The Liftoff: Is Oregon a top-tier swing state?
PLUS: "Spice Boiz & Gals" of Oregon politics; RIP to a well-known political insider; under-the-radar races to watch; "Red Tsunami" warning sign in Oregon; and more!
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1. High-profile surrogates visit one of the top-tier swing states of the cycle: Oregon
As we enter the final sprint of the 2022 election, the race for Governor is white hot.
First, the state of the race: Data for Progress just released a new poll showing a razor-thin lead for Christine Drazan over Tina Kotek, 43% to 42%. Betsy Johnson is in a distant third with 12%. The margin of error is +/- 3 points.
How do we know Oregon is a swing state this cycle? First, because the governor’s race has shattered previous fundraising records, with nearly $60 million raised so far(!!!). Second, because the top national surrogates from both parties are on the trail.
President Joe Biden visited. Last week, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) stumped for Kotek and Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) campaigned for Drazan. Former president Barack Obama just cut an ad for Kotek. Previously, Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) campaigned for Drazan. Next week, Sen. Bernie Sanders will visit.
Here are some quick hits from the last week:
In a Willamette Week interview, all three candidates agreed on firing the leadership of the Oregon Health Authority
The Capital Chronicle outlined where the three candidates stand on education and housing
Phil Knight has given millions to Drazan and Johnson—but Nike just gave $75,000 to Kotek
After a dramatic hearing that included testimony from former representatives Diego Hernandez, Brian Clem, and Matt Wand, the House Conduct Committee has deferred a vote on the complaint against Kotek
2. Axios sees sign of national “Red Tsunami” in Oregon
Here’s an excerpt from an Axios report about a potential “Red Tsunami”:
“Last week, the Democrats' House Majority PAC moved funds from an Oregon district Biden carried by nine points to salvage a suburban Portland district Biden won by 13 points. One national Democratic official told Axios they're ‘very pessimistic’ about the prospects of Oregon Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who ousted moderate Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) in the primary.”
The Oregonian has a full analysis of congressional fundraising numbers from the latest financial disclosure reports (importantly, these numbers do not include independent expenditures). The high points:
Alek Skarlatos has raised $3.6 million vs. $2.0 million for Val Hoyle
Jamie McLeod Skinner has raised $2.7 million vs. $1.8 million for Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Andrea Salinas has raised $2.4 million vs. $2.1 million for Mike Erickson
Alek Skarlatos is running an ad that includes an image of him with former President Barack Obama. Obama’s Communication Director said: “Alek Skarlatos’ ads are purposely misleading.”
Lori Chavez-DeRemer opposed naming a high school in her city after the first Black woman to serve on the Oregon Supreme Court, Adrienne Nelson (she preferred to name it Happy Valley High School). The controversy is back in the news.
3. Spice Boiz & Gals — and Willamette Week’s endorsements
Willamette Week has released it’s endorsements for the 2022 cycle, including extensive video interviews in dozens of races.
They also released a video, called Spice Boiz & Gals, from their event Candidates Gone Wild (warning: explicit content). In the video, Sam Adams is host of a “Hot Ones” imitation show where guests eat increasingly spicy chicken wings. The clip includes moments like:
Rep. Rob Nosse chugging PBR
Metro Councilor Ashton Simpson eating celery (with what he called “weak sauce”)
Storm Large flirting(?) with Sam Adams
Steve Novick declaring his love for Portland’s aerial tram
And more…
4. Under-the-radar races to watch
In 2022, with tens of millions of dollars being spent on top-of-the-ticket races, it’s easy for down-ballot races to be overshadowed. Here are some highlights from other state and local races:
From the Oregonian: “2 Clackamas County Commission races could tilt partisan balance of powerful board”
From Pamplin: “[Rene] Gonzalez caught between conflicting campaign finance rules” (Portland City Commission race)
After the Oregonian switched their endorsement for Multnomah County Chair from Sharon Meieran in the primary to Jessica Vega Pederson in the general—Willamette Week just did the exact opposite.
The Oregonian highlighted a fascinating three-person state senate race in Aloha between Rep. Wlnsvey Campos, former Rep. Rich Vial (formerly a Republican now running as a non-affiliated candidate), and Republican nominee Kim Rice.
From BendVotes.com: “Michael Sipe, Donald Trump, and an alleged multi-level marketing scam”, a story about the GOP nominee for House District 53.
5. Rep. Raquel Moore-Green joins The Bridge to discuss running in a swing seat seat and Oregon’s behavioral health crisis
State Rep. Raquel Moore-Green is running against Sen. Deb Patterson for one of the most competitive state legislative seats in Oregon. As a veteran politician, Rep. Moore-Green was appointed to the state senate in Senate District 10 after working on a number of campaigns as a legislative and campaign staffer, including campaigns for former representative and current Commissioner Kevin Cameron, and the late Sen. Jackie Winters.
In this episode we dive extensively into the effects of Measure 110, the housing and homeless crisis, and behavioral health issues, as some of the top issues on the forefront of voter's minds this cycle.
6. Big-ticket items to have on your radar
In a new report, Oregon ranked second-worst in the country in prevalence of mental illness, ahead of only Kansas.
The political pendulum could be swinging back toward the center in Portland, as Mayor Ted Wheeler announced a “big, ambitious and not yet funded” plan to ban camping on sidewalks and create large camping sites for homeless people, according to WW. All five city councilors attended the press conference, and Wheeler indicated support from legislators, Congressman Earl Blumeanuer, and all three gubernatorial candidates.
In a truly wild development, the Grant County Sheriff arrested the leader of a U.S. Forest Service crew who was conducting a prescribed burn that briefly caught 20 acres of private land on fire. From OPB: “The extraordinary arrest potentially reignites longstanding tensions between rural Oregon Sheriffs and the federal government.”
Thousands of job cuts could be coming to Intel after CEO Pat Gelsinger indicated significant budget challenges for the company.
Here’s an excerpt from an interview in Willamette Week with Hope Smiley McDonald, a researcher who studied Measure 110: “We’re really not seeing any change in Portland’s calls for service initiated by the public after Measure 110 was enacted.”
7. In Memoriam: Rest In Peace to Oregon politics veteran Len Bergstein
Len Bergstein, a longtime political staffer and lobbyist in Oregon, has died at the age of 76. He worked for some of the most influential figures in Oregon politics over the last several decades, including Bob Straub and Vera Katz. Eventually, he started his own firm and was a well-known figure in the state capitol for decades. Many Oregonians knew him as a political analyst for KGW.
8. Oregon: Wrong direction or right track?
Thanks to our friends at the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center for this week’s graphic showing how voters feel about the direction of the state over time.
9. News Roundup: Chief Justice retires, former speaker faces fine, and a very long wait for housing
Oregon Supreme Court Justice Martha Walters will retire, meaning by the end of her term, Gov. Kate Brown will likely have chosen every single member of the Oregon Supreme Court.
Former Oregon House Speaker Dave Hunt could be fined $10,000 or more by the Coast Guard for an illegal “charter” using a family boat.
Want affordable Portland housing offered by the city? It’ll only take you five years.
Steve Law for the Portland Tribune authored a series about the KKK’s history in Portland. Click here to view part one.
Thank you for reading.
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About the Authors
Ben Bowman is the chair of the Tigard-Tualatin School Board and the Democratic nominee for Oregon House District 25 (Tigard and Beaverton). In his day job, he works as an administrator for a public school district. Previously, he worked as a legislative aide for former Reps. Margaret Doherty and Val Hoyle. He also co-hosts The Oregon Bridge podcast. In the newsletter and podcast, he speaks only for himself.
Alex Titus is a small business owner and consultant to businesses, nonprofits, and associations. Previously, he served as an Advisor in the Trump Administration and as a Policy Advisor to President Trump’s Super PAC. His writing has appeared in National Review, Fox News, The Hill, RealClearPolitics, and other publications.