The Liftoff: The most unpredictable race for Oregon governor in decades
PLUS: Redistricting lawsuit, Ron Wyden driving federal tax discussion, school board tensions high, grocery stores taking liquor issue to the ballot, and "People for Portland" gets criticized
Welcome back to The Liftoff!
It’s been a wild week in Oregon politics as the landscape for 2022 takes shape. Check out today’s stories from publications across Oregon with everything you need to know about Oregon politics, government, campaigns, and elections.
Before we jump in, some positive and exciting news, courtesy of The Oregonian: OHSU is projecting Oregon could reach herd immunity by this December (!!!). To everyone who continues to do their part to end this pandemic: thank you!
1. A wild week in the Governor’s race: Johnson jumps in; Kristof inches closer; Kotek opens up; Read calls for vax mandate
The 2022 Governor’s race is shaping up to be the most unpredictable, and perhaps consequential, in decades. State Senator Betsy Johnson has announced she will run for Governor as a non-affiliated candidate, leaving the Democratic Party. Johnson has served in the legislature since 2021 and currently serves as Co-Chair (or Tri-Chair, given her shared role on the senate side with Sen. Elizabeth Steiner Hayward) of the powerful Ways & Means Committee. She is one of the most moderate legislators in Salem; she has sided with Republicans to kill several top-priority issues for Democrats—but she is beloved by her rural, coastal district. She currently has over $500,000 in her PAC.
The last time there was a viable third party candidate in an Oregon governor’s race? In 1990, conservative independent candidate Al Mobley ran in the general against then-Attorney General Dave Frohnmayer and then-Secretary of State Barbara Roberts. Roberts won with 45.7% of the vote, becoming the first woman governor of Oregon. Frohnmayer earned 40% and Mobley earned 13%. There are several different theories about how Johnson might impact the distribution of votes to the two major party nominees—we’ll dive into those in future installments of this newsletter.
Meanwhile, New York Times columnist Nick Kristof has officially left the NYT and started a PAC of his own (he hasn’t reported any financial activity yet).
House Speaker Tina Kotek gave a fascinating interview with Portland Monthly that veered from politics to policy to personal, including what it would mean to be the first lesbian governor in American history. Kotek has $285,000 in her PAC. Here’s an excerpt from the interview:
My wife, and I know the importance of that, for all those young folks out there who are trying to figure out who they are—to see somebody in that position is so incredibly important. I didn’t have that when I was growing up. And of course, being the first out lesbian governor would also, you know, take that up a notch, right? With Newberg, I’m having flashbacks to the 1980s. But when things slide back, you keep pushing forward.
State Treasurer Tobias Read, who is already advertising for his campaign on Facebook, made some headlines for calling on the COVID-19 vaccine to be required for school kids, following FDA approval. Read has $297,000 in his PAC.
2. GOP files first redistricting lawsuit over congressional maps
Four prominent Republicans have filed a legal challenge to Oregon's recently approved Congressional maps, claiming that the maps are skewed in Democrats’ favor. The lawsuit, which was filed by former Secretary of State Bev Clarno, former mayor of The Dalles James Wilcox, former Oregon House Speaker Larry Campbell, and former Republican leader Gary Wilhelms, is the first lawsuit filed since the maps were approved just weeks ago. Former GOP legislator Shawn Lindsay is their attorney. OPB has the story.
The lawsuit asks “the court to block the plan and draw its own”, according to the article.
What politicos are saying: We’ve heard everything from the maps are “definitely changing” to “not a chance” the court will re-draw the lines.
One theory says that, given historical precedent, it is most likely that any changes that do occur will be tinkering around the edges, rather than a wholesale re-do of the maps.
Reality Check: No one actually knows what’s going to happen.
3. More 2022 campaign shake-ups
State Rep. Bill Post, who moved to Nevada, will resign
The new “Santiam Pass” congressional district (CD5), may lead to competitive primaries on both sides. Incumbent Congressman Kurt Schrader is likely to run; he will face Milwaukie Mayor Mark Gamba (again) and likely Jamie McLeod Skinner. On the GOP side, Lori Chavez DeRemer is running; former State Rep. Cheri Helt is considering running, and Alek Skarlatos may join the fray as well.
Q3 Fundraising Rundown: Skarlatos has over $334,000 on hand. Chavez DeRemer has over $193,000 on hand. Schrader has over $3.2 million and the newly-safe (if the districts hold) DeFazio has over $1.3 million.
Portland City Commissioner Dan Ryan has already drawn three primary opponents
Portland City Auditor Mary Hull Caballero is not running for reelection
State Rep. Suzanne Weber will run for the senate seat being vacated by State Sen. Betsy Johnson
Willamette Week has a story about the impact of redistricting on Rep. Marty Wilde, including a quote from Rep. Brad Witt that alleges that he and Wilde’s homes were intentionally moved into Republican-majority districts
4. Chuck Sams and Sen. Ron Wyden on the national stage this week
Chuck Sams is headed to a U.S. Senate hearing this week after he was nominated by President Joe Biden to become National Park Service Director. Sams, who previously served as administrator of the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation, has received glowing marks from Democrats across the state including a strong endorsement from Governor Kate Brown. Gary Warner at Oregon Capitol Bureau has the full story.
Senator Ron Wyden continues to flex his muscles when it comes to influencing national Democrats' tax strategy on how to pay for President Biden’s agenda. Wyden, who Chairs the Senate Finance Committee, has repeatedly made headlines for a number of different tax proposals being considered by Senate democrats. Wyden’s influence can be seen on:
Democrats’ flirtation with a new carbon tax
Tax increases on billionaires for unrealized capital gains (a proposal that Biden supports)
Changes to current tax breaks enjoyed by exchange-traded funds (ETF)
What to expect: Wyden’s proposals continue to make headlines and most are garnering serious support from congressional Democrats and President Biden. Any bill that does end up passing will have been largely crafted by the Senator.
In unrelated news, Sen. Wyden has pushed back on a proposal from the Mt. Bachelor ski resort that he believes is inequitable; they are moving ahead anyway.
5. Liquor, Kicker, and Strikes: News round-up
Third time’s the charm?: The Northwest Grocers Association will try for the third time to appear on the ballot to allow the sale of hard spirits at grocery stores.
Health care workers for Kaiser Permanente are moving closer to a strike, with support from 96% of workers
Oregon had its highest daily death toll of the pandemic on Tuesday. KGW has the story.
From The O: “Oregon’s vaccine mandate kicks in Monday for thousands of workers.”
How much will you get back from the “Kicker?” KATU has you covered.
OPB: “Dozens of Oregon law enforcement officers have been members of the far-right Oath Keepers “
6. Tensions high on school boards; dire situation for schools with shortages
School boards used to be relatively safe from partisanship. With the nationalization of politics and the onset of the pandemic, that has changed dramatically as political and cultural issues have engulfed school boards across the country—including in Oregon. The Oregon Capital Chronicle has an excellent overview of the situation in Oregon.
Case and Point: The Redmond School Board hired an outside legal counsel to push back against masks and other COVID-19 related measures. Thenell Law Group, who was hired for a $5,000 retainer, was hired to represent the district in any legal challenges that may come from not complying with state-wide mandates. Nicole Bales has the original story for the Bend Bulletin.
Several days later, the Board decided not to move forward with the challenge.
Redmond isn’t Oregon’s first school board to clash with action pandemic mandates.
A school board member in Winston-Dillard recently put forward a motion to recall the chair and vice-chair over their decision to abide by state guidelines.
And if you’ve been reading The Liftoff, you’ve seen us highlight the issues plaguing Newberg. Just last week, a homophobic slur was directed at a student during a livestream of their board meeting.
Meanwhile, school districts are suffering from drastic shortages of substitute teachers and bus drivers. Until March 31 of 2022, substitute teachers in Oregon will not need a college degree—they just need to be 18 or older and pass a background check.
7. ACLU of Oregon takes on “People for Portland” group
Last week, “People for Portland” released some polling that indicated public support for hiring more police officers and other initiatives. From KOIN: “The ideas of body cameras for Portland police, doubling the Street Response program, adding staff to the 311 program, and adding precincts throughout the city had overwhelming support — 87% to 96% support in the survey.”
The only problem? The individuals polled were not representative of Portland’s racial diversity. Oregonian reporter Shane Dixon Kavanaugh included that critical context in his piece; here’s an excerpt:
The poll surveyed 600 likely Portland voters between Sept. 22 and 27 and was conducted by GS Strategy Group, an Idaho-based firm with longstanding ties to Republican candidates. It had a 4% margin of error.
Those who took part in the poll overwhelmingly identified as white, comprising 80% of all participants, while Black people made up 2% and Latinos and Asians comprised 7% and 3%, respectively.
Portland’s current racial and ethnic makeup is 68% white, 8% Black, 11% Latino and 10% Asian, census figures show. Some communities of color have long accused the city’s police force of targeting them disproportionately.
Progressive leaders have taken to Twitter to criticize “People for Portland.”
8. Oregon Values and Beliefs Center joins the podcast
Thanks to the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center for this week’s graphic that again demonstrates an area of broad agreement in Oregon, across age ranges: human-caused climate change is a fact. The Zoomer/Millenial coalition (18-44) have the highest levels of agreement; but even the 75 and older crowd has nearly 60% agreement.
Speaking of OVBC, Associate Executive Director of OVBC Amaury Vogel joined the The Oregon Bridge podcast for a wide-ranging conversation, including a look into the center’s mission, problems with the polling industry (and how OVBC addresses the traditional under-representation of people of color and rural Oregonians in polling), and how Oregonians are looking at some of the most pressing issues facing our state.
If you want a glimpse into how Oregonians think about everything from climate change to wildfires to homelessness to Greater Idaho, download and listen on Apple, Spotify, Audible, or YouTube.
Thank you for reading.
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