The Liftoff: Debates, TV ads, and new PACs
PLUS: Campaign finance reform is dead; the impacts of historic legislative turnover; People for Portland accused of breaking the rules; shot clocks, tree canopies, and scorpions!
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1. What did we learn from the AFL-CIO Democratic debate?
On Friday, at the Oregon AFL-CIO convention, Rep. Paul Holvey, Rep. Andrea Salinas, and Rep. Dacia Grayber were all honored with awards, and Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle addressed the convention. Then, the two major Democratic candidates for governor debated. Some takeaways:
Tina Kotek had already earned the support of many of the labor unions in the audience (some have remained neutral so far)—but support was not unanimous among individuals in the audience.
Very few clear policy differences surfaced and, in general, the debate was relatively amicable. With one major exception…
PERS narrative warfare begins: In response to a question from the audience, Tina Kotek took a shot at Betsy Johnson, blaming her for refusing to support a tax increase to fund schools unless PERS cuts were also passed—then Treasurer Tobias Read took a shot at Kotek, saying: “I am not one that wants to make political deals on the back of public employees.”
On the GOP side, a KATU-sponsored debate is scheduled for April 7. Only candidates who have raised $750,000 and above will be invited. According to Reagan Knopp, that means five candidates will be on stage: Bridget Barton, Christine Drazan, Bud Pierce, Bob Tiernan, and Mayor Stan Pulliam. Excluded will be Jessica Gomez, Mayor Kerry McQuisten, Marc Thielman, and others (unless they raise a lot more money by March 31). To get ready for the debate, read this WW deep analysis on the factors influencing Republican optimism about the gubernatorial race.
2. Former legislators form a PAC, armed with a $500,000 loan, to promote moderate Democrats
Former State Rep. Brian Clem gave a $500,000 loan to a new PAC (“Oregonians Are Ready PAC”) that he started with six former legislators to support moderate Democrats in legislative races. Partnering with Clem (Salem) are Betty Komp (Woodburn), Arnie Roblan (Coos Bay), Caddy McKeown (Southern Oregon Coast), Deborah Boone (Northern Oregon Coast), and Jeff Barker (Aloha).
The PAC is expected to support at least three Democrats in primaries:
Rep. Ken Helm, who is facing a primary from Tammy Carpenter
Rep. Brad Witt, as he seeks election to a brand new seat in Salem and faces two Democratic Salem City Councilors in the primary, Jackie Leung and Tom Andersen
Lake Oswego City Councilor Daniel Nguyen, who will face Lake Oswego School Board Member Neelam Gupta in the primary
3. Campaign finance reform ballot measures are likely dead for 2022
The Supreme Court did not intervene to overturn Secretary of State Shemia Fagan’s decision to reject proposals for failing to adhere to an administrative constitutional requirement that petitioners submit the full text of the section of law they intend to change.
Chief petitioner Jason Kafoury told OPB: “The most likely outcome here is that we’re going to have to regroup and look at filing something for 2024.”
Fagan reiterated her support for reform and welcomed the petitioners to challenge the constitution’s “full text” rule in court.
Why does this matter? It means Oregon may have another election cycle without any kind of campaign contribution limits in 2024.
Fagan was also in the news this week for a new Secretary of State audit that puts Oregon’s mortgage interest deduction under a microscope. Fagan came out swinging, saying about the deduction: “…billions of dollars just walk out the backdoor with no questions asked. I can’t think of a worse example of waste and systemic inequality than that.”
4. New political ads hit the airwaves
GOP gubernatorial candidate Bridget Barton is out with a TV ad called “No Horse Sh!% Outsider”.
Rep. Kurt Schrader is on the airwaves in the 5th Congressional District with a couple of ads, including this one highlighting his background as a veterinarian.
A Super PAC has spent over $1 million on TV and digital ads supporting Carrick Flynn in the 6th Congressional District using this b-roll footage.
Cody Reynolds, also running in the 6th, is out with an ad called “The Road to Service”.
Have you seen a campaign commercial worth sharing? Send us a link and we’ll feature it in the newsletter.
5. Historic turnover in the legislature has major implications for Oregon’s future
43% of state representative are not running for reelection this year, according to an analysis by Willamette Week. This dramatic turnover, which could expand further depending on the outcomes of primary and general elections, will have implications for both the upcoming campaign season and next year’s legislative session, including:
New or relatively new presiding officers and caucus leaders in both chambers
Tons of new committee chairs (at least six new chairs in the house, one in the senate, and seven new co-chairs of joint committees)
A significant decline in institutional memory among legislators
A high degree of uncertainty and unpredictability for both campaigns and policy agendas
Remember: Most candidates will be focusing their time and attention on running for office between now and the general election in early November. That leaves about three months (over the holidays) to prepare for legislative service (the session usually begins in early February).
Some retiring legislators cited the low pay as a reason for not running for re-election. Read Rep. Khanh Pham’s op-ed in The Way calling for a legislative pay increase.
6. Realignment Podcast Host Marshall Kosloff joins The Bridge to talk Ukraine and how young people should approach politics in a time of disfunction
Marshall Kosloff is co-host of The Realignment podcast (almost 1.5 million channel views on YouTube alone) which focuses on shifting thinking in American politics, technology, economics, and national security. Marshall grew up in Lake Oswego and now lives in New York City.
Marshall, Ben, and Alex all attended the University of Oregon and have been friends since college. In this cross-over episode, Ben and Marshall dissect what’s going on in Ukraine and why it matters, the future of America’s role in the world, and how young people should approach politics in a time of cynicism and disfunction.
7. Something most Oregonians agree on: American democracy is more at risk
Thanks to our friends at the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center for this infographic that shows how Oregonians feel about the health of our democracy.
8. Miscellaneous state and local government news
State Government News
Tom Eckert, who chaired the advisory council leading the regulation of psychedelic mushrooms in Oregon, has resigned after being accused of standing to make money based on the board’s policy recommendations.
OPB reporter Emily Cook has an interesting deep-dive piece on controversial water management decisions by state officials and companies in Malheur County.
Oregon’s new Office of Immigrant and Refugee Advancement will be moved out of the Governor’s office and into the Department of Human Services—and it’s finally staffing up.
Here are the new short-session laws described as “pro-worker” by the Northwest Labor Press.
Amid record gas prices, Gov. Kate Brown is not considering a suspension of Oregon gas taxes—at least not yet. High gas prices aren’t just hurting consumers; state agencies are facing serious challenges, too. For example, the Department of Transportation estimates it could pay as much as $3.5 million more for gas in the next year.
Local Government News
Joe Morelock, who was fired by the Newberg School Board, has found a new job: Superintendent of the Woodburn School District.
People for Portland was recently accused of violating Oregon election law. This is another piece from Shane Dixon Kavanaugh that’s helpful for understanding the dividing lines of Portland metro politics.
In surprising news, Portland’s tree canopy is shrinking, and the city doesn’t know why.
The election for the next sheriff of Multnomah County will be unusually competitive. Nearly all the races for the Metro Council will be competitive, too.
As interim director of the Joint Office of Homeless Services, Shannon Singleton will be walking into the middle of an ongoing negotiation between Portland and Multnomah County. She will earn a $165,000 salary in the role.
9. News Round-Up: Shot clocks, scorpions, and wheat farmers
The war in Ukraine is already having a devastating impact on Oregon wheat farmers. Food prices in Oregon and across the country are skyrocketing.
Here’s why some high school athletic directors are opposed to using a shot clock in high school basketball.
Portland ranked 11th out of 15th from a recent poll of where young people want to move after college.
The U.S. Senate recently passed a bill to make daylight savings permanent. This piece from The O explores the potential impact in Oregon.
Oregon surpassed the 700,000 case mark since the beginning of the global COVID-19 pandemic.
Weird story of the week: Oregon man pleads guilty to the illegal import-export of scorpions from Germany.
An Oregon man won nearly $9 million from the state lottery after he found a forgotten ticket.
Thank you for reading.
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