Watch these issues for early signs of how Gov.-Elect Kotek will govern

Transportation, health care and the budget were overshadowed by other issues in the campaign but will play a big role in whether the governor succeeds

Often, the issues that determine whether candidates are elected are not the same ones that determine whether they do a good job in office. That easily could be the case for winners of 2022 elections.

The 2022 midterms were driven by high-profile, emotional issues. In Oregon, homelessness and the related issue of housing affordability topped voters’ concerns, according to polls, followed by crime and inflation/the economy. Progress on homelessness will be essential for Gov.-Elect Tina Kotek, in part because of growing public frustration and in part because of the emphasis she placed on the issue. But, ultimately inflation is more a federal issue than a state one. And crime is an issue that almost always re-emerges during elections regardless of what polices were tried and whether they worked.

Here are three issues that received relatively little attention during the campaign but will challenge Kotek and the Legislature. None are on Kotek’s list of top priorities – homelessness, mental health/addiction treatment and schools – and probably shouldn’t be. But all three directly affect more Oregonians than the governor-elect’s priorities. How she and the Legislature handle these issues likely will influence how voters view them in the next election. (Gary Conkling examined three other issues yesterday. Click here to read his column.)

Transportation

The pandemic shifted the demand and expectations for mass transit in ways that aren’t likely to change soon. Meanwhile, the debate about the I-5 Columbia River Bridge is ramping up again and infrastructure-bill money is flowing into the economy. How did the pandemic, work-from-home and other factors change transportation and what policy adjustments need to be made? Those questions need to be answered almost immediately since work already has started on projects authorized and funded under pre-pandemic assumptions.

TriMet, to its credit, has attempted to imagine what post-pandemic transportation might look like. Its recommendations focus on changes and improvements to bus routes, which makes sense because of financial and infrastructure barriers to light-rail expansion.

But the most interesting part of TriMet’s report is its document on transit trends. Demand was declining before COVID19 and the pandemic further depressed demand in ways that will be difficult to overcome. This is significant and will require leaders to do something they often find difficult to do – admit that a government agency needs to downsize.

The answer to future transportation needs should include improved transit options – a combination of better roads, more efficient transit and safer pedestrian and cycling infrastructure. But better and more aren’t the same thing. All of us, including TriMet, ODOT and other government agencies, should embrace decreased demand. We should encourage businesses to offer work-from-home options. In fact, WFH incentives should be greater than incentives to use mass transit.

The budget

The 2022 elections brought divided government to Washington, D.C. and erased Democratic supermajorities in Oregon. The result will be high-stakes budget battles. How should Congress and the Legislature approach their budgets?

Gov.-Elect Tina Kotek inherits an unusual fiscal situation. Revenues are at record highs but could shrink because of uncertain economic conditions. That creates difficult political calculus, which means she’s destined to leave someone – and perhaps everyone – disappointed.

With inflation at the highest levels in more than 30 years, voters already are struggling with their personal budgets. Higher taxes likely will be difficult to sell, even in Oregon.

Also, without a Democratic supermajority, Kotek has little chance to secure legislative support to increase tax rates. She has a few other cards to play – letting tax credits expire or maybe even trying to change the kicker law to allow some of it to be designated for specific uses. But even those efforts will draw significant political opposition and perhaps legal challenges.

Kotek’s first budget proposal will be an early indication of how she plans to govern. Will she reach across the aisle for compromise? Will she take a pragmatic approach? Will she throw caution to the wind and push for higher taxes despite political and economic headwinds? Will she try to free up money for priority programs by reorganizing state government and cutting budgets of low-priority departments and projects?

Health care

It’s ironic that health care receded as an issue, if polls are to be believed, after the worst pandemic in a century. That’s in part because attention was focused on the specific issue of vaccines rather than the broader health-care system. Even if other issues are more front of mind for voters, the pandemic magnified already existing problems with health care, especially hospitals, that must be addressed. And no matter your position on the topic, vaccines are not the most important health care issue.

Much of the blame for health care failures in Oregon have been directed, with some justification, at outgoing Gov. Kate Brown and the Oregon Health Authority. With Kotek replacing Brown and appointing a new interim OHA director, those scapegoats will be gone. Yet, the challenges will remain. Will Kotek leave decisions to the new OHA director or be more hands-on than her predecessor?

Beyond the importance of health care, this issue will provide an early test of one of Kotek’s key campaign promises – to make government work better. Her moves during the transition period show that she’s serious about that promise, but it will take more than good intentions to fix a government bureaucracy as broken as Oregon’s.

Mark Hester is a retired journalist who work at The Oregonian for 20 years as a business editor, sports editor and editorial writer.