The Liftoff: Redistricting backlash and the race to replace Speaker Kotek
PLUS: School superintendents are stuck, gun violence in Portland, Katherine Gehl coming on the podcast, Novick sparks interest in property taxes, and Tom McCall's reelection campaign slogan.
Happy Labor Day! Welcome to another installment of The Liftoff: the newsletter with everything you need to know about Oregon politics, government, campaigns, and elections.
As you probably know, Oregon was the first state in the country to recognize Labor Day, way back in 1887. For more Labor Day history and trivia, check of the U.S. Department of Labor website. Here’s an excerpt: “The nation pays tribute on Labor Day to the creator of so much of the nation's strength, freedom, and leadership – the American worker.” We hope you take time today to honor and appreciate the working people of Oregon.
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1. Proposed redistricting maps ignite backlash; legislative compromise seems unlikely (but not impossible!)
Last Friday, the the House and Senate Redistricting Committees released their initial proposed maps for the state legislature and congress. For the legislative maps, Plan A is from Senate Democrats, Plan B is from House Republicans, and Plan C is from House Democrats. We recommend viewing them on the interactive software ArcGIS so you can zoom in to see roads, rivers, schools, and more.
So, how did the unveiling of the maps go? Not great!
Rep. Shelly Boshart Davis, the Republican co-chair (not vice chair!) of the House Committee, came out swinging with allegations of partisanship and gerrymandering, saying: “Our current districts have diluted the voices of Oregonians for two decades to advance one political party and incumbent politicians.” That earned some firm pushback from the Democratic co-chair, Rep. Andrea Salinas, who said, “With all due respect to my co-chair, repeating the false claim of gerrymandering doesn’t make it true.”
All three legislative maps are very different. OPB’s analysis suggests A and C (the Senate’s and the House Dems’, respectively) are both skewed toward Dems, while B (the House Republicans’) is skewed toward the GOP.
What about the congressional maps? Here are two takes from Twitter that sum it up:
From Benjamin Morris, SEIU 503 Communications Director:
“Anyone who thinks [the Republican map] fairly represents Oregon voters is either too partisan or too gullible to be taken seriously.”
From Reagan Knopp, Oregon Right to Life Political Director:
“The Democrat map is truly absurd. Who in their right mind thinks this is a fair map?”
So what’s the most likely outcome at this point? Seems like we are destined for Secretary of State Shemia Fagan to draw the legislative lines, and a judicial panel to draw the congressional lines. But there is still time for a bipartisan, bicameral compromise to be forged before the September 27th deadline. For more information on the process or how to provide public input, visit the Legislature’s website.
2. Kotek is running; who will be the next speaker?
OPB reporter Dirk VanderHart broke the *official* Speaker Tina Kotek story (Rachel Monahan of WW teased it back on July 27): she is officially running for Governor. This was, of course, no surprise—but it’s still huge news. Her website platform emphasizes Oregon’s pandemic/wildfire recovery, progressive economic policy, health care, and climate change. She has already been endorsed by Reps. Paul Evans (D-Monmouth), Susan McLain (D-Hillsboro), Rob Nosse (D-East Portland)—no doubt there will be more to follow.
The next move will likely be from NYT Columnist Nick Kristof, Treasurer Tobias Read, or Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum. With Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle and SEIU 503 President Melissa Unger indicating they’re unlikely to run, the field has taken a much clearer shape in the last two weeks.
As VanderHart mentioned in his story, Speaker Kotek will be unable to raise money during the 2022 short session because of House Rules—so it is entirely plausible she will resign before February, creating a vacancy in the speakership for the first time in a decade.
So, who are her potential replacements?
We’ve heard rumors of three candidates potentially interested in the position (which includes more reasonable compensation of $75,000—far more than the other representatives make): Reps. Andrea Salinas, Janelle Bynum, and Dan Rayfield. Other potential candidates include Reps. Julie Fahey, Karin Power, and Major Leader Barbara Smith Warner. One other option, particularly for the short session, is elevating Speaker Pro Tempore Rep. Paul Holvey, a well-liked legislative veteran.
Salinas (who chairs the House Redistricting Committee) and Bynum (who briefly challenged Kotek for speaker last cycle) are both members of the BIPOC Caucus; Rayfield is the current co-chair of the powerful Ways and Means Committee, where he helps craft the state budget.
Rayfield has an impressive $141,000 in his PAC (expected for a budget writer!). Bynum has $67,000 and Salinas has $39,000.
Expect this behind-the-scenes campaign to heat up in the Fall.
3. How much longer will Oregon be Oregon?
Other than family heirlooms, my most prized possessions are four framed posters from Governor Tom McCall’s re-election campaign in 1970. They are beautiful, colorful landscape photos from famous Oregon photographer Ray Atkeson of Mt. Hood, Cannon Beach, Oneonta Gorge, and eastern Oregon wheat fields. The bottom of each poster says: Keep Oregon, Oregon. Keep Tom McCall.
Reading this New York Times article by Sergio Olmos, which describes the impact of the Pacific Northwest’s changing climate (including heat, drought, and smoke) on “farm owners, fieldworkers and state regulators”, makes me wonder how much longer Oregon will be Oregon—at least in the way McCall meant.
Here are some other headlines about Oregon’s climate and the state of our natural environment:
“Record-low steelhead returns on Columbia River prompt call for fishing shutdown” via OPB
“Experts: Oregon seems to be in ‘perpetual drought’” via AP
And this devastating video from OPB: “Before and after video captures the impact of Oregon’s 2020 Labor Day wildfires from above”
“Recreation on parts of Willamette River deemed unsafe because of toxic algae” via OPB
There are dozens more articles that paint a picture of a state in climate distress—one that is on track to look drastically different than McCall’s Oregon in the 60s and 70s. McCall, a Republican at the time, was excoriated by some interest groups for land use planning (perhaps his most important legacy), which was specifically designed to “Keep Oregon, Oregon”.
What will be the next Oregon-specific policy proposals, of the same scale and impact as land use planning, to bolster the preservation of Oregon’s environment and improve our resiliency in a rapidly changing climate?
4. Sneak peek: An interview with business leader Katherine Gehl
Don't miss our exclusive interview with business leader, author, political theorist, and speaker of a popular TED talk Katherine Gehl dropping this Wednesday on the Oregon Bridge Podcast (click here to subscribe on Apple, Spotify, or Audible).
Gehl, a successful businesswoman who sold her high-tech food company for $250 million, is the originator of Politics Industry Theory. Her organization, the Institute For Political Innovation (IPI), is working to bring Final Five voting to states across the country.
Final-Five Voting is the combination of (1) a single open primary election with the top 5 candidates advancing to the general election and (2) ranked-choice voting in the general election. A similar proposal passed in Alaska in 2020.
Paging Oregon politicos: Asked if Oregon was a target state, Gehl responded that Oregon is under serious consideration for a ballot measure initiative come 2024—if there are some Oregon leaders willing to take it on.
5. Oregon superintendent fired for following mask rules? Maybe not.
Liliana Frankel of The Malheur Enterprise provided excellent reporting about the Adrian School District’s firing of superintendent Kevin Purnell; the article is titled “Adrian School Board fires superintendent for obeying state's mask mandate”. The board fired Purnell 4-1, without explanation, after a closed-door executive session. The pictures from the meeting are powerful.
The Oregonian penned an editorial condemning the actions of the Adrian School Board and the Newberg School Board, including this excerpt:
“Both the Adrian and Newberg school boards can change the trajectory they’ve chosen. They can admit their mistakes and teach students the valuable lesson that errors are both a part of human nature and an opportunity for learning. They can commit to putting students’ health and welfare first, respect our laws, follow public health guidance and embrace the diversity of students’ backgrounds and identities.”
But an article from the Oregon School Boards Association paints a murkier and more personal portrait of the situation in Adrian, a very small town near the Idaho border: “The board chair and the former superintendent agree the end wasn’t about whether the superintendent followed Gov. Kate Brown’s mask mandate.” It goes on to say the board chair and former superintendent are related by marriage and close family friends—but that Purnell and the board had not seen eye-to-eye for months.
Both situations reveal a growing structural tension in Oregon’s so-called “local control” education system: state laws, policies, and mandates trump local decisions—and the state has significant leverage because it provides most of the dollars for local education agencies and the licenses for the professionals who work in school districts.
6. Steve Novick prompts Twitter alignment on property tax reform
If you haven’t read former Portland City Commissioner (and longtime policy wonk) Steve Novick’s most recent piece on The Oregon Way about reforming Oregon’s property tax system, check it out. It sparked some dialogue amongst elected leaders—at least on Twitter!
Rep. Ricki Ruiz, a freshman Democrat from Gresham, posted the piece on Twitter and said, “It’s time we take on a property tax reform and address Measure 50 in Oregon. Who is in?” The answer? Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal, Rep. Maxine Dexter, Tualatin Hills Parks and Recreation District Director Felicita Monteblanco, Bend City Councilor Melanie Kebler, and several others expressed commitment to reforming Oregon’s system.
Of course, that’s easier said than done. It has been discussed for years, without change. Novick is suggesting a smaller-scale fix than total property tax reform (which folks like Senator Ginny Burdick have suggested): he proposes a ballot measure that would charge property owners their share of all future bond measures based on what their home is actually worth (vs. the Measure 50 value). Polling from DHM suggests it’s viable.
7. Prominent Oregonians on the move or in the news
Multnomah County Commissioner Jessica Vega Pederson is running for Multnomah County Chair (current Chair Deb Kafoury is term limited out)
Governor Kate Brown has appointed Rukaiyah Adams, Chief Investment Officer of Meyer Memorial Trust and someone frequently rumored to be considering running for governor or Portland mayor, to serve on the Higher Education Coordinating Commission
The Wall Street Journal interviewed Nike CEO John Donahoe on his routines, philosophy, and pandemic lessons learned
Oregonian sports columnist John Canzano is out with his list of “The 25 Most Influential People in Oregon Sports” and it features some political powerhouses, including Governor Kate Brown (#7) and Nike co-founder Phil Knight (#2).
Posted without comment: “Portland mayor’s new communications director, a reality TV producer, quits after 1 week on job”
8. Gun violence in Portland intensifies: 9 different shootings in 16 hours
Portland police were forced to scramble to 9 different shooting scenes in a 16-hour timespan last week, according to a press release from the Portland Police Bureau.
The team over at KGW compiled a list of the shooting locations and timelines. Sadly, a service dog was killed and two individuals were seriously injured.
This particularly chaotic and dangerous night is part of a larger surge in violent crime that Portland has faced in 2021 (over 830 shootings and 62 homicides).
Portland Police Spokesperson Sergeant Kevin Allen told us in a statement "[Portland police officers] don’t want this to be our new routine and we hope to be a part of the larger community solution going forward."
Thank you for reading.
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