The Liftoff: Democrats have a major polling problem
PLUS: Which candidate was attacked for having "soft hands"?; Oswego Lake belongs to all of us; selfies with Biden in Portland; two new legislative groups tackle big challenges.
Welcome back to The Liftoff!
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1. Governor’s Race: Betsy Johnson hits the airwaves; Dems square off in debate
Betsy Johnson (who does not have to win a primary) is out with her first TV ad, “Flew”, touting her background as a barrier-breaking helicopter pilot.
The Oregonian takes a look at the top GOP candidates for governor in this deep dive.
The two top Democrats, Tina Kotek and Treasurer Tobias Read, met last week at the Portland City Club debate. The exchanges were tense at times; here is an excerpt:
Read: “If the former speaker wants to take all the credit for working on housing, I think it’s reasonable to ask how it’s going.”
Kotek: “You haven’t been in the arena working on this issue, Tobias. You just simply haven’t.”
To which Read responded: “How’s it going?”
See the full context of the exchange at about 25:30 on the YouTube video.
Tina Kotek, in an endorsement interview with WW, previews a potential shake-up in state agency leadership if she wins election—starting with Pat Allen at the Oregon Health Authority.
Treasurer Tobias Read has earned the endorsement of the Yamhill County News-Register.
WW asked gubernatorial candidates if they believe systemic racism exists in Oregon. Dems said yes, Rs said no, and Betsy Johnson would not give a “yes” or “no”.
2. Congressional News: Which candidate was attacked for having “soft hands”?
Answer: Congressman Kurt Schrader—he was accused by primary opponent Jamie McLeod Skinner. See video above from the Willamette Week endorsement interview.
Some good news for Schrader: President Joe Biden has endorsed the congressman for reelection, saying: “We don’t always agree, but when it has mattered most, Kurt has been there for me.”
Rep. Andrea Salinas has released her first TV, which focuses on abortion access.
The Oregonian has compiled fundraising numbers (and SuperPAC spending) for each congressional candidate and there are lots of interesting tidbits. Here are three highlights:
First, it underscores the astounding gap in independent spending to support Carrick Flynn and every other candidate. Nearly $8.5 million has been spent to support Flynn—the combined independent spending for all other candidates doesn’t even break $1 million.
In CD5, Congressman Kurt Schrader’s fundraising is outpacing his primary rival and both major Republicans (and all other congressional incumbents). He’s raised $2.1 million to Jamie McLeod Skinner’s ~$500,000. Jimmy Crumpacker and Lori Chavez DeRemer both raised about $500,000.
In CD4, Alek Skarlatos raised nearly triple Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle’s total ($1.7 million to $600,000)—but he is burning through cash rapidly. He has less than $200,000 more on hand than she does. Hoyle more than doubled the fundraising totals of her four primary competitors.
3. State News: Very bad polling for Democrats, plus big-ticket legislative items
OPB has released a DHM poll of Oregon voters (with a 4% margin of error) with some extremely bad news for Democrats. First, the obvious caveats about any poll: it represents a snapshot in time, it is not a prediction, it’s difficult to get a representative sample of Oregon, etc. Here are some highlights:
73% believe Oregon is on the wrong track; 65% rate economic conditions as poor or very poor.
27% of voters have a positive view of Kate Brown, compared to 35% for Joe Biden and 45% for Donald Trump.
In a generic race for governor with two candidates: 29% support for the Democrat, 47% for the Republican.
In a generic race for governor with three candidates: 16% support for the Democrat, 26% for the Republican, and 21% for the independent.
46% want the next governor to be conservative; 26% want a moderate; 22% want a liberal
Last week, legislative leaders unveiled two panels designed to address intractable challenges:
A new joint legislative committee, co-chaired by Sen. Sara Gelser and Rep. John Lively, will conduct a “comprehensive review of gambling policies in Oregon”.
A “Three Branch Workgroup”, co-chaired by Sen. Floyd Prozanski and Rep. Paul Evans, will tackle Oregon’s public defense crisis.
The legislature’s former Acting Equity Officer Nate Monson is suing legislative leaders, alleging retaliation and emotional distress. Previously, legislative leaders have claimed that Monson lied on his resume. Before that, Monson accused the legislature (and his predecessor) of mismanagement.
Finally, The O has the data on ballot measure fundraising. Five ballot measures report raising over $50,000 or more. The top fundraising measure? Stopping legislative walkouts.
4. Metro President Lynn Peterson joins The Bridge and talks homelessness, transportation, and People For Portland
Metro President Lynn Peterson has worked at just about every level of government, both as an elected and appointed leader. She's served as a Lake Oswego City Councilor, Clackamas County Commission Chair, senior transportation policy advisor to Governor John Kitzhaber, and head of the Washington State Transportation Department (we ask her about the wild end of her tenure in WA, forced by the state senate). Now she serves as Council President of Metro, the one-of-a-kind regional government for the Portland area (which she explains in the episode).
In this episode, Peterson takes complicated policy issues (like housing, the urban growth boundary, homelessness, and transportation) and explains them in simple terms. She also underscores the scope of the challenges we face (spoiler: we are *way* short of the number of housing units we need in the region, and it might be worse than you think). We also talk about "People for Portland" and its impact on the political landscape in Portland, plus her advice for Mayor Ted Wheeler on how to immediately solve for Portland's dysfunctional form of government.
You can listen on YouTube, Spotify, Apple, or Audible.
5. Portland City News: Hardesty v. Mozyrsky heats up
Read this Willamette Week profile of Vadim Mozyrsky on why he “is the ideal foil to Commissioner Jo Ann Hardesty.” Meanwhile, Hardesty met with Joe Biden during his visit, who (allegedly/jokingly) said: “You should be at the county, it’s a lot easier than the city!” The candidates sparred at the Laurelhurst Neighborhood Association’s candidate debate, recapped by WW.
With three Expo Center parcels finally picked out (pending approval), Commissioner Dan Ryan promises Safe Rest Villages by Labor Day.
Multnomah County Sheriff Mike Reese penned an open letter to Portland residents warning that violent crime is only likely to worsen as the summer approaches. Portland is continuing to experience a surge in homicides and gun violence.
Masks are officially gone at PDX and other airports after a ruling from a Trump-appointed judge.
6. Biden stops in Portland
Governor Kate Brown and all six Democratic members of Oregon’s congressional delegation greeted President Joe Biden on the tarmac for his brief visit to Portland. Social media lit up with (mostly) metro-area elected leaders posting pictures of/with Biden, including: Mayor Ted Wheeler, Commissioner Jo Ann Hardesty, Metro Councilor Juan Gonzalez, and Mayor Lacey Beaty. Rep. Rachel Prusak got a hug from Biden.
7. GOP Ad Wars (an update!)
This section was guest authored by GOP consultant Reagan Knopp. Knopp was also a guest host of The Oregon Bridge podcast this week.
Bridget Barton is preparing to go on TV for the first time since March Madness. Her ad will debut this week, I’m told.
Christine Drazan is still outpacing all other candidates with $645,000 on TV to date. She went up with a new ad on Friday: “Upside Down”. She’s also been on TV with the longest sustained ad buy of any candidate.
Bob Tiernan has a new ad called “Deserve” and has reached $415,000 in TV ad spend for the primary.
Dr. Bud Pierce has backed his new ad (debuted exclusively in last week’s Liftoff) with a $200,000 buy.
Stan Pulliam is up to $100,0000 in TV. About half of that is for his current TV ad run.
Kerry McQuisten has a new ad taking aim at “establishment” politicians who try to “buy our elections.” “Kerry McQuisten for Oregon: Republicans need a very different kind of nominee if we want to win!” She’s added $5,000 for a total of $55,000.
8. News Round-Up: Congratulations! You are now a co-owner of Oswego Lake.
Circuit Court Judge Ann Lininger, who used to represent Lake Oswego in the state legislature, has ruled that Oswego Lake is a public resource held by the state—not a private one.
Toya Fick, the long-time Executive Director of Stand for Children Oregon, will be the next CEO of Meyer Memorial Trust, one of the largest foundations in Oregon.
Oregon has $5.3 billion invested in fossil fuels according to a recent report from a number of environmental groups.
A state audit examining delays in disbursing unemployment benefits during the pandemic has been delayed for a second time.
Two high schools, Molalla and Clatskanie, have been placed on probation by OSAA for racist incidents at sporting events.
From The O: “Willamette Valley could lose half its grape crop after frost hits Oregon vineyards”
John Day is at the potential forefront of the 3D house printing revolution. OPB has the story.
An Oregon Health Authority employee allegedly embezzled nearly $1.5 million—but that state recovered just about all of it.
The Oregonian takes a look at the competitive primary to replace Rep. Barbara Smith Warner in NE Portland: optometrist Thuy Tran vs. environmental consultant Catherine Thomasson.
There are far fewer immigrants (~100,000) living in Oregon than five years ago, a major contributor to the state’s severe worker shortage.
Every public university in Oregon will raise tuition next year between 2% and 7%.
Clarification: Last week, we linked to a story where we described a “new” $3 billion Intel expansion in Oregon. That’s not quite right; the $3 billion expansion is now complete—though the funds have been spent over the last several years. Thanks to Dawn Phillips for the correction!
Thank you for reading.
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About the Authors
Ben Bowman is the chair of the Tigard-Tualatin School Board and a Democratic candidate for Oregon House District 25 (Tigard and Beaverton). In his day job, he works for the Oregon Department of Education. Previously, he worked as a legislative aide for former Reps. Margaret Doherty and Val Hoyle. He also co-hosts The Oregon Bridge podcast. In the newsletter and podcast, he speaks only for himself.
Alex Titus is a small business owner and consultant to businesses, nonprofits, and associations. Previously, he served as an Advisor in the Trump Administration and as a Policy Advisor to President Trump’s Super PAC. His writing has appeared in National Review, Fox News, The Hill, RealClearPolitics, and other publications. He also co-hosts The Oregon Bridge podcast.