the last month than any congressional candidate in Oregon.
He has also attracted nearly $7 million in SuperPAC funding (so far) to support him (mostly from “Protect Our Future PAC”)—an unprecedented sum for primary.
Moreover, the SuperPAC closely aligned with Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Majority PAC, is supporting him in a highly competitive primary, which is nearly unheard of.
The move has drawn the scorn of his primary opponents and Senator Jeff Merkley.
To put this in perspective, we reached out to Doug Weber from OpenSecrets, the top national research group focused on money in politics. Here’s what he said: “Protect Our Future PAC looks like the biggest spender by a committee in a single House primary [in the country]...It's not close...Protect Our Future PAC has spent nearly twice as much as the runner up.”
Flynn is now coming under scrutiny for voting in just 2 of the last 30 elections according to Willamette Week’s analysis.
Check out our in-depth interview with Carrick Flynn on Apple, Spotify, Audible, or YouTube.
2. Behind the scenes of the Republican ad wars
The GOP race for governor is wide open; every single GOP candidate earns less than 7% support in the latest poll. This section was guest written by GOP consultant Reagan Knopp, who was prominently featured last week in an OPB article called “Oregon GOP gubernatorial candidates hope 2022 puts an end to 40-year losing streak”. Below are some highlights, but click here to read his full analysis of six top GOP gubernatorial campaign advertising.
Exclusive to readers of The Liftoff this morning, Dr. Bud Pierce has debuted his new TV ad which takes aim at his rivals using the monikers “negative insiders” and “career politicians”. Information on the size of the buy isn’t yet available, but Dr. Pierce recently wrote his campaign a personal check for $500,000. I’d imagine a sizable chunk of that will be for TV.
Christine Drazan debuted a public safety focused spot last Monday. Drazan is the biggest spender by far with a reported $450,000 in TV ads and approaching $100,000 in digital. I’ve seen her ads in my Instagram feed a lot over the past two or three weeks.
Bob Tiernan’s ad “Bull” debuted on March 31st. I was staring at my phone when I heard the *bleep* in his ad and it did get me to look up—so perhaps this new influx of GOP primary ad “fake swearing” has it’s purpose. Tiernan has bought $250,000 in TV and $140,000 in digital and social media. He’s the second largest spender among all candidates (at least until we find out how much Pierce plans to spend).
Click here to read more on the ad campaigns of Bridget Barton, Mayor Stan Pulliam, and Kerry McQuisten.
3. Gubernatorial profile pieces worth reading
Tina Kotek is out with a new TV ad called “Look”. Last week, Kotek was endorsed by former congresswoman Gabby Giffords and her national organization that focuses on gun safety policies. A long profile of Tina Kotek in OPB includes quotes from both allies and opponents, including these folks:
OLCV Executive Director Doug Moore: “Tina basically passes bills and then gets into really confrontational conversations with [Senate President] Peter Courtney to make sure what the House wants gets delivered.”
Business lobbyist Shaun Jillions: “If Tina Kotek could spend the entire state budget on the homeless problem, she would.”
Former Rep. Jeff Barker: “Toward the end it was, ‘My way or the highway.’ Her truthfulness in the end was pretty lacking.”
Speaker Dan Rayfield: “Tina has been able to use her position to help drive change, when sometimes a path to that change wasn’t always clear.”
Treasurer Tobias Read is out with a new TV ad called “Real Change”. Read was featured in two profiles, a WW profile and an OPB profile, with these quotes:
WW: Former Rep. Brent Barton: “There is no harder-working person in Salem than Tobias Read. He takes governance seriously.”
WW: Former Sen. Mark Hass: “If you play it safe in politics, you won’t make any friends, you won’t make any enemies, and you won’t get anything done. That’s Tobias.”
OPB: Former Rep. Jennifer Williamson: “Tobias is a great guy. But he’s not the man of the moment.”
OPB: Congressman Cliff Bentz: “[Read is a] very sharp and thoughtful person. And he works at it. He doesn’t expect everybody else to do his thinking for him.”
Betsy Johnson earned some national coverage in The Daily Beast: “Meet the Candidate Who Could Crush Dem Dreams in Oregon”. It was also revealed that the Democratic Governors Association-backed PAC “Oregonians for Ethics” will be attacking Johnson for the conservative aspects of her record. A Pamplin article explored Johnson’s significant financial support from timber baron and America’s largest landowner Archie Emmer.
And a cynical profile of a former candidate: “Nicholas Kristof’s Botched Rescue Mission” by Olivia Nuzzi in New York Magazine.
4. Congressional and legislative endorsements, TV ads, and PAC spending
Congressional Campaign News
The Oregonian has made it’s congressional endorsements:
CD4: Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle (D)
CD5: Congressman Kurt Schrader (D) and Jimmy Crumpacker (R)
CD6: Rep. Andrea Salinas (D) and Rep. Ron Noble (R)
CD4: Andrew Kalloch is out with an ad attacking his Democratic opponent, Val Hoyle, over campaign contributions.
CD4: Doyle Canning, another Democratic candidate, is out with an ad touting her progressive credentials.
CD5: Jimmy Crumpacker is out with two new TV ads: one for the Portland market and one for the Bend market.
CD5: Lori Chavez-DeRemer has a new ad called “Get It Done” that touts her conservative record as Happy Valley mayor.
CD5: Jamie McLeod-Skinner takes it directly to Rep. Kurt Schrader in her first TV ad, called “Shred”.
CD6: Rep. Andrea Salinas has released an ad called “Fields”.
CD6: Matt West is out with an ad called “Tax the Rich”.
Legislative Campaign News
The PAC supporting moderate Democrats has made two key expenditures: roughly $100,000 to support Rep. Brad Witt (running for an open Salem seat) and roughly $50,000 to support Daniel Nguyen (running for the open Lake Oswego seat).
A new PAC, called 9 to 5 PAC, founded by retiring Reps. Rachel Prusak and Anna Williams, has been formed to support working women running for the legislature.
5. Local news: Bend mayor retires; Portland PAC prepares to spend big for Hardesty challenger; John Legend endorses DA candidate
Bend Mayor Sally Russell will not seek re-election. Councilor Melanie Kebler will run against former councilor Chris Piper in the race to be the next mayor.
A local version of a SuperPAC is planning to spend $700,000 to support Vadim Mozyrsky, who is challenging Portland City Commissioner Jo Ann Hardesty.
As Portland’s tree canopy shrinks, the city is ending it’s contract with Friends of Trees. It will launch it’s own, apparently smaller-scale program through its Urban Forestry Division.
Celebrity musician John Legend endorsed Brian Decker, who is running against Kevin Barton in the Washington County DA race.
6. The death of honest discourse?
Thanks to our friends at the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center for this week’s graphic. Across age demographics, Oregonians agree that we live in a hard environment to share one’s opinion.
7. News round-up: Planned Parenthood rents a space near Idaho border; first Oregon Starbucks unionizes
Sign of the Times: Planned Parenthood is leasing clinic space in Ontario, OR
The O has a deep-dive into the questionable roll-out of Measure 110: “So far not a single new treatment bed has been funded since Measure 110′s passage to decriminalize the possession of small amounts of heroin and other street drugs”
According to a poll from the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center, Oregonians are split on whether their local school board represents their values.
One of Oregon’s top judges was charged with possessing child pornography.
A Starbucks in Eugene became the first in Oregon to unionize and more stores are expected to follow.
Intel is showing Oregon a little bit of love with a new $3 billion investment in the Hillsboro area.
Here are five ways to lower the cost of housing, courtesy of WW.
Thank you for reading.
Tips? Feedback? Ideas? Corrections? We want to hear from you! Email benjaminwbowman@gmail.com.
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About the Authors
Ben Bowman is the chair of the Tigard-Tualatin School Board and a Democratic candidate for Oregon House District 25 (Tigard and Beaverton). In his day job, he works for the Oregon Department of Education. Previously, he worked as a legislative aide for former Reps. Margaret Doherty and Val Hoyle. He also co-hosts The Oregon Bridge podcast. In the newsletter and podcast, he speaks only for himself.
Alex Titus is a small business owner and consultant to businesses, nonprofits, and associations. Previously, he served as an Advisor in the Trump Administration and as a Policy Advisor to President Trump’s Super PAC. His writing has appeared in National Review, Fox News, The Hill, RealClearPolitics, and other publications. He also co-hosts The Oregon Bridge podcast.
Another great edition. Just packed with information. Thanks!