The Liftoff: Is the "Red Wave" about to crash into a "Blue Wall"?
PLUS: Chris Christie and Hakeem Jeffries visit; two new SOS complaints against leg. candidates; Oregon's major decision point on guns; a celebrity endorses charter reform; and more!
Welcome back to The Liftoff! And Happy Halloween!
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1. Chris Christie, Hakeem Jeffries, and dirty tricks: quick hits from the campaign trail
Former NJ governor Chris Christie was in town campaigning for Christine Drazan.
Chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus Rep. Pramila Jayapal visited Oregon to campaign for Jamie McLeod Skinner.
House Democratic Caucus Chairman Rep. Hakeem Jeffries will be in Oregon this week campaigning for Andrea Salinas.
Which candidate for governor is raising the most money from outside Oregon? Willamette Week has the answer.
If you’ve seen Tina Kotek’s recent commercials, you probably noticed an interesting target: Governor Kate Brown.
Dirty Tricks?: In CD4, a mysterious SuperPAC is promoting the Green Party candidate—and he is condemning the effort.
From The O: “State Sen. Bill Kennemer declines to take down TV campaign ad despite pleas from murdered woman’s family”
Two new complaints reported by the Capitol Chronicle:
A Republican operative has filed a residency complaint against Hai Pham, Democratic nominee for state representative in Washington County, alleging he lives outside the district.
A Democratic supporter has filed a complaint against Celeste McEntee, the GOP nominee for state representative on the Oregon Coast, alleging she lied in her voters pamphlet statement.
Meet the two candidates running to replace State Rep. Rachel Prusak: Aeric Estep and West Linn Mayor Jules Walters.
National groups are making big contributions to House and Senate Democrats in Oregon. Here’s an excerpt from WW with context: “This year, Democratic caucuses have collectively raised about $6.1 million to the $4.75 million Republican caucuses have raised, but when you add in Bring Balance to Salem’s $4 million, GOP candidates have a rare fundraising advantage.”
Thomas Lauderdale hosted a fundraiser for Betsy Johnson. Here’s an excerpt from the WW story:
“Co-hosts of the Sunday event included former Gov. Ted Kulongoski, Columbia Sportswear CEO Tim Boyle, high-powered divorce lawyer Jody Stahancyk and onetime state Sen. Margaret Carter (D-Portland)—all figures sophisticated enough to read poll results that suggest Johnson has no chance of winning and disproportionately takes votes away from Democratic nominee Tina Kotek.”
The Washington Post ran a story on how the Oregon GOP is focusing on crime and public safety in key races across the state.
2. Titus’ Take: GOP shouldn’t celebrate just yet
This section is authored by Alex Titus. He served in the Trump Administration and worked for a number of GOP-aligned super PACs and political organizations.
Saying the GOP is riding high on Oregon right now is an understatement. Christine Drazan has repeatedly led in public polls, congressional candidate Lori Chavez-DeRemer appears to be well-positioned in a district President Joe Biden easily won, and strategists say the GOP is poised to pick up seats in both state legislative chambers.
Several key factors point to a pending Red Wave. President Joe Biden’s approval ratings are underwater, gas prices and inflation are still sky-high, and Americans generally don’t like to reward the current president’s party during mid-term elections.
But the GOP shouldn’t get ahead of itself. Here are two reasons why I’m still biting my nails heading into the election:
History Rhymes
Fact: The Democratic Party of Oregon is one of the most resilient and battle-tested parties in the country, repeatedly sending “Red Waves” crashing into an impenetrable “Blue Wall.”
Governor Ted Kulongoski held strong against State Rep. Kevin Mannix in 2002 despite facing historic levels of popularity from President George W. Bush in the first post-9/11 election while other Democrats got trounced.
Governor John Kitzhaber held GOP nominee Chris Dudley at bay in 2010 despite Republicans picking up record-breaking seats and offices across the country.
Kitzhaber then went on to be easily reelected in 2014 despite historic pick-ups again for the GOP across the country, including in deep blue states like Massachusetts and Maryland. Democrats like Senator Jeff Merkley, Rep. Kurt Schrader, and Rep. Peter DeFazio easily won re-election as well.
History doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme—and that should make the GOP nervous up to Election Day.
One National Trend Helping Oregon Democrats
As noted above, Oregon Democrats don’t have a lot going for them—but one national trend might help: lackluster GOP candidates nationally. Let me explain.
A number of deep-blue states that previously nominated strong GOP candidates for governor have this time chosen candidates who have little chance of winning (e.g. Massachusetts and Maryland).
GOP candidates are also struggling in places like Georgia and Arizona, which were once seen as easy wins.
How exactly does that help Tina Kotek and other Democrats? Simple: money and support.
Democratic financial and grassroots resources that otherwise would have gone into competitive races can now go be re-routed to places like Oregon.
GOP dollars which might otherwise be heading to Oregon are instead being used to prop up candidates that should have had easier paths to victory.
Competitive statewide, congressional, and legislative races could be divided by razor thin margins—and money could be the difference.
3. Measure 114: Oregon’s decision point on guns
Oregonians will determine the state’s direction on firearm regulation this November in the form of Measure 114. Major restrictions on firearm purchases and ownership will be instituted if the measure passages.
What’s It’s In The Measure?
If passed, the measure would institute some of the strictest firearm regulations in the country. Here are the key points of the measure:
require permits issued by local law enforcement to buy a firearm;
require photo ID, fingerprints, safety training, criminal background check, and fee payment to apply for a permit; and
prohibit manufacturing, importing, purchasing, selling, possessing, using, or transferring ammunition magazines capable of holding more than 10 rounds and make violations a class A misdemeanor
Who Are The Players?
Major political players and organizations on both sides of the aisle are engaged on the measure:
Prominent supporters of the measure include:
Lift Every Voice Oregon is the primary sponsor of Measure 114. The group is run by well-known pastor and activist Rev. Mark Knutson who has been outspoken on combating gun violence. Other groups include Everytown for Gun Safety and former Rep. Gabby Giffords.
A notable missing endorsement is the Democratic Party of Oregon. They decided to take no stance on the measure.
Prominent opponents of the measure include:
National organizations like the National Rifle Association (NRA) and state groups such as the Oregon State Sheriff’s Association are opposed.
Cash Race
Proponents of the measure have raised nearly $2 million, including $750,000 from Connie Balmer, the wife of former Microsoft executive and billionaire Steve Balmer.
Opponents of the measure have raised nearly $175,000 from three separate organizations.
4. Oregon Bridge Podcast: District Attorney Kevin Barton on Measure 110, the public defense crisis, and Betsy Johnson
Kevin Barton is the District Attorney of Washington County. First elected in 2018, he previously served as a career prosecutor in the same office. Both of Barton's elections for DA made state and national headlines, with millions of dollars raised from wealthy donors on both sides (including Phil Knight and George Soros).
In this episode we cover Barton's elections, the philosophy behind his national media appearances (including Fox News), how Multnomah County impacts his work in Washington County, and why he supports Betsy Johnson. We also cover two high-profile issues that will be facing the state legislature in 2023: Measure 110 and the public defense crisis.
5. The Way: Conkling on negative ads; Hester on what voters care about
Make sure you don’t miss two great pieces in The Oregon Way from editors and columnists Gary Conkling and Mark Hester. Conklin addresses the effectiveness of the mountain of negative ads you’re seeing on TV and Hester argues what issues truly matter to voters at the ballot box—and how should politicians approach them.
6. A celebrity endorsement for charter reform (and other Portland news)
Here are some highlights from Portland this week, including a celebrity endorsement, a major soccer win, and more political controversy.
After the onset of the pandemic, Rene Gonzalez founded a PAC called ED300—and now it’s creating controversy in his campaign. According to Pamplin: “A majority of the candidates the ED300 PAC endorsed were also backed by conservative and sometimes far-right groups with anti-LGBTQ and anti-abortion agendas”.
Some good news for Gonzalez: an administrative law judge threw out a $77,000 fine levied against him by elections officials relating to his use of donated office space.
The two candidates for Multnomah County Commission Chair, Sharon Meieran and Jessica Vega Pederson, support Mayor Ted Wheeler’s plan on homelessness.
Meieran and Gonzalez both received a significant boost from a Portland “Super PAC” that launched a six-figure ad blitz.
The Portland Thorns won the national championship—and bidders are lining up to buy the Timbers/Thorns from Merritt Paulson.
Worth noting: nearly every political leader in the city wants him to sell.
A new report show that the Trump Administration gathered intensive information on individuals arrested at Black Lives Matter protests in 2020. The report was initially released with heavy redactions; the new version offers more information (courtesy of the Biden Administration), including extensive “dossiers”—a method usually used for “non-U.S. citizens or only on Americans with ‘a demonstrated terrorism nexus’”, according to the AP.
Celebrities & Charter Reform: Portland’s Charter Reform measure has brought out interesting cross-partisan coalitions—and now even celebrities are chiming in. Hunger Games star Jennifer Lawrence voiced her support for the measure in a video for the organization RepresentUs, where she serves on the board. “[Charter reform] give voters real choices by allowing them to rank candidates on their ballot and improve city management,” Lawrence said in the video.
7. Should we spend more or less money on homelessness?
Thanks to our friends at the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center for this week’s graphic that shows most Oregonians believe local officials should do more to reduce homelessness.
8. News Wrap-Up: Witches, Fire, and Idaho
Halloween Fun: Be careful out there, a massive number of witches were spotted storming the Willamette River over the weekend.
Fiery Remarks: The story of a U.S. Forest Service employee being arrested for a controlled burn is not going away. Forest Service Chief Randy Moore sent an email to 25,000 forest service employees blasting the Oregon Sheriff who authorized the arrest and noting that he "won’t stand idly by without fully defending the Burn Boss and all employees carrying out their official duties as federal employees.” Grant County District Attorney Jim Carpenter defended the actions of the sheriff in his own statement.
Gov. John Kitzhaber is urging a no vote on Measure 111—the ballot measure making healthcare a constitutional right.
From the Associated Press: A drag story time at a Eugene pub garnered national attention when protestors of the event, some of whom carried firearms, threw stones and smoke bombs.
Idaho Fever: CBS News did a profile on why some Oregonians want to become part of Idaho. Read the piece here.
Thank you for reading.
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About the Authors
Ben Bowman is the chair of the Tigard-Tualatin School Board and the Democratic nominee for Oregon House District 25 (Tigard and Beaverton). In his day job, he works as an administrator for a public school district. Previously, he worked as a legislative aide for former Reps. Margaret Doherty and Val Hoyle. He also co-hosts The Oregon Bridge podcast. In the newsletter and podcast, he speaks only for himself.
Alex Titus is a small business owner and consultant to businesses, nonprofits, and associations. Previously, he served as an Advisor in the Trump Administration and as a Policy Advisor to President Trump’s Super PAC. His writing has appeared in National Review, Fox News, The Hill, RealClearPolitics, and other publications.