The Liftoff: Three *new* candidates for Governor
PLUS: A swing-seat Democratic legislator resigns; inside Oregon's severe (and worsening) water crisis; Bentz votes for same-sex marriage; Wheeler declares another emergency; and more!
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1. Three new candidates for governor (and why they matter)
In addition to Tina Kotek, Christine Drazan, and Betsy Johnson, there will be at least two other names on the ballot for Oregon governor: Constitution Party nominee Donice Smith and Green Party nominee Nathalie Paravicini. Additionally, the Libertarian Party has nominated R Leon Noble as their nominee for governor (he hasn’t filed for the ballot yet).
You might be thinking: “Why does this matter? They can’t win.”
Here’s why: With three top-tier candidates running, each spending millions of dollars, the election is expected to be very close. Smith’s presence on the ballot will attract a small percentage of right-wing voters; likewise, Paravicini’s presence will attract a small percentage of left-wing voters. Noble will likely attract a mix of voters. Those small percentages could be larger than the margin of victory, potentially swinging the outcome of the election. Sometimes this is called “the spoiler effect” or “vote-splitting”.
For example: In 2010, John Kitzhaber won the election for governor by about 1.5% of the vote over Republican Chris Dudley; two third-party nominees (from the Constitution Party and Libertarian Party) garnered nearly 3% combined. In 2020, Paravicini was the Green Party nominee for Secretary of State and won almost 4% of the vote.
2. New jobs for familiar faces (and other job news)
State Representative Anna Williams will resign from the legislature in August to begin work as Executive Director of the Oregon System of Care Advisory Council. Williams had previously announced she would not seek reelection; her seat (HD52) is expected to be a very close contest between former Rep. Jeff Helfrich and The Dalles City Councilor Darcy Long.
Nik Blosser, who formerly served as Gov. Kate Brown’s chief of staff, is leaving his post as special assistant to President Joe Biden to come home. Today is the first day of his new job: Vice President of Public Policy at Portland General Electric.
Clackamas County Circuit Court Judge Ann Lininger, a former state representative, has been disqualified from the Oswego Lake public access case by a Multnomah County Circuit Court judge. A different judge will be assigned the case.
3. Oregon’s water crisis is probably worse than you think
First, a fascinating and well-written exposé from OPB about the depletion of groundwater in central Oregon and the struggle between developers, residents, and farmers—and how lawmakers have gotten caught in the middle. Here’s the lede: “In Oregon’s fastest-growing region, more residents are struggling to reach an affordable water supply. A developer’s quest to keep pumping tests what state officials are willing to do about it.”
The lower Deschutes River is in serious trouble with a decline in water quality, causing both ecological and economic challenges. PGE, who operates (with the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs) a dam that impacts the river, says the dam isn’t the problem—the Deschutes River Alliance says that it is.
75 organizations are urging Sens. Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley to pass the River Democracy Act, which they introduced in 2021. The bill would add protections for 4,700 miles of rivers and streams in Oregon. Congressman Cliff Bentz and the American Forest Resources Council oppose the bill.
The good news: three Oregon rivers will split about $3 million in federal funds to support various water and drought issues.
4. The top 5 political stories to follow this summer
This week, Alex and Ben discuss the top 5 political stories that you should be aware of as election season starts to ramp up. We hit on everything from fundraising numbers and competitive congressional seats, to a new ballot initiative on guns, to drama in the Portland sports scene.
5. Schrader endorses Johnson; Bentz votes for gay marriage; congressional fundraising update (and other federal news)
Congressman Kurt Schrader, who recently lost his primary election to Jamie McLeod Skinner, has endorsed Betsy Johnson for governor. He also gave $5,000 each to the congressional campaigns of Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle and Rep. Andrea Salinas (he has not contributed to McLeod Skinner’s campaign).
The fundraising race in the 5th CD, between McLeod Skinner and Lori Chavez-DeRemer, is neck-and-neck, with a combined total of about $2.5 million raised. McLeod Skinner has a slight edge in cash-on-hand, with about $400,000 to $200,000. In CD4, Alek Skarlatos has slightly out-raised Hoyle since the primary election, bringing in roughly $470,000 to Hoyle’s $374,000. The Capitol Chronicle has a full rundown of fundraising numbers.
Rep. Earl Blumenauer and Sen. Jeff Merkley are urging President Joe Biden to declare climate change an emergency under the National Emergency Act to make more resources accessible; Biden’s press secretary said the administration is considering the move.
Congressman Cliff Bentz joined all House Democrats and 46 other Republicans in supporting a bill to codify the right to same-sex and interracial marriage.
6. Wheeler declares another emergency; charter reform in jeopardy (and other Portland news)
Two separate lawsuits have been filed by business leaders against the Portland charter reform ballot measure, arguing the complex question violates the state’s “single subject” rule.
Rene Gonzalez, the run-off candidate against Commissioner Jo Ann Hardesty, implied that he was endorsed by his former competitor Vadim Mozyrsky, according to WW. Mozyrsky called it “disappointing” and said he is not leaning toward supporting either Gonzalez or Hardesty.
Mayor Ted Wheeler declared a gun violence emergency, his fifth emergency declaration in six months, according to WW: “It was also the latest case of the mayor overriding the typical balance of power at City Hall to make some progress on an issue where the government appears paralyzed.”
The current wait time in Portland for new building permits is a staggering 200 days. But the city auditor says progress is being made.
The vast majority of city workers in Portland do not want to return to in-person work full time.
7. The benefits of four-legged friends, according to Oregonians
Thanks to our friends at the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center for this week’s graphic. We agree: this newsletter is strongly pro-pet (mostly dogs).
8. News Roundup: Skyrocketing healthcare costs, Americans dominate in Eugene, and unfinished learning
The cost of health care in Oregon rose nearly 50% between 2013 and 2019, nearly 7% each year, according to the Oregon Health Authority. The highest increase was for those on Medicare (nearly 60%) while the smallest increase was for those on Medicaid, which is managed by Oregon’s unique model of Coordinated Care Organizations (around 30%).
The United States dominated at the World Athletics Championships in Eugene, winning a record-setting 9 gold medals.
It will likely take years for students to catch up from pandemic-related unfinished learning, according to NWEA.
Joey Gibson, leader of the Patriot Prayer group, was acquitted of inciting a riot.
Thank you for reading.
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About the Authors
Ben Bowman is the chair of the Tigard-Tualatin School Board and a Democratic candidate for Oregon House District 25 (Tigard and Beaverton). In his day job, he works for the Oregon Department of Education. Previously, he worked as a legislative aide for former Reps. Margaret Doherty and Val Hoyle. He also co-hosts The Oregon Bridge podcast. In the newsletter and podcast, he speaks only for himself.
Alex Titus is a small business owner and consultant to businesses, nonprofits, and associations. Previously, he served as an Advisor in the Trump Administration and as a Policy Advisor to President Trump’s Super PAC. His writing has appeared in National Review, Fox News, The Hill, RealClearPolitics, and other publications. He also co-hosts The Oregon Bridge podcast.