The Liftoff: One pandemic trend you're probably wrong about (plus Afghanistan reverberations & history-making Oregonians)
PLUS: Former VP Mike Pence is coming, the Delta variant shreds through the urban-rural divide, action in the Governor's race, dark money, and weird Portland things
Welcome back to The Liftoff! The newsletter with everything you need to know about Oregon politics, government, campaigns, and elections. This week, we’ve got some encouraging news—to go along with the grim news.
Before we dive in, a special shout-out to the folks who have become paying subscribers. We sincerely appreciate the support. For just $10/month, you can become a founding member of this community of civic-minded Oregonians.
1. One thing you probably got wrong about the pandemic
Some surprising news from the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis’ newsletter, by Josh Lehner:
“Speaking of education and counter to the conventional wisdom, the data continue to point to the lack of in-person schooling not being a macroeconomic constraint. No doubt it is a micro constraint for impacted families, but at the top line it is hard to see any real impacts when it comes to basic statistics...
For example, here in Oregon the unemployment rate for women is lower than for men. A more accurate look can be found in economist Jed Kolko’s updated analysis that finds employment rates for moms are now outperforming women without children nationally. These findings are surprising to some and do run counter to the conventional wisdom.”
2. End of the war in Afghanistan reverberates in Oregon
State Sen. Kayse Jama and State Rep. Khanh Pham, two legislative leaders on immigrant and refugee issues, wrote a letter to Governor Kate Brown calling for Oregon to welcome Afghan refugees. Alongside the majority of legislative Democrats, two Republicans signed: Senator Tim Knopp and Senator Bill Hansell. Senator Betsy Johnson did not sign the letter.
Brown quickly released a statement agreeing and saying Oregon is ready to help the feds make it happen.
NYT Columnist Nick Kristof played the role of private citizen emissary, writing on social media: “I’ve been in touch with the head of the International Rescue Committee, which does a wonderful job with resettlement, to discuss Oregon’s enthusiasm to help.”
One unexpected Oregon connection: former President Ashraf Ghani, who fled the country as the Taliban overtook the nation’s capitol of Kabul, went to Lake Oswego High School for one year as a foreign exchange student. Here’s a great article in The O if this is as fascinating to you as it is to me.
Oregon veterans are struggling with the implications of the United States’ quick exit and the Taliban’s return to power.
3. Two prominent Oregonians make history with big promotions
Oregonian Liz Shuler has become the first woman to lead the 12.5 million member AFL-CIO, one of the most powerful labor organizations in the country. Shuler grew up in Gladstone, graduated from the U of O, and worked for IBEW Local 125 in Oregon before hitting the national stage.
Chuck Sams, a former leader of the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation, has been nominated by President Joe Biden as the next director of the National Park Service. If confirmed, he will be the first Native American to serve in the role.
4. Former VP Mike Pence is coming to Oregon (and he’s getting paid a lot to do it)
Journalist Jacob Fenton’s digging on ORESTAR, the state campaign finance database, has revealed an eyebrow-raising nugget of information: the Washington County Republican Party is paying former Vice President Mike Pence at least $37,500 to come to Oregon for a fundraising event. That’s the amount listed for “Reagan Dinner Speaker Fee Deposit” on the expenditure filing. The dinner will be on October 2. According to the website, tickets are $150.
5. This week’s round-up of news in the race for Governor
Oregon Speaker Tina Kotek, a potential leading contender in the Democratic primary for governor, was awarded the “Most Valuable Player” award by the Fair Shot for All Coalition for her work during the legislative session. The Fair Shot steering committee includes many of the most powerful progressive groups in Oregon (including some who have criticized Kotek), all of whom will be coveted endorsers and financial backers in the Democratic primary for Governor. This is good news for Kotek.
Yamhill County Commissioner and Democratic candidate for governor Casey Kulla is this week’s guest on The Oregon Bridge podcast: “Why a Scientist and Former Cannabis Farmer Wants to be Governor.” Here’s the Apple Podcasts link and the Spotify link. In other news, Kulla’s campaign released results from an internal text poll of “registered Democrats and likely voters” this week that showed him with a surprisingly high level of support.
Bridget passes Bud is cash race: As of Sunday, Dr. Bud Pierce had $306,253.99 in his campaign account. Bridget Barton had $313,632.59. The rest of the field is at least $150,000 behind.
6. As health care system moves toward “collapse,” Delta variant exposes the urban-rural divide—and its limits
First, an emerging governance problem: Some rural sheriffs are indicating they won’t enforce the Governor’s public health mandates (especially masks). First it was Union County Sheriff Cody Bowen; now Columbia County Sheriff Brian Pixley as issued a statement. This continues a trend that started before the pandemic (see “gun sanctuary counties”).
Meanwhile, the situation in southern Oregon, which has very low vaccination rates, is dire. Here’s an excerpt from a remarkable piece on a Josephine County Commission meeting by April Ehrlich for Jefferson Public Radio: “During the nearly three-hour public meeting, the commissioners repeatedly interrupted health experts to question the efficacy of the vaccines, suggest the surge was caused by Mexican immigrants, and promote medicines like hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID — even though there’s no scientific evidence showing that those medicines can successfully treat or prevent the coronavirus.”
A parting shot from Commissioner Herman Baertschiger, former Senate GOP Leader: “Alls I know is I got a bunch of sick people and I’m trying to figure out how to slow that down and stop it.”
While rural officials are resisting government mandates, leaders in the metro area are calling for more. Washington County Commissioner Nafisa Fai wrote on Twitter: “If the current COVID-19 situation is a dire situation then why aren’t public health officials being brave and putting everything on the table to help save lives. Including shutdown. @OregonGovBrown please help!”
It turns out that the “urban-rural divide” has limits. “Metro area hospitals are filling with unvaccinated patients from Southern Oregon,” Robb Cowie of the Oregon Health Authority told OPB.
Rep. Rachel Prusak (D-West Linn), a nurse, shared this dire statement on Facebook about Oregon’s health care system: “We are not just a system in crisis, we are a system moving toward collapse.” OHA Director Pat Allen echoed those comments: “Our health care system is on the verge of collapse in parts of the state.”
7. So why aren’t they getting vaccinated?
Thanks to our friends at The Oregon Values and Beliefs Center for this graphic explaining the main reasons for vaccine hesitancy among Oregonians.
8. An embarrassing debacle in Portland as Proud Boys and Antifa openly battle in the streets (again)
First, the let’s set the stage. This is a real headline from Friday that sounds like a Portlandia skit: “Bracing for brawling right-wing groups to flood Portland, Wheeler pleads for protesters to ‘choose love’”
But the story gets weirder (read: worse). At one point in the press conference, mayoral advisor and former mayor Sam Adams interrupted a (prescient) question from Maggie Vespa of KGW about when police would intervene in a conflict, yelling “come on!” She was cut off and the press conference moved on to the next question. Later, one reporter (unclear who; Zane Sparling was called on, but Adams referred to the voice as “Jonathan” — probably Jonathan Levinson of OPB) said, “Sam, can the Mayor answer the question that was not answered a few minutes ago before you yelled at us? Can we allow for the questions to be answered instead of getting yelled at?” Adams then said “I was talking to somebody else, Jonathan.”
Vespa later tweeted: “This… was bizarre.” Indeed. Watch the whole thing for yourself.
The press conference was appropriate foreshadowing for Sunday’s night conflict between the Proud Boys and Antifa. Early reports from the Sunday debacle indicate there were gunshots, fireworks, beatings with bats, paintball guns, and more. Follow Sergio Olmos on Twitter (@MrOlmos) for some remarkable video coverage of a dangerous and shameful night in Portland.
8. Dark money donors create group to push Portland politicians to fix things
If you don’t like dark money in politics, but you do think Portland needs to be cleaned up, you’re about to feel conflicted.
This week’s must-read reporting is from Hillary Borrud of The O. Here’s the headline: “Dark money group launches campaign to push Portland-area leaders for results on police reforms, homelessness, cleanup efforts.” Democrat Kevin Looper and Republican Dan Lavey, the veteran political consultants behind the new effort, published an op-ed in the Sunday Oregonian outlining their vision and plan. We don’t know who is paying for their group, called People for Portland, other than Columbia Sportswear CEO Tim Boyle.
Looper and Lavey blame politicians for Portland’s problems. From the article: “Looper said in an interview Friday that the central problem facing Portland is ‘the lack of courage among elected officials … which is making them more afraid of doing the wrong thing than doing something.’” Their theory of action is that if they can build public pressure to lean on elected leaders, they can force through the reforms they say are widely agreed upon by residents — within two years.
Which policies are they pursuing? From the op-ed: “We have three goals: 1) end the humanitarian crisis on our streets by more quickly transitioning people from dangerous, inhumane camps to safe, temporary shelters or housing; 2) immediately clean-up the garbage, graffiti and dangerous waste now commonplace across our once beautiful city and 3) enhance public safety – by expanding the Portland Street Response to better serve Portlanders experiencing addiction and mental health issues; adding police and neighborhood patrols to address rising violent crime; and requiring body cameras on police to strengthen transparency and justice.”
9. Renters struggle to access relief; DeFazio calls out state government
COVID-19 continues to challenge Oregon’s state government. From Sophie Peel in Willamette Week: “In Multnomah County, 10,221 of the nearly 14,000 renters who requested rental assistance through the state’s Emergency Rental Assistance Program since May haven’t even had their applications opened.”
Congressman Peter DeFazio has noticed the government failure. According to Dick Hughes of Oregon Capital Insider: “During [his] town hall, DeFazio blasted Oregon’s delays in providing pandemic-related rental assistance, saying the state has handled that program as miserably as it did unemployment benefits.”
Meanwhile, Governor Kate Brown announced that she extended Oregon’s residential mortgage foreclosure moratorium until December 31, 2021.
Thank you for reading.
Tips? Feedback? Ideas? Corrections? We want to hear from you! Email benjaminwbowman@gmail.com.
If you value this newsletter, please become a paying subscriber today. Your support will help us grow and offer more opportunities to this community. It’s just $10 a month!