I'd be wary of demographic determinism. Ask John Judis and Ruy Teixeira how their prediction of an "Emerging Democratic Majority" on the national level turned out since 2002. I agree Oregon will continue to benefit from in-migration of well-educated young people and families, and that the state will become less white as well. But as Judis and Texiera learned, groups defined by race or ethnicity can change in their political views as their socio-economic status changes over time. There are known unknowns to consider. Granted, education may be a better, more constant predictor of voting patterns. But we have to allow for change both in the attitudes of demographic groups and in the behavior of political parties. I'm less certain that Democratic dominance will continue as Jim predicts.
I'd be wary of demographic determinism. Ask John Judis and Ruy Teixeira how their prediction of an "Emerging Democratic Majority" on the national level turned out since 2002. I agree Oregon will continue to benefit from in-migration of well-educated young people and families, and that the state will become less white as well. But as Judis and Texiera learned, groups defined by race or ethnicity can change in their political views as their socio-economic status changes over time. There are known unknowns to consider. Granted, education may be a better, more constant predictor of voting patterns. But we have to allow for change both in the attitudes of demographic groups and in the behavior of political parties. I'm less certain that Democratic dominance will continue as Jim predicts.