The Liftoff: What to make of new polling in the Governor's race
PLUS: Betsy Johnson resigns; Dallas Heard gets ejected; Omicron is here; and Tim Knopp on the pod.
Welcome back to The Liftoff!
It’s hard to believe, but it’s the week of Christmas! To all who celebrate, Merry Christmas from the team at OR360.
1. The GOP field for Governor is wide open, according to new poll
According to polling obtained by The Oregonian, 60% of GOP primary voters in Oregon think their nominee for governor should be “more like Trump.” That led one moderate Republican businessman to abandon his bid before it even started.
What you need to know: The field is wide open. Dr. Bud Pierce polls highest (and by a wide margin), but he only garners about 14% of the vote. Everyone else is at about 3% or lower.
What’s the surest way to raise name ID and favorability? Spend money. This is exactly why fundraising is so important, particularly in a statewide race.
Good news for Betsy Johnson: In the same poll, “30% of likely Republican voters agreed they were ‘open to the possibility’ of voting for her”.
Trump is a perplexing issue for Oregon Republicans. The base still loves him, but he’s toxic in the general election. You can watch Rep. Christine Drazan explain her vision for a post-Trump Republican Party in Oregon here.
On the Democratic side, Nick Kristof, on his new Substack, came out in favor of vaccine mandates, writing: “…vaccine mandates will be a big part of our return to normalcy.” Read more from him on the history of vaccine mandates and why he thinks they will be effective. Kristof also earned the support of a longtime labor leader, Joe Esmonde, and he wrote a letter to Secretary of State Shemia Fagan requesting an audit of all Oregon agencies that deal with homelessness.
2. Senator Betsy Johnson resigns
Senator Betsy Johnson, a giant figure in the Oregon legislature since 2003, is resigning so she can focus on running for Governor full time. This was unexpected news to many in the Oregon politics world.
Her resignation will create a vacancy in a northwest Oregon senate district that Dems will struggle to keep in 2022 (GOP Rep. Suzanne Weber is already running). Johnson made clear that she does not believe that someone running for reelection should be appointed (Democrat Melissa Busch had already announced she’s running for the seat in ‘22; she is also seeking the appointment).
As a reminder of how this works: Democratic Party precinct committee people (PCPs) who live in the senate district will vote to nominate 3, 4, or 5 candidates to be considered for appointment. Those names will be sent to county commissioners from all of the counties in the district, who will then select an individual from the list.
Meanwhile, Nigel Jaquiss at WW wonders if Knute Buehler might help Johnson secure financial support from the holy grail of Oregon political donors: Nike founder Phil Knight (Buehler basically said yes without saying yes).
3. Almost drama-free special session ends (senator gets ejected from the chamber) with big investments; candidate news
Legislative News
Special session finishes with bipartisan votes; not much drama. $400 million in spending was allocated to a bipartisan array of priorities.
Here’s a tweet from Les Zaitz that sums up the major takeaway: “Rural Oregon often feels neglected by state powers. But Democrat-controlled #orleg Monday sent millions to rural areas with bipartisan ag relief, water help, and going after cartels in Southern Oregon. More like this possible?”
One very weird blip: Senator Dallas Heard was removed from the chamber for refusing to wear a mask after Senate President Peter Courtney offered him multiple opportunities to avoid the ejection.
Sen. Kayse Jama and Rep. Khanh Pham earn some national press from NBC News on Afghan resettlement.
A new report from The O shows that interest groups tried to influence redistricting process, but it’s unclear what the impact was.
Margaret Salazar, the head of Oregon Housing and Community Services, welcomes an audit of the agency following criticism
Governor Brown is standing by her and described her as “one of the most effective government leaders in the entire state,” according to OPB.
Rep. Lisa Reynolds will bring back a bill to restore voting rights to incarcerated Oregonians
Candidate News
Jessica George, former legislative assistant and wife of former Sen. Larry George, will complete the term of outgoing Rep. Bill Post, who is moving out of state.
What do Rep. Dan Rayfield, Sen. Sara Gelser, Rep. Julie Fahey, and Sen. James Manning have in common? None of them are running for congress. That leaves Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle and Andrew Kalloch (so far). The Capital Chronicle reports that Kalloch has only lived in the district since 2020. Rep. Marty Wilde and Coos County Commissioner Melissa Cribbins are still considering a run.
Huge new for Congressman Kurt Schrader: He has secured the endorsement of Planned Parenthood Advocates of Oregon. Meanwhile, Jamie McLeod Skinner has earned the support of the Working Families Party.
4. Portland City Commissioners in the news
Commissioner Jo Ann Hardesty is suing the city’s police union for $5 million for leaking her name in a mistaken identity case. In an unrelated suit, she is being sued by her bank for unpaid bills. Hardesty then defended her stewardship of public funds.
Commissioner Mingus Mapps has no association with People for Portland—but they like his proposals, highlighting them in advertisements.
“There is no connection between myself and my office and People for Portland. I haven’t spoken to anyone from the organization. I have not even seen a People for Portland ad,” Mapps told OPB this week. “I don’t have a TV.”
Tough headline from Willamette Week: “Portland’s Public Housing Authority Got 476 Emergency Housing Vouchers in June. It’s Used 15 of Them.”
5. COVID roars back; Omicron spreading like wildfire
COVID is back with a vengeance. That’s the take away from a recent press conference by Governor Kate Brown, Oregon health experts, and from newspaper headlines locally and across the country. Here’s what we know:
Health officials are predicting another major surge in Oregon thanks to the Omicron variant; modeling from OHSU predicts more hospitalizations (but shorter stays) than the peak of the Delta surge.
Oregon is expected to see at least an additional 3,000 hospitalizations next month.
COVID restrictions are back. Many holiday parties, sports and entertainment events, local gatherings are being cancelled or postponed.
No impact on schools (for now): In the Governor’s press conference, they shared that in-person schooling will remain (and is unlikely to contribute to spread).
New York state reported its highest single-day number of positive tests since the start of the pandemic.
Folks across the country from Florida to DC are reportedly waiting hours in line to get tested.
Bottom Line: As much as we want to put the pandemic behind us, COVID, once again, has other plans. There’s no question that the pandemic will be part of our lives at least heading into 2022—and a top-button issue for candidates of both parties. Meanwhile, it’s also clear that voters across the political spectrum are exhausted by pandemic whiplash.
One parting question: how are we this far into the pandemic and it’s still challenging and expensive to get reliable COVID tests across the country?
6. Minority Leader Tim Knopp joins The Bridge and talks his new role, Governor Brown’s approval ratings, and the kicker
Senator Tim Knopp is a long-time figure in Oregon GOP politics. Starting off his political career as an insurgent candidate, he quickly rose to the peak of GOP power, including serving as Majority Leader in the House and as the new Minority Leader in the Senate. We talk everything from redistricting and "the kicker" to why Governor Brown's approval ratings are so low—and if Knopp describes himself as a conservative or moderate.
This conversation teed up former podcast guest and conservative political consultant Reagan Knopp (Tim’s son) for this highly topical Twitter burn:
I am still recovering. Joking aside, if you want to better understand the kicker debate, read Reagan’s “The Case for the Kicker” and the Oregon Center for Public Policy’s news release “Forecast Shows It’s Time to be Bold on Kicker Reform.”
The episode also features some really interesting discussion on how Sen. Knopp survived in a district President Biden won by double figures—and the playbook that he thinks other GOP candidates can win with. Finally, and maybe most importantly, our own Alex Titus is forever banned from telling jokes on the podcast after another one falls flat.
7. News Roundup
One-day Fred Meyer strike ends with tentative deal.
The Newberg School District continues to face instability and disruption, as the Assistant Superintendent (the most senior leader following the superintendent’s firing) has left the district and the recall campaigns against the Board Chair and Vice Chair have qualified for a January ballot.
From The Oregonian: “Black children are twice as likely as white children to be in foster care. Native American children are even more disproportionately affected, at more than three times the rate for white children.” Read more.
Meet the University of Oregon’s new Head Football Coach (also, the Beavers lost their bowl game).
Mayor Ted Wheeler made some national headlines for taking a city council vote via video chat while driving.
Wild story of the week from OPB: “Environmental advocates file lawsuit against Oregon Justice Department over surveillance”
Illegal marijuana is causing major problems.
Thank you for reading.
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