The Liftoff: Everything you need to know about the election
PLUS: Nearly a best-case scenario for Dems; one of Oregon's top political donors implodes; Kotek names transition leader; Shemia Fagan joins the podcast; and more!
Welcome back to The Liftoff! First, a happy belated Veterans Day to all veterans and their families. Thank you for your service and dedication to our country.
Election season is finally over—and there’s a lot to unpack!
1. Close to best case scenario for Oregon Democrats
After months of optimism from the GOP, Oregon’s “blue wall” once again dashed the hopes of Republicans. Alex Titus forecasted this possibility a couple of weeks ago in The Liftoff.
Tina Kotek has been elected governor.
Democrats will likely maintain solid majorities in the House (~35) and Senate (~17) after winning the majority of swing seats.
Val Hoyle and Andrea Salinas will be heading to Congress.
Christina Stephenson will be the next Labor Commissioner.
Republicans, however, did not come up empty.
Lori Chavez DeRemer defeated Jamie McLeod Skinner, making her the second Republican in Oregon’s congressional delegation.
Republicans were also relatively successful at winning county commission seats in populous counties.
Republicans won enough legislative seats to prevent Democratic supermajorities in both chambers—meaning no new tax votes without bipartisan support.
What about non-affiliated candidates?
Less than 9% of the vote for Betsy Johnson for Governor.
About 10% of the vote for Rich Vial in Senate District 18.
As of 11/13, all four ballot measures were passing:
The constitutional amendment on affordable healthcare access was leading by about 1 point.
The measure removing slavery from the constitution was passing by about 11 points.
The measure preventing legislative walkouts was passing by a whopping 36 points.
Measure 114, the firearm regulation measure, was leading by just over 1 point. At least three county sheriffs have said they will not enforce some or all of the new law.
2. What’s next? A preview of governance in 2023
On November 11, Christine Drazan offered a gracious concession. Drazan spoke with Tina Kotek and called her the “governor-elect” of the state.
Following her victory, Kotek announced that her former chief of staff Tim Inman will lead her transition team. Inman will temporarily move to part-time at the University of Oregon, where he serves as secretary of the board of trustees. Expect more transition announcements in the weeks to come as the Governor-elect and her team make key staffing, agency, and policy decisions.
What will Kotek focus on as Governor? According to a post-victory social media post:
Declare a homelessness state of emergency and work to help Oregonians move off the streets.
Expand access to mental health & addiction treatment services.
Work to bridge the divisions in our state.
In the state legislature, it was a great night for Speaker Dan Rayfield and Majority Leader Julie Fahey. While many of the margins remain narrow, Democrats in the House over-performed the expectations of many political observers and lobbyists.
On the Senate side, Democrats will be back with the majority—but Senate President Peter Courtney will not be back after 20 years in the role. Some rumored to be considering a bid to replace him include: Majority Leader Rob Wagner, Sen. James Manning, Sen. Kathleen Taylor, Sen. Elizabeth Steiner Hayward, and Sen. Floyd Prozanski.
3. Other highlights from the election
Rene Gonzalez defeated Commissioner Jo Ann Hardesty by a narrower-than-expected 6 points.
The Portland charter reform measure passed by a wide margin.
Jessica Vega Pederson defeated Sharon Meieran for Multnomah County Commission Chair.
Clackamas County Clerk Sherry Hall, who has been embroiled in numerous controversies and high-profile mistakes for years, was decisively defeated by Catherine McMullen.
7 out of 10 education funding ballot measures (local bonds and levies) passed on election night. Rogue River, Sheridan, and Parkrose all had measures fail.
Rep. Marty Wilde came up short in his bid to unseat Circuit Court Judge Beatrice Grace.
Erious Johnson, a circuit court judge in Salem appointed by Gov. Kate Brown, was defeated by Amy Queen.
The ballot measure that would have extended voting rights to non-citizens in Multnomah County failed.
The voters of Morrow and Wheeler Counties voted in favor of “Greater Idaho” ballot measures.
Dozens of cities and counties, mostly in rural areas, voted to ban psilocybin therapy.
Looking ahead to the 2023 May elections: According to a national survey, only 38% of school board members want to run for reelection.
4. Secretary of State Shemia Fagan joins the Oregon Bridge to discuss election integrity and how Oregon counts ballots
This week, we are excited to have Oregon Secretary of State Shemia Fagan as our guest. We all knew that there were going to be many close races this election—from the top of the ticket on down, so we thought it was important for our listeners to understand how Oregon's election system works.
In this episode, Secretary Fagan explains her role and the protocols that county elections follow to ensure ballots are counted accurately. We also discuss what she sees as the greatest threat to election integrity in Oregon, how the roles of the Oregon Secretary of State vary from the roles in other states, how the audit function of her office works, and her advice for how to make state government work better.
Secretary Fagan also gives a tip for how to manage the anxiety of election night—you'll want to keep this in mind for next cycle!
5. The Way: Conkling on how Democrats should govern; Hester on election trends
Check out the most recent columns from Oregon Way contributors Gary Conkling and Mark Hester. Conkling urges Democrats to govern like “the red wave hit Oregon” and Hester gives a break-down of results and how things will shape up for Oregon and the nation.
6. Political donor behind Carrick Flynn implodes
Crypto Madness: One of Oregon’s top political donors from the last election cycle imploded in an epic fashion late last week in a story that will almost certainly be made into a book and film.
Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the founder of popular crypto exchange FTX and crypto trading firm Alameda Research, saw his net worth implode in just a few days due to a liquidity crisis that appears to have stemmed from improper use of his customer’s funds.
FTX customers were halted from making withdrawals and their money appears to be all but gone as FTX announced itself bankrupt.
Before its rapid demise, FTX was one of the best known crypto exchanges in the world. They owned the naming rights of the Miami Heat’s stadium, they counted NFL quarterback Tom Brady as a major investor, and they purchased a primetime Super Bowl advertisement.
SBF has been removed from the Forbes Billionaires List and major investors have written their investment down to zero. Regulators, including the SEC, are also beginning to circle in.
You likely remember SBF as the man who bankrolled the campaign of pandemic researcher and Democratic congressional candidate Carrick Flynn to the tune of over $11 million—the largest outside spend on a congressional primary in 2022. Flynn ended up losing in the Democratic primary to Rep. Andreas Salinas.
Another bit of news from the FTX fall out appears to be a staff connection between SBF and Flynn’s congressional campaign. Puck News reporter Teddy Schleifer reported a resignation letter from the FTX Future Fund team, which led philanthropy for SBF and the company. Avital Balwit, Flynn’s campaign manager, appears to be on the list of signatories of the letter.
7. Majority of Oregonians are worried about their personal financial situation
Thanks to our friends at the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center for this week’s graphic!
8. News Roundup: Phil Knight’s disappointment
Check out this Veteran’s Day piece from the Bend Bulletin about Bend resident Derek Abbey who works with the US military to help bring home the remains of those MIA.
Phil Knight gave an interview on CNBC about the election and expressing disappointment in the results. Knight spent millions opposing Kotek and in support of Republican state legislators.
Sad Sports Update: The Huskies sent the Ducks packing in a loss that has killed any chance for Oregon to make it to the NCAA Football Playoffs.
Thank you for reading.
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About the Authors
Ben Bowman is the chair of the Tigard-Tualatin School Board and state representative-elect for Oregon House District 25 (Tigard and Beaverton). In his day job, he works as an administrator for a public school district. Previously, he worked as a legislative aide for former Reps. Margaret Doherty and Val Hoyle. He also co-hosts The Oregon Bridge podcast. In the newsletter and podcast, he speaks only for himself.
Alex Titus is a small business owner and consultant to businesses, nonprofits, and associations. Previously, he served as an Advisor in the Trump Administration and as a Policy Advisor to President Trump’s Super PAC. His writing has appeared in National Review, Fox News, The Hill, RealClearPolitics, and other publications.