The Liftoff: Will last-minute attacks defeat the frontrunners?
PLUS: Merkley and Wyden diverge on key confirmation vote; vicious attack ads in the GOP primary for Gov.; McLeod Skinner surging?; Bend mayor resigns; lowest primary turnout ever?; and more!
Welcome back to The Liftoff!
Tomorrow is election day—so today’s newsletter will catch you up on what you need to know (and what you should look for) as the primary election comes to an end.
1. Last-minute attacks disrupt congressional races across Oregon
CD6
The SuperPAC supporting Carrick Flynn, funded by a crypto billionaire, has gone negative: they are attacking Rep. Andrea Salinas as a “drug company lobbyist” in TV and internet advertisements and at least two direct mail pieces.
Salinas released her own direct-to-camera response video, saying: “Let me set the record straight: I have never worked on behalf of any pharmaceutical company.”
On the GOP side, a mail piece from “Take Back Oregon PAC” labels itself as a “2022 Republican Primary Voter Guide” and uses a flattering picture and description of top GOP fundraiser Mike Erickson and unflattering pictures/descriptions of his six primary opponents. For example, of Rep. Ron Noble it says: “Noble has consistently broken ranks with Republicans to join Oregon House Democrats in passing their agenda.”
CD5
The GOP primary in CD5 has turned negative, with Jimmy Crumpacker’s latest ad attacking his opponent Lori Chavez-DeRemer as “Liberal Lori” for being pro-choice and volunteering at Planned Parenthood (plus another ad calling her a “hypocritical liberal”).
Chavez-DeRemer hit back in a tweet, writing: “What does Jimmy Crumpacker believe? Beyond saying whatever he thinks he needs to say to get elected, we don’t know.” Chavez-DeRemer also received some air support from with a mid five-figure ad buy from Value In Electing Women PAC, according to a recent filing.
On the Democratic side: Is Jamie McLeod Skinner surging ahead of incumbent Congressman Kurt Schrader? The Cook Political Report has polling that shows her up by a narrow margin.
2. Will the frontrunners hang on in the primaries for Governor?
Bridget Barton released a vicious attack ad titled against the GOP frontrunner called “Christine Drazan is just too dangerous for our kids.”
In return, Drazan’s campaign alleged that a dark-money group supporting Barton may have violated federal law. Drazan released her own ad that directly refutes Barton’s attack ad.
Bob Tiernan has boosted his campaign with a last-minute loan of $200,000 (from his personal funds).
Will Mayor Stan Pulliam’s brazen attempt to “Trumpify” his campaign vault him ahead of his competitors?
No candidates in either primary are saving money for the general election as they spend all they can in the final days of the primary. Why does this matter? Betsy Johnson will start the general election with a roughly $6 million head start over the two party nominees in cash-on-hand.
On the Democratic side, former Speaker Tina Kotek has touted her track record as “proven and progressive”. Treasurer Tobias Read has framed himself as an “outsider” who will take Oregon in a “new direction”. Kotek has significant advantages with more money and more endorsements. On the other hand, the mood of the electorate may favor Read’s approach.
3. Under-the-radar: what else to watch for on election night
Here are a few of the questions and races we’ll be watching on election night:
Will this be the lowest-turnout primary in Oregon history?
Will we know the winners on election night? Because of a recent change that allows ballots postmarked on election day to be counted, it will take a bit longer to count all the votes.
Who will win: longtime incumbent Court of Appeals Judge Darleen Ortega, or challenger former Circuit Court Judge Vance Day? Why this race matters:
Ortega is “the first woman of color and the only Latina to serve on Oregon’s second highest court”
Day, labeled as a “disgraced” former judge by The Oregonian, was previously suspended for “making false statements”, though he says it was because he opposes same-sex marriage.
It’s not just candidates on the ballot: Fifteen school districts from all over Oregon will be asking voters to approve bonds and levies tomorrow. Read OPB’s review of the measures.
Get to know all seven candidates to be the next Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor and Industries. Only the top two candidates will advance to the general (unless one candidate miraculously gets over 50% of the vote). The three frontrunners are Christina Stephenson, former Rep. Cheri Helt, and Yamhill County Commissioner Casey Kulla. The race is nonpartisan, but Stephenson and Kulla are Dems and Helt is a Republican.
Most entertaining article of the week: WW’s “Mailer Awards” featuring floods, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and misleading claims.
Record campaign spending in…Umatilla County?
4. The Oregon Bridge: What to expect in the Oregon GOP primaries with Reagan Knopp
Political consultant and Oregon Catalyst editor Reagan Knopp joins the pod to discuss everything you need to know on the Republican side of the aisle heading into the 2022 primary election (don’t worry, we also cover some Democratic primaries).
The GOP has excellent pick up opportunities across the state and a strong slate of candidates in key races. But who will actually be on the ticket come November? Reagan provides analysis on key races for the GOP ranging from the races for governor, congress, and the legislature — including who’s up, who’s down, and why. Reagan, Alex, and Ben also discuss how they think the Supreme Court’s potential decision on Roe v. Wade will impact elections in Oregon (spoiler: they disagree).
5. Portland news: SuperPACs, a trash czar, and allegations of nepotism
AJ McCreary, challenger to Commissioner Dan Ryan, has used campaign funds to pay her 15-year-old son.
Mayor Ted Wheeler will appoint a “trash czar” to help clean up Portland.
Portland presents a case study on the limitations of campaign finance reform: if you limit contributions, “SuperPACs” (or the local equivalent) will fill the void—as they are doing for Vadim Mozyrsky and Commissioner Dan Ryan.
6. Signs of the times
This week in stories that capture the zeitgeist of the moment in Oregon politics:
“Everybody hates Portland” from OPB describes the abounding pessimism about Portland—and how it could impact incumbents up for reelection.
The a molotov cocktail was thrown at the office of Oregon Right to Life in Keizer. Meanwhile, hundreds of pro-choice protesters gathered in downtown Portland for a “Bans Off Our Bodies” rally.
Bend Mayor Sally Russell has resigned, saying: “I am exhausted.”
Gas prices have hit record highs across Oregon.
7. News Roundup: Fiascos, love letters, and government polluters
A special report from the Capital Chronicle: “Powerful port pollutes water for years with little state action”
More treatment providers have been approved for Measure 110 funding—but critics say the state is not moving with sufficient urgency to respond to the crisis.
The Newberg School Board (in another divided vote) has hired a new superintendent, Stephen Phillips. Phillips is currently under investigation and on paid leave as superintendent of the Jewell School District and he previously resigned as an administrator in the Beaverton School District after retweeting an “offensive remark about undocumented immigrants,” according to OPB.
Matt West, a Democratic candidate in CD6, has announced a drive to unionize semiconductor engineers at Intel.
“This bill is a fiasco.” That’s what Oregon Wild’s conservation director said about a bill introduced by Congressman Earl Blumenauer to protect (some of) the Mt. Hood wilderness.
Oregon’s ban on real estate “love letters” has been ruled unconstitutional by a federal judge.
Sen. Jeff Merkley votes “no”, Sen. Ron Wyden votes “yes” on another term for Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
PSU President Stephen Percy will retire at the end of the next academic year
Thank you for reading.
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About the Authors
Ben Bowman is the chair of the Tigard-Tualatin School Board and a Democratic candidate for Oregon House District 25 (Tigard and Beaverton). In his day job, he works for the Oregon Department of Education. Previously, he worked as a legislative aide for former Reps. Margaret Doherty and Val Hoyle. He also co-hosts The Oregon Bridge podcast. In the newsletter and podcast, he speaks only for himself.
Alex Titus is a small business owner and consultant to businesses, nonprofits, and associations. Previously, he served as an Advisor in the Trump Administration and as a Policy Advisor to President Trump’s Super PAC. His writing has appeared in National Review, Fox News, The Hill, RealClearPolitics, and other publications. He also co-hosts The Oregon Bridge podcast.