The Liftoff: Serious "red wave" warning signs for Oregon Democrats
The Liftoff: Serious "red wave" warning signs for Oregon Democrats
PLUS: The NYT article everyone is talking about; two new senate candidates emerge; more reverberations from the end of Roe; Portland charter reform in jeopardy; and more!
Welcome back to The Liftoff!
Happy 4th of July! This has been one of my favorite holidays since I was a kid. Every year, my grandma wore her red, white, and blue windbreaker while we sat on the sidewalk and lit off a Costco pack of fireworks.
This year, Alex and I both agree on an Independence Day recommendation for you: go see Top Gun: Maverick in theaters. It’s fun. It’s patriotic. It’s optimistic. There’s courage, tradition, and diversity. As our friends at The Realignment said, “The only thing America agrees on is that Top Gun: Maverick is awesome.”
However you celebrate, we hope you enjoy the holiday weekend.
Ben & Alex
1. The New York Times article everyone in Oregon politics is talking about
The New York Times ran an article about the race for governor that’s has the Oregon politics world buzzing. The piece cites “Biden, gas prices, and crime” as evidence that the race is “no sure thing” for Democrats. Some highlights:
It compares Tina Kotek to Hillary Clinton, saying: “She sounded an awful lot like another well-credentialed Democrat who seemed to be in a race the party couldn’t lose.”
On GOP nominee Christine Drazan, it says: “Some Republicans in Washington, D.C., believe Drazan has a better shot of winning than their candidates in traditional battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania do.”
From Betsy Johnson, a classically on-brand quote (which has generated its own set of headlines): “You can see the deterioration of the beautiful City of Roses, now the city of roaches.”
This garnered a rebuke from Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler, saying: “It's easy to articulate the challenges Portland is facing. We need a governor who will partner with us to help find solutions and fight for Portland—not disparage and write us off.”
2. Warning signs of a red wave hitting Oregon?
In the 5th Congressional District, a new poll shows Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) ahead by one point (within the margin of error) over Jamie McLeod Skinner (D). The survey respondents indicated they supported Joe Biden by a nine-point margin in 2020—indicating a significant shift in voter attitudes. The political forecasting site 538 puts Chavez-DeRemer’s chance of winning at nearly 73%, as of July 3. This is a boon for Oregon Republicans and virtually guarantees that Chavez-DeRemer will attract major support from the national level.
But, there is some good news for Democrats, too: McLeod-Skinner won the endorsement of Senators Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley. Usually, this would be insignificant for a Democratic nominee—but after a bruising but ultimately successful primary challenge of an incumbent congressman (Kurt Schrader), it shows that Democratic leaders will fully circle the wagon behind the party’s nominee.
In bad news for Republicans, the Chair of the Oregon Republican Party has resigned (again). A few months after Sen. Dallas Heard resigned from the role, his successor, Herman Baertschiger, has resigned as well. This kind of organizational shakeup can seriously impact a state party’s ability to support their candidates.
In other federal news, Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL) allegedly asked former President Donald Trump for presidential pardons for any member of Congress who voted to reject any states’ electoral college votes—including Rep. Cliff Bentz. Bentz says he did not ask for the pardon and has never spoken to Rep. Brooks.
3. Two new state senate candidates emerge (and other legislative news)
Must-read profile of the week: five Vietnamese Americans, all children of refugees, will be Democratic nominees for the Oregon House: Rep. Khanh Pham, Daniel Nguyen, Thuy Tran, Hoa Nguyen, and Hai Pham. All are expected to win in safely Democratic districts, meaning Oregon will have “the largest Vietnamese American representation of any state legislature in the nation.”
Former state representative Rich Vial announced he is running for Senate District 18 (Aloha, parts of Beaverton and Hillsboro) as an independent. The Democratic nominee is Rep. Wlnsvey Campos and the Republican nominee is Kimberly Rice.
Rich Walsh will be the Democratic nominee in Senate District 11 (Keizer, Woodburn). In the appointment to replace Woodburn Mayor Eric Swenson, Walsh earned 29 votes, compared to just 11 for Rep. Teresa Alonso Leon and zero for Anthony Rosilez.
Rep. Karin Power, who is not running for reelection, has been hired as the next leader of Business for a Better Portland. Stay tuned: Power is next week’s guest on The Oregon Bridge podcast.
Rep. Greg Smith is ending his role as the economic development director for Malheur County.
4. Can Emerson Levy flip another central Oregon seat blue?
Emerson Levy is the Democratic nominee for the new House District 53 (Bend and Redmond) in Central Oregon—which could be one of the closest legislative races in the state. Levy ran for the seat in 2020 against Jack Zika, losing by about 14 points. In 2020, the district was R+6—but after redistricting, it's D+4—and Zika isn't running for re-election (Republicans nominated Michael Sipe).
Levy is an attorney, mom, and community leader in Bend. She is active with the Deschutes County Democratic Party, serving as Vice Chair, and has volunteered on the Oregon Task Force for School Safety. She has experience working on the legal side of complex clean energy deals. In this episode, we talk about her views on school safety (and potential gun laws), the politics of central Oregon and how they differ from the metro area, the sky-high cost of housing, and how Oregon can lead the country on clean energy.
5. The end of Roe continues to reverberate
The leader of Oregon Right to Life, the state’s largest pro-life group, identified two priorities for the coming year in a WW interview: eliminating taxpayer funding for abortions and restricting abortions in the later weeks of pregnancy. The group will focus on legislative (and potentially executive branch) advocacy, with no plans for a ballot measure or legal challenge in Oregon.
The end of Roe (and Justice Clarence Thomas’ open desire to reconsider cases involving same-sex marriage, contraception, and sodomy laws) has created fear and uncertainty in the LGBTQ+ community in Oregon. Because U.S. District Court Judge Michael McShane struck down Oregon’s constitutional ban on same-sex marriage before a ballot measure to repeal the ban could be voted, the language still exists in the Oregon constitution (it’s just unenforceable—for now).
Following the court’s decision, Senators Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley are asking the Biden Administration to “increase access to abortion pills and help patients obtain abortions in other states”. Governor Kate Brown along with ten other governors also met with President Biden this week to discuss abortion.
When it comes to protecting access to abortion, Oregon has a tool that many other states don’t: a health care merger law. According to Rep. Andrea Salinas (via the Lund Report), the law “requires the state to consider whether services would be reduced when deciding whether or not to approve a merger, acquisition or consolidation among health care providers”. Essentially, if a health care merger would reduce access to abortion, it could be denied by the state. Leaders in Washington State are hoping to follow Oregon’s lead.
Oregon has one abortion clinic east of the Cascades. Given the so-called “trigger laws” in Idaho (and many other states), they are expecting a significant increase in demand for services.
6. Portland metro news: Is charter reform in jeopardy?
Mayor Ted Wheeler and Commissioner Mingus Mapps have expressed deep concerns with proposed changes to the city charter, saying the proposal reduces accountability. Additionally, some skeptics claim the proposal may violate Oregon’s “single subject rule” for initiative petitions. The Portland Business Alliance is considering a legal challenge.
Mapps has a political action committee, called Ulysses PAC, that will be opposing the charter reform on the ballot this November, saying that while he supports some aspects of the proposal, he believes others will make city government “less functional”. Vadim Mozyrsky, who unsuccessfully sought a seat on the council, will also be creating a PAC (with two former Bud Clark staffers) to oppose the measure. Everyone seems to agree that the current commission form of government is antiquated, but they can’t agree on a solution.
Mayor Wheeler has been rapidly accelerating his use of emergency powers to implement new policies and programs in Portland. The latest example is an emergency declaration to try to curb gun violence over the summer.
In the race for Multnomah County Chair, supporters of Commissioner Sharon Meieran are urging Pro-Choice Oregon to consider a dual endorsement after the organization chose to support Commissioner Jessica Vega Pederson.
The new minimum wage in the Portland area is $14.75—but it may jump to $16 next year if inflation keeps up. Mike Rogoway from The O explains why.
7. Oregonians’ perception of wildfire risk
Thanks to our friends at the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center, which makes clear that Oregonians believe that wildfires are a serious threat to their neighbors around the state.
8. News roundup: Nike, giant insects, and gun control
End of an Era: CAUSA, an immigrant advocacy organization that has worked in Oregon for over 27 years, will be dissolving. Here is part of their statement announcing the decision: “After more than two years of fundraising difficulties and unprecedented turnover among staff and leadership, the organization has reached a point where it will begin spending down its financial reserves to cover expenses.”
An impressive achievement: the interfaith nonprofit “Lift Every Voice Oregon” has collected enough signatures for their gun violence prevention measures to appear on the ballot in November (assuming all signatures are valid). The campaign is expected to draw significant opposition—but polling suggests the majority of Oregonians support more restrictions on gun ownership.
An Oregon City man filed to run for “mirror” of Oregon City (he meant “mayor”)—and now a judge will determine whether or not he can appear on the ballot.
Morrow County Administrator Darrell Green was fired on a 2-1 vote. The two county commissioners who voted for the termination did not give a reason and Green says he does not know what led to the decision.
From OPB: “80 people in Oregon’s federal prison go on hunger strike over conditions”
In Nike’s fourth quarter earnings report, the company cited massive increases in shipping costs and long delays as limiting their sales and profit—but still exceeded revenue and profitability expectations.
No Thank You: “Biblical” insects are causing havoc for Oregon’s farmers.
From OPB: “Conservationists call for action on Pacific Northwest wolf poaching”
Thank you for reading.
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About the Authors
Ben Bowman is the chair of the Tigard-Tualatin School Board and a Democratic candidate for Oregon House District 25 (Tigard and Beaverton). In his day job, he works for the Oregon Department of Education. Previously, he worked as a legislative aide for former Reps. Margaret Doherty and Val Hoyle. He also co-hosts The Oregon Bridge podcast. In the newsletter and podcast, he speaks only for himself.
Alex Titus is a small business owner and consultant to businesses, nonprofits, and associations. Previously, he served as an Advisor in the Trump Administration and as a Policy Advisor to President Trump’s Super PAC. His writing has appeared in National Review, Fox News, The Hill, RealClearPolitics, and other publications. He also co-hosts The Oregon Bridge podcast.
To call Betsy Johnson as leading a split in the Democratic Party is to say that the author knows nothing about Oregon, Betsy, or Oregon Democrats. Her only claim to staying a Democrat here is she is pro-choice. Otherwise she is a traditional Republican, just not a Trumper. I still think she will end up pulling in more business Republicans than Democratic votes. She is starting out a distant 3rd after a lot of TV ads. 3rd party, independent candidates traditionally hit their high water mark early on and lose votes as voters get serious about who can win.
NYTIMED article as many media likes to accentuate division, or in this case radical change. Did you know many Eastern Oregonians want to secede from Oregon and join Idaho? Wow. Not a new phenomenon. Many SW Oregonians and Northern Califonians want to secede and form their own state. Thus writer doesn't realize that the urban/rural divide in Oregon is as old as the hills. Perhaps some independent/low info voters will swing from Den to GOP, or stay home. That could change the political landscape