The Republicans: Can anyone win back the Governor’s office after a record-breaking three-decade dry spell?
Hope springs eternal in a rudderless Oregon GOP.
This is our early-summer analysis of the GOP primary for Oregon Governor. For our analysis of the Democratic primary, click here.
The Republicans: Can anyone win back the Governor’s office after a record-breaking three-decade dry spell?
The Art of the Possible: Republican governors in blue states have proven tremendously popular across the country. Govs. Charlie Baker in Massachusetts, Larry Hogan in Maryland, and Phil Scott in Vermont not only won upset victories, but they were all resoundingly re-elected, too. Republicans running in blue states have reason to hope.
But, but, but: Oregon’s been a difficult nut for the GOP to crack — Republicans haven’t won the governorship since 1982. Let’s dive into how the field is shaping up in 2022.
On the Republican side of the gubernatorial primary, the field is wide open: 2016 GOP gubernatorial nominee Dr. Bud Pierce, Jessica Gomez, Sandy Mayor Stan Pulliam, and Baker City Mayor Kerry McQuisten are all running. Sen. Dallas Heard and House GOP Leader Rep. Christine Drazan are both rumored to be considering it. None of the prospective candidates have a track record of winning competitive partisan races (with the arguable exception of Drazan in her role as caucus leader).
Of the four declared candidates, Pulliam and McQuisten have held elected office at the local level. Pulliam’s ascendance, including a prominent feature in a New York Times article about Oregon’s urban-rural divide, has been staked on his opposition to Governor Kate Brown’s response to COVID-19 restrictions. McQuisten seems to be banking on the same anti-Kate Brown lane.
Time will tell: Can a mayor of a town of around 10,000 residents really defeat the powerful Democratic Party campaign infrastructure in a state with over 4 million people? And will Gov. Brown’s pandemic response still be a salient issue in November of 2022?
Pierce has tried to run for Governor before -- spending $1.6 million of his own money in a losing effort to Brown. He calls himself a far better candidate this time. But how? And will it matter against a candidate with none of Brown’s baggage?
In her only attempt at public office, Gomez was trounced by Sen. Jeff Golden in 2018, losing by over ten points. She told Newsweek that she was a Democrat until 2017 -- then became a Republican "because it was becoming very apparent that Oregon's Democrat elected officials were becoming more and more unfriendly towards business." This is the same argument Republicans have been making (unsuccessfully) for decades in Oregon.
Conspicuously absent: none of the candidates seem to be claiming the populist, Trumpism lane — at least not yet.
Sam Carpenter’s (“Make Oregon Great Again”) huge defeat at the hands of Knute Buehler in the 2018 GOP primary coupled with Jimmy Crumpacker’s (“The Trumpbacker”) fourth-place finish behind three less-Trumpy candidates in the 2020 2nd Congressional District GOP primary might make this approach less appealing than you’d think, given Trump’s popularity among GOP primary voters.
Who isn’t running? We are unlikely to see any of the names that would have the strongest shot of reclaiming Mahonia Hall for the GOP: former Congressman Greg Walden, former Senator Gordon Smith, and Congressman Cliff Bentz — all of whom have won big races, none of whom seem to be interested in the slog of a statewide race in deep-blue Oregon. Of course, former Republican Rep. Dr. Knute Buehler said goodbye to the GOP.
So, how do you win a GOP primary in 2022? We asked Nick Prelosky of The Rational Republican podcast to weigh in:
“The Trump question is inevitable, but however a candidate or voters in the primary (or voters in the general) feel about him, there's a gaping vacuum of leadership in our party. The candidate who wins the primary for governor here in Oregon will not simply emulate the 45th president, and instead will be able to clearly articulate solutions to the issues we face here at home and demonstrate his or her own unique idea of leadership.”
Uphill Battle: The Oregon GOP has a disastrous track record of winning statewide office, and the Governor’s office in particular, since the departure of Vic Atiyeh in the 80s.
Interestingly, the track record is similar for both moderate and far-right conservatives in statewide races.
Dr. Knute Buehler in 2018, a pro-choice, pro-LGBTQ rights moderate, lost to Kate Brown by a little over 6 points
Dr. Bud Pierce, another moderate, lost to Brown by 7 in 2016
Rep. Dennis Richardson, a conservative legislator with right-wing social views, lost to John Kitzhaber in 2014 by 7
He did squeak by in a Secretary of State race two years later, a lonely sign of hope for the GOP.
Moderate (but controversy-ridden) Dr. Monica Wehby lost big to Sen. Jeff Merkley in 2012 by 18.8 points
Far-right, “QAnon”-aligned Republican Jo Rae Perkins actually lost to Merkley by fewer points in 2020, ~17.6 points
What will it take for the GOP to get back to Mahonia Hall?
A national midterm backlash (think “Tea Party in 2010” levels of backlash) against Joe Biden to depress Democratic turnout and bump GOP turnout (right now, this seems unlikely…but there’s plenty of time for that to change)
A weak Democratic nominee (still entirely possible!)
A lot of cash (if you were a national group, would you invest in the Oregon GOP?)
Plenty of luck.
Flashback: The closest that Oregon has come to those conditions being met was in 2010 when Gov. John Kitzhaber (in pursuit of his 3rd term) narrowly defeated Chris Dudley by less than 2 points.
Takeaway: Like snow in Portland in October — it’s very unlikely, but bound to happen at some point.
Will a third-party candidate complicate things?
Rumors of conservative Democratic Sen. Betsy Johnson running as an independent are flying around in political circles. Does anyone remember the 1990 Governor’s election?
With her ties to Timber Unity and her track record of stopping progressive priorities in the State Senate, even a run in the GOP primary is not implausible.
Thanks for reading! If you have story tips, feedback or thoughts, I would love to hear from you. Email me at: benjaminwbowman@gmail.com.