The Liftoff: The most brutal attack ads of the cycle
PLUS: Drazan's narrow lead; Phil Knight doubles down; candidate allegedly lies in the voters pamphlet; surprising twists in metro-area elections; multiple crises in Oregon's health system; and more!
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1. The most brutal attack ads of the cycle
It’s officially October, which means attack ads are flooding the airwaves. Here’s one example:
Andrea Salinas’ new ad says “We can’t trust Mike Erickson to keep us safe,” highlighting a previous encounter he had with law enforcement that was described in detail in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.
Erickson does not dispute his DUI arrest in 2016, but pushes back on the claim of a drug charge, saying he was not charged for having his wife’s oxycodone in his pocket.
For our list of the most brutal, aggressive attack ads of the cycle, check out this post for subscribers only: “The most brutal political ads of the cycle”
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2. Drazan narrowly leads governor’s race (a look at the polling)
There were several new gubernatorial polls released last week, which all paint a similar picture: Drazan slightly ahead of Kotek, within the margin of error, and Johnson in a distant third. What are the factors driving these numbers? One important thing to note is the candidates’ favorable ratings, from Nelson Research:
Betsy Johnson: -11.8
Tina Kotek: -11.9
Christine Drazan: +3.9
Additionally, the polling finds that Johnson is peeling a higher percent of Democrats away from Kotek than she’s peeling Republicans away from Drazan.
Here’s the 538 polling average, as of 10/2:
Drazan: 32.8%, Kotek: 32.6%, and Johnson: 20.2%
BUT: 538 still gives Kotek a 56% chance of winning (44% for Drazan and <1% for Johnson).
Here’s the Real Clear Politics polling average, as of 10/2:
Drazan: 35.5%, Kotek: 33.0%, and Johnson: 17.0%
What are the top issues on voters’ mind? An analysis from the Oregonian shows three issues commanding the most attention from voters, with about 70% calling them “very important”:
Homelessness
Crime
Cost of living
3. Big-ticket items from the last week
Phil Knight doubles down on Republican legislative candidates, giving another $1 million check to “Bring Balance to Salem PAC”
Celeste McEntee, the GOP nominee in the central coast district running against Rep. David Gomberg, allegedly lied in her voters pamphlet statement by including endorsements from Stand for Children and the Oregon Farm Bureau—neither of which endorsed her.
The three candidates debated in Bend last week on KTVZ: you can watch Part 1 here and Part 2 here. There will be at least three more debates:
Tuesday, October 4 on KATU
Thursday, October 6 on KOBI
Wednesday, October 19 on KGW
4. The biggest surprises (and bloopers) from the 2022 Voters Pamphlet
This week, Ben and Reagan analyze the 2022 Voters Pamphlet. They talk about the mechanics of getting into the voters pamphlet, why it matters, and some of the common (and uncommon) strategies that campaigns use to appeal to voters. This year, there were some funny “bloopers”—mistakes, spelling errors, and minor embellishments—plus some unusual endorsements (including a high-profile professional athlete).
5. Multiple crises accelerate across Oregon’s health system
Here are some headlines and stories that paint a picture of the challenges facing Oregon’s health care system and its health institutions:
First a jaw-dropping cover story from the New York Times. Here’s the lede: “With the help of a consulting firm, the Providence hospital system trained staff to wring money out of patients, even those eligible for free care.”
From OPB: “Oregon’s EMS provider shortage reaches ‘breaking point’”
From the Oregonian: “Three of Oregon’s largest hospital systems have sued the state over its failure to provide adequate care for mentally ill patients, which they say has forced the hospital systems to house patients in need of mental health treatment for months.”
From the Oregonian: “The number of patients stuck in hospital limbo exploded in the second quarter of the year, another worrying sign of Oregon hospitals’ descent into critical financial condition.”
6. Surprising twists in metro-area politics
For the May 2022 primary, the Oregonian Editorial Board endorsed Commissioner Sharon Meieran to be the next Multnomah County Chair. For the November 2022 general election, they’ve changed their mind and are supporting Commissioner Jessica Vega Pederson.
A DHM Research polls shows a commanding lead for Rene Gonzalez against incumbent City Commissioner Jo Ann Hardesty. Gonzalez registered support from 50% of respondents; Hardesty was at just 26%.
From the Oregonian: “Nearly two-thirds of likely Portland voters say they’ll back a contested ballot measure this fall to radically reshape the city’s form of government and election system”
Commissioner Mingus Mapps has released his alternative to the charter reform proposal on the ballot. He’s urging voters to reject this year’s ballot measure so his “simpler, less experimental overhaul” next spring.
7. News Roundup: Paulson sells minority stake in Timbers/Thorns, PPB struggling to hire, and a tiny Oregon town in the news
From Willamette Week: “City leaders have promised for months to expand Portland’s police force—while struggling to actually do it. Cops have retired or resigned from the force faster than Portland could hire them. As of last week, the Portland Police Bureau had the lowest number of sworn employees since 1989.”
From the Oregonian: “Would-be Metolius developers sue Oregon for $30 million, saying state didn’t live up to bargain”
From the Capital Chronicle: “Leah Feldon, deputy director of the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality will lead the agency following the departure of former Director Richard Whitman this week.”
From the Associated Press: “Tiny Oregon town hosts 1st wind-solar-battery ‘hybrid’ plant”. The town? Lexington, Oregon.
From the Oregonian: “Merritt Paulson sold a 15% stake in the Portland Timbers and Thorns organization in 2021 to a private equity firm”
Thank you for reading.
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About the Authors
Ben Bowman is the chair of the Tigard-Tualatin School Board and the Democratic nominee for Oregon House District 25 (Tigard and Beaverton). In his day job, he works for the Oregon Department of Education. Previously, he worked as a legislative aide for former Reps. Margaret Doherty and Val Hoyle. He also co-hosts The Oregon Bridge podcast. In the newsletter and podcast, he speaks only for himself.
Alex Titus is a small business owner and consultant to businesses, nonprofits, and associations. Previously, he served as an Advisor in the Trump Administration and as a Policy Advisor to President Trump’s Super PAC. His writing has appeared in National Review, Fox News, The Hill, RealClearPolitics, and other publications. He also co-hosts The Oregon Bridge podcast.