The Liftoff: Will the Senate Republican walkout ever end?
PLUS: Kurt Schrader's new job; Ted Wheeler and Mingus Mapps clash at Portland council; an "unaccountable" state agency; $2 billion in new revenue; who saved Oregon's motto; and more!
Welcome back to the The Liftoff! As we say every week: Thank you! Our readership continues to grow, and we could not do this work without your support. This month was our biggest month yet—with more eyes on The Liftoff than ever before.
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1. Oregon Senate mired in gridlock; eye-popping new revenue forecast means $2 billion to spend
It was another big week in Salem. The Senate is still at a standstill with Republicans boycotting, and no end in sight. We also learned last week that Oregon’s tax revenues significantly outpaced state economists’ predictions. That means legislators have almost $2 billion more than expected to spend in the next six weeks.
As a primer to the Republican drama: Voters last year passed Measure 113, amending the state constitution so a lawmaker with 10 or more unexcused absences in one legislative session would be ineligible to run in the next election. Clearly it has failed to achieve its goal of preventing walkouts.
So the biggest questions heading into this week are:
Will Senate Republicans show up before the end of session?
How will the legislature spend this extra $2 billion?
Still confused about why Senate Republicans are staging this walkout in light of the new law? OPB looks at what this means. OPB’s Politics Now podcast from Friday afternoon also covers the controversy—worth a listen!
As Gary Warner reported on Friday, 1/3 of all Oregon senators are now ineligible for another term following the 13th day of a Republican walkout in the Senate. Those senators now ineligible to run again include:
Sen. Tim Knopp of Bend
Sen. Bill Hansell of Athena
Sen. Lynn Findley of Vale
Sen. Suzanne Weber of Tillamook
Sen. Kim Thatcher of Keizer
Sen. Art Robinson of Cave Junction
Sen. Dennis Linthicum of Klamath Falls
Sen. Daniel Bonham of The Dalles
Sen. Cedric Hayden of Roseburg
Sen. Brian Boquist of Dallas
In related news from the Capital Chronicle: “Complaint from progressive group alleges PAC for Republican senators isn’t reporting campaign contributions in time”
Ben Botkin with the Capital Chronicle looks at which bills (including GOP ones) are jeopardized right now because of the walkout. “The walkout jeopardizes legislative priorities for everyone from Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek to rank-and-file Republican senators who are participating in the boycott…They include proposals to fund a veterans home in Roseburg, allow more Oregonians to pump their own gas and start a pilot program to help homeless students.”
On Wednesday, the state’s budget forecast showed Oregon has $1.9 billion more in tax dollars to spend over the next two years than originally predicted.
A reminder from veteran journalist Gary Warner: Oregon operates on two-year budget cycles. The current budget ends June 30. Legislators have passed a resolution to keep state government operating until September if they can’t finish the budget before then.
More kicker headlines:
This huge windfall will likely trigger a $5.5 billion “kicker” tax rebate back to Oregonians. This is up from a predicted kicker of $3.9 billion from the forecast just three months ago.
From Oregon Center for Public Policy: “We estimate, based on Oregon Department of Revenue data, that the richest 100 Oregonians will get kicker rebates averaging more than $800,000.”
The Oregonian looked at some of the education advocates that are clamoring for a bigger share of the budget.
2. Primary Election Round-up
Here are some of the headlines from Tuesday’s primary election. Last week we shared for our paid subscribers some of the key races we were watching around the state.
Multnomah County residents decisively voted down a measure to fund eviction lawyers, reports The Oregonian.
Julia Brim-Edwards won the Multnomah County Board of Commissioners seat. Here is The Oregonian’s story calling the decisive win.
Conservative school board candidates are losing in Newberg and North Clackamas, leading in Crook County, reports OPB.
Voters have mixed responses to Portland area taxes to pay for police, fire, schools, and more, reports The Oregonian.
Oregon City School Board swings back progressive, reports The Oregon City News.
Voters voted on bonds and levies for 16 school districts across Oregon. Early returns showed strong support for local levies to pay for staff, while only half of districts with bonds on the ballot were successful in passing them, reports OPB.
West Linn voters choose 23-year-old Rory Bialostosky as mayor.
Ashland Food and Beverage Tax vote too close to call, final results may take weeks, reports Jefferson Public Radio.
3. The role of effective communication in Oregon politics with Kristina Edmunson
Kristina Edmunson is a seasoned communications professional with a wealth of experience in the field. She is best known for her role as the former Communications Director for Oregon's Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum. Throughout her tenure, Kristina demonstrated exceptional skills in strategic communication, media relations, and public affairs, contributing significantly to the successful implementation of the Attorney General's agenda.
With a keen understanding of the complexities of legal matters and their impact on communities, Kristina played a pivotal role in the Attorney General's office. Her expertise in crafting clear and compelling messaging helped to effectively communicate the office's initiatives, priorities, and accomplishments to various stakeholders, including the public, media outlets, and government agencies. During her time as Communications Director, Kristina demonstrated a commitment to transparency and accountability.
4. Sponsored Message from Harrang Long P.C.: Harrang Long’s Government Ethics Practice
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5. Kotek dismisses “placeholder” idea for next Secretary of State (and more politics news)
Gov. Tina Kotek told reporters on Wednesday that she has not picked Oregon’s next Secretary of State. According to The Oregonian, the Governor said, “I haven’t talked to anyone yet. I have no list.” She is not committed to putting a “placeholder” in the job.
Julia Shumway with the Capital Chronicle interviewed Rep. Charlie Conrad, a freshman from rural Lane County, who changed his mind to vote for HB 2002 (a bill about access to abortion and gender-affirming care) after originally voting “no” in committee.
Rep. Conrad told Shumway that he didn’t have personal experience with gender-affirming care, “so he decided to learn what he could. He reached out to health care providers, who helped him connect with parents of trans kids and learn more about what kind of care is provided for minors. And nearly a month later, when Conrad got his next chance to vote on House Bill 2002 on the House floor, he joined every Democrat in voting for it while every other Republican voted no.”
Kurt Schrader has a new job: lobbyist for a firm that does work for major pharmaceutical companies, according to WW.
Recommended Reading: Which agency did Willamette Week call “shrouded in obscurity, often unaccountable, largely ignored by the Legislature and governor’s office, and apparently in thrall to the industry it regulates”? Hint: no, it’s not the Oregon Liquor and Cannabis Commission.
The Oregon Elections Division will fine the Democratic Party of Oregon $15,000 and ask Oregon Attorney General Rosenblum to investigate the cryptocurrency executive who gave the party $500,000 last year under a false name. This followed a seven-month investigation into the $500,000 contribution made by Nishad Singh, an executive at the cryptocurrency exchange FTX, reports the Capital Chronicle.
From the Oregonian: “Gov. Tina Kotek knew of Secretary of State Shemia Fagan’s pot contract a week before it was made public”
From Willamette Week: “Former Oregon Secretary of State Shemia Fagan ignored repeated advice that she not accept a contract with the founders of an embattled cannabis dispensary company that would ultimately lead to her resignation, says Fagan’s interim replacement, Cheryl Myers.”
Gov. Kotek will not allow businesses that haven’t paid their taxes to obtain or renew licenses to sell marijuana. State data indicates that 9.3% of Oregon marijuana businesses were delinquent on their taxes last year, triple the non-compliance rate for other state tax programs.
Check out the new poll that DHM Research conducted for Oregon Business and Industry (OBI). Here’s their summary: Oregonians are “pessimistic about state's direction, increasingly worried about homelessness and crime and overwhelmingly opposed to tax increases.”
6. Mingus Mapps and Ted Wheeler clash (and other Portland news)
Commissioner Mingus Mapps and Mayor Ted Wheeler clashed at a recent Portland City Council meeting over Wheeler’s proposed “tax freeze”, which would impact Mapps’ bureaus. Here’s a quote from Mapps, courtesy of BikePortland.org:
“The [transportation] bureau is on life support, and we are pulling the plug today. I have not seen something like this in an urban setting. Ever. This is a truly remarkable moment.”
Last weekend eight people died of overdoses with six of those being from fentanyl. The Portland Police Bureau released new data Tuesday showing that overdose deaths in Portland have risen nearly 50% this year. Catalina Gaitán from The O has a well-written piece on the crisis.
Mayor Ted Wheeler has proposed a 8am - 8pm camping ban on city property, writes Willamette Week. The proposal is expected to be voted on before the end of the month.
From Willamette Week: A case study in why it’s hard to build affordable housing in Portland, including this quote: “I would rather kick myself in the balls 100 times than do this again.”
Portland saw its population shrink according to the most recent census estimate. The city saw more than 10,000 people leave (2.8% of the population).
7. The Way: Measure 110 in the spotlight
Oregon Way contributors Gary Conkling and Mark Hester have two pieces for you this week focusing on Measure 110. Conkling argues that there’s no turning back on a treatment-first approach and Hester has ideas on better approaches for accomplishing Measure 110’s goals. What are your thoughts on Measure 110? Sound off in the comments!
8. News Roundup: Barbara Roberts saved Oregon’s motto
A fun piece from the Oregonian: “If it weren’t for Barbara Roberts, the first woman elected as Oregon governor, the state’s motto would still be ‘The Union’”
From the Oregonian: “Emerge Oregon, the powerful political network for Democratic women that nurtured Shemia Fagan, reckons with her downfall”
Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer is one of two dozen Republicans who sent money back to the U.S. Marshals Service after the U.S. DOJ urged politicians to return contributions from disgraced FTX executive Sam Bankman-Fried, reports Willamette Week.
A semi-truck driver killed seven on I-5 in a deadly accident. The man was later charged with seven counts of manslaughter after being identified as under the influence.
Halfway through May, most major water basins in Oregon continue to have above-average mountain snowpack, though some areas are melting at a record pace following the unseasonably warm weather, writes The Capital Press.
Thank you for reading!
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About the Authors
Ben Bowman is the state representative for Oregon House District 25 (Tigard, Metzger, and South Beaverton) and a member of the Tigard-Tualatin School Board. In his day job, he works as an administrator for a public school district. Previously, he worked as a legislative aide for former Reps. Margaret Doherty and Val Hoyle. He also co-hosts The Oregon Bridge podcast. In the newsletter and podcast, he speaks only for himself.
Alex Titus is a small business owner and consultant to businesses, nonprofits, and associations. Previously, he served as an Advisor in the Trump Administration and as a Policy Advisor to President Trump’s Super PAC. His writing has appeared in National Review, Fox News, The Hill, RealClearPolitics, and other publications.
Kristina Edmunson has been everything from press assistant for Governor Kulongoski, media advance associate for Vice President Biden, and communications director for Attorney General Rosenblum. Born and raised in Eugene, she has been involved in some of the biggest policy and legal decisions in Oregon over the last decade. Today, she runs her own communications practice. She speaks only for herself in her contributions to The Liftoff.
Senator Cedric Hayden is District 6 - Fall Creek, not Rosenberg.