The Liftoff: Tobias Read is running for Governor; potential redistricting miracle
PLUS: New Oregon polling, the opioid crisis hits home, State Senator forced to leave high school, the latest from Newberg, and Val Hoyle joins the pod!
Welcome to another installment of The Liftoff!
Before we jump into some (big) news, a very happy (belated) birthday to our very own Alex Titus, co-host of The Oregon Bridge podcast!
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1. Redistricting miracle snatched away Saturday; legislature on the brink of failure
There was a a glimmer of hope on Saturday that the legislature would approve new legislative and congressional maps. On Saturday morning, a new -3 amendment to the proposed congressional maps was posted, and rumors circulated that this was enough to get Republican legislators to show up and provide quorum (even if they wouldn’t vote for the maps). The Oregonian called it “a notable concession”, with two districts moving to swing districts—though still leaning toward Democrats.
Republicans, however, were still divided. Gary Warner of EO Media, who has provided excellent reporting throughout special session, tweeted that some Republicans were near the Capitol, ready to provide quorum if called on. However, Rep. Ron Noble (R-McMinnville) was the lone Republican to show up.
Here are two broad generalizations that are driving this standoff:
Republicans do not want progressive Secretary of State Shemia Fagan to draw the legislative maps. They fear that any map she draws would be worse for them (and potentially far worse) than the one the Senate approved, where public feedback was incorporated.
While Democrats are happy to trust Fagan with the legislative maps, they would strongly prefer that their congressional maps be adopted. If they don’t pass, Fagan would not draw them—the task would go to panel of retired judges. Dems fear that the judicial panel’s congressional maps will be worse for them, with Republicans having two or even three safe seats out of the six total.
On Saturday, Democrats were not happy; several had to make personal sacrifices to show up, only to have their entire day wasted sitting around:
Rep. Ricki Ruiz: “Currently at the Oregon Capitol on 2ish hours of sleep with baby in the NICU. Duty calls to do legislative work. I took an oath to serve the people & I am ready to do so. Let’s get this show started! Got a 5 day old baby to go back to & wife who is in recovery mode. #dadduties”
Rep. Dacia Grayber: “I’m using my limited personal leave from work to be here and carry out the work my constituents— and the nearly 2000 folks who took time to testify— have trusted us to do.” She later posted a scorching video calling out Republicans.
Rep. Andrea Valderrama and Rep. Karin Power brought their children to work with them (the highlight of the day was watching kids playing on the house floor).
So what happens next? Kotek announced on Saturday that if there is no quorum by 9:30am this morning, the legislature will throw in the towel and hand the work off to Fagan and the judicial panel.
Will Republicans show up? Your guess is as good as mine.
2. Treasurer Tobias Read jumps in the race for governor
BREAKING: State Treasurer Tobias Read is running for Governor. Check out his post to the Way announcing his run and teasing some potential platform items. Here’s an excerpt:
I’m running for governor because I believe it’s going to take steady leadership to help us move beyond this pandemic and start building a better future. We need to stop lurching from one crisis to the next and lay out a vision for where to take Oregon...not just next year, but for the next generation. My approach is simple: I’ll measure Oregon’s progress by how well our kids are doing.
Read, who has won two statewide elections, has a hefty $261,000 in his PAC, putting him in the lead of declared Democratic candidates. House Speaker Tina Kotek is rapidly catching up with $232,000 in the bank. Yamhill County Commissioner Casey Kulla has about $10,000.
The two remaining heavy-hitters yet to publicly declare their intentions: AG Ellen Rosenblum and NYT columnist Nick Kristof.
3. A crisis you should be paying attention to: addiction
Two troubling headlines that paint a grim picture of addiction in Oregon.
First, from OPB: “Oregon state opioid treatment expert blames fentanyl for spike in overdose deaths”
There were 460 unintentional opioid overdoses in Oregon last year. That’s nearly double the number from 2019.
Second, from WW: “Providers warn: substance abuse treatment is vanishing in Oregon”
But the pandemic has caused havoc for treatment providers. Overdoses have skyrocketed nationally and in Oregon during the pandemic. It is unclear yet what role decriminalization of hard drugs has played in Oregon’s numbers but advocates say that because of payment issues and workforce shortages in the treatment field exacerbated by COVID, the safety net is gone. Social distancing has meant spacing treatment beds further apart and since reimbursement is done on a per capita basis—at what advocates say are very low rates—COVID has hammered revenues.
4. Oregonian leaders in the news
“Portland State Football Coach Offers Free Beer for Fans, Hit With $14,448 Tab” from Sports Illustrated. Kudos to Bruce Barnum. Your move, Mario Cristobal.
“A retired mail carrier moved an obscure struggle for health care coverage and overtime pay into the national spotlight” from WW. The story of how Jamie Partridge helped the Nabisco strike take off.
State Senator and head of the Oregon GOP Dallas Heard was forced to leave a high school in his district, from NR Today.
Clackamas County Commissioner Mark Shull is at it again. This time, he shared a meme that compared vaccine requirements to Nazi Germany. His colleagues (including conservative County Chair Tootie Smith) wrote: “Mark Shull’s post does not reflect the values of Clackamas County or this Board.” They earlier called for his resignation over Islamophobic comments.
Former House Minority Leader and current Circuit Court Judge Mike McLane is stepping down from the bench to return to private practice. He was appointed by Governor Kate Brown; she will also choose his replacement.
The race for Multnomah County Chair will have at least three serious competitors next year. Commissioner Jessica Vega Pederson came out of the gate with a stacked list of endorsements.
5. What is going on in Newberg?
Newberg continues to make headlines. It started with the actions of four conservative school board members, who are attempting to ban district staff from displaying pride flags and Black Lives Matters symbols. The saga has been raging for months and it seems to be escalating. A teacher has been fired for wearing blackface. A student was part of a racist “slave trade” social media group. The board hired an additional lawyer, against the recommendation of their staff. They have threatened to amend the state-mandated Every Student Belongs rule. Over the weekend, police were called to a protest that got physical. There is now an effort to recall the board vice chair, Brian Shannon. A powerful op-ed in the Sunday Oregnian by S. Renee Mitchell began with this line: “My black life never mattered at Newberg High School.”
It’s important to remember this fight, mostly among adults, is impacting students. According to Gallup, about one in six people in Generation Z identify as LGBTQ+. If that holds true for Newberg, it would mean they have over 400 middle and high school students who identify as LGBTQ+. According to the district, about 1% of students are Black.
A personal note: I came out as gay when I was in college—I didn’t come out in high school because I was scared. I’ve been thinking about the Newberg students, and especially the LGBTQ+ and Black students who now find their identities at the center of a public battle. This cannot be an easy time for them.
On Friday night, the Newberg football team came to Tigard. I was in the stands. Before the game started, Tigard senior football player Kellen Jolley read a statement to crowd that’s worth watching.
If you are interested in following the developments in Newberg, my recommendation is to follow Ryan Clarke, reporter for The Newberg Graphic (the Pamplin paper for Newberg) on Twitter: @RyanTClarke.
6. Did Oregon make it way easier to graduate high school?
Oregon made some not-so-flattering headlines with the passage of Senate Bill 744 last session, including this from the Wall Street Journal: “Dumbing Down Oregon”.
The Oregonian had a more descriptive headline: “Oregon students would no longer have to prove they can do basic reading, writing and math to graduate under a new bill”.
OPB is out with reporting that tells a very different story on the topic: “A closer look at Oregon’s decision to drop high school graduation ‘essential skill’ requirements”.
After an in-depth discussion of the bill and its origin (including one district saying that it has never had a student not graduate because of the requirement that was just removed), the article concludes by answering its own question about the impact of the bill: “So, what’s changed? The short answer is, not much.”
Why does this story matter? Education will likely be a key issues in the Governor’s race and legislative races across the state.
7. Oregon loves Build Back Better
According to August polling from the progressive group Data for Progress, Oregonians overwhelmingly support President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion Build Back Better plan—by a 54-point margin. In fact, of the 12 “key states” polled, Oregon has the highest net approval (Washington and North Carolina are next with 50-point margins).
So what makes Oregon a “key state”? One reason: Congressman Kurt Schrader.
The plan’s most popular provisions in Oregon are:
Investing in long term care (90% support)
Expanding Medicare coverage (89% support)
Child care investments (78% support)
The plan’s most popular revenue sources in Oregon are:
Higher income taxes for wealthy (81% support)
Limit deductions for wealthy business owners (80% support)
Increased capital gains tax for wealthy (78%)
According to the memo, Biden has a 56% favorability rating (Donald Trump’s favorability sits at 37%).
Importantly, this polling was conducted in mid-August; Biden’s approval has declined nationally since then. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregation, Biden is underwater with 45.6% approving and 49% disapproving.
8. Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle joins the pod
This week, Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle joined The Oregon Bridge for a wide-ranging conversation on political polarization, the media, apprenticeships, and more.
Val was my boss back when I was a legislative assistant out of college (she is a former State Rep. and former House Majority Leader), so this was a particularly fun conversation for me. We talk about one of my favorite stories from working in the legislature: the story of how Senate Bill 612 passed in 2015 (a bill about education for students with dyslexia and other visual processing disorders).
Listen on Apple, Spotify, Audible, or YouTube.
One clarification from the last Liftoff: Bridget Barton currently has the most cash-on-hand among the GOP field, but Dr. Bud Pierce has raised the most so far. Barton has $302,000 on hand; she’s raised $342,000. Pierce has $260,000 on hand; he’s raised $673,000.
Thank you for reading.
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