Election takeaways: Expect gridlock in Washington, partisanship in Salem and more weirdness in Portland

After much anticipation, Election 2022 did little to change the political dynamic though it did show that the quality of candidates matters

For those who were looking to the 2022 election to deliver change, whether it be a red wave or a more powerful Democratic majority, this week’s results were disappointing. Republicans emerged in a slightly better position, nationally and in Oregon, but not with enough power to do anything more than block some of the Democratic priorities.

In Oregon, Democrats’ loss of a supermajority in the Senate means they probably can’t raise taxes. Nationally, Republican control of the House means the next two years will be dominated by gridlock. Beyond these obvious short-term implications, here are some observations about Election 2022:

Expect Democratic governors for a long time

There is no path to electing a Republican governor in Oregon anytime soon. Republicans had a dream opportunity in this election cycle:

·      The incumbent Democrat was the most unpopular governor in the nation.

·      The economy was bad and getting worse.

·      Oregon and especially Portland had received an avalanche of negative national news coverage.

·      A well-known, well-financed Democratic legislator ran as an unaffiliated candidate.

·      Republicans nominated arguably their best possible candidate, House Minority Leader Christine Drazan.

In the end, Drazan lost by a margin similar to the last two gubernatorial races that did not have an incumbent on the ballot. (Because she ascended to the governor’s office without an election after John Kitzhaber resigned, Kate Brown was an incumbent both times she ran.) Kevin Mannix, Chris Dudley and Christine Drazan had significant differences as candidates and ran in different political contexts, but the end result was similar.

My theory for the similar results in different circumstances: There aren’t many persuadable votes in Oregon. Most voters are locked into their ideological or tribal identities before the candidates are even selected.

If there is going to be significant change in Oregon, it will need to occur via Democratic primaries. A start would be for someone who wants change – maybe a billionaire who grew up in Oregon, founded a Fortune 500 company and has a history of investing generously in politics – to fund an aggressive campaign to encourage all unaffiliated voters to register as Democrats and vote in the primary. Then, fund moderate Democrats. The return on the dollar couldn’t be worse than the money spent supporting Betsy Johnson and Christine Drazan.

Could Portland get even worse?

Portland approved a new form of government. A change was needed. Portland was the only major U.S. city using the archaic commission form of government, which featured a weak mayor and commissioners who often functioned more as adversaries than allies. The result was predictable: gridlock, inefficient government and general chaos. But, speaking of chaos, the new charter creates a government that could be even worse – something I once thought was impossible.

With multi-member districts and a version of ranked-choice-voting that could see some commissioners elected with as little as 25 percent of the vote, special interests likely will become even more influential than they are now. Longtime Oregon political reporter Jeff Mapes pointed out one likely result: “Jo Ann Hardesty lost her Portland council seat, but she’s a lock to get it back in 2 years under the new governing system. She fits the new format, which I think will reward well-known figures with a passionate fan base.”

Candidate quality matters in non-statewide races

Though Republicans face insurmountable obstacles to electing a governor or U.S. Senator in Oregon, success is possible in district races with the right candidate. Or it might be more accurate to say success is possible if Democrats nominate the wrong candidate.

The fifth congressional district illustrates the importance of candidates. Though we might eat Thanksgiving leftovers before we know final results due to the snail-like approach Oregon takes to vote counting, Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer has a big enough lead to lead some national news outlets to label the race as likely Republican – which matches expectations before vote-counting started.

Had the Democrats nominated incumbent Kurt Schrader, the race probably wouldn’t be in doubt. Democrats likely would have held onto the seat. Instead, upset with Schrader for occasionally straying from the party agenda, primary voters nominated the much more liberal and much less known Jamie McLeod-Skinner. Chavez-DeRemer was a credible candidate, but as a former small-town mayor with low name recognition herself she could not be described as an exceptional candidate. Her strong performance likely has more to do with McLeod-Skinner’s weaknesses than her strengths.

This of course is not just a Democratic problem. Nationally, Republicans likely lost more candidates because they nominated candidates from the edge of their party than Democrats did.

Don’t expect much compromise in Salem

Nothing in Governor-Elect Tina Kotek’s past suggests she is a compromiser. In addition, the three highest profile moderates in the Democratic Party – Senate President Peter Courtney and Senators Mark Hass and Betsy Johnson – have left the Senate, either to retire or unsuccessfully seek a higher office, over the past two years. Former moderate gubernatorial nominee Knute Buehler has left the party. There are no influential moderates anywhere near the levers of power. That’s bad news for anyone who wants the Legislature to dial back partisanship.

To check on the most recent vote count,  click here.

To read Gary Conkling’s observations on Election 2022, click here.

Mark Hester is a retired journalist who worked at The Oregonian for 20 years in positions that included business editor, sports editor and editorial writer.